Thread by @PremLeaguePanel

🔎 Thread - the process of Liverpool’s decline did not start this season. This has been several years in the making & a common theme of Klopp being left short in the transfer market. A thread on why the bottleneck for Liverpool’s success is at ownership level.

Now to start this story, we must go back to the 2018 transfer windows and the lauded buys of VVD & Alisson. 2 key pieces to winning trophies.But ultimately funded by the freak £130m sale of Philippe Coutinho.Henry himself admitted both buys wouldn’t have been possible without it.

These buys were not a result of ownership ambition. It was capitalising on the perfect storm of: A) Klopp developing an inconsistent player to one who then had world class output, B) PSG supplying a careless Barcelona with an exorbitant £200m for Neymar.

Coutinho leaving in January 2018, left LFC short of attacking depth. Mané-Firmino-Salah had little support & it proved costly in the 2018 CL final. With Salah injured (after LFC had started well), Klopp shoehorn e midfielder Lallana at RW. LFC did not look the same team & lost.

In fact with VVD’s fee being completely covered by Coutinho in January 2018, there should have been £ to spend on a replacement for the Brazilian (particularly with Sturridge leaving on loan too), but in a familiar theme to come, Klopp was left short & a trophy left on the table.

In summer 2018: Alisson joined (covered by Coutinho), with Fabinho, Keita & Shaqiri. This was one window where FSG had a respectable net spend of £127m. However the fact this is a window which is looked at as being abnormal for a club who generates huge revenues, is telling.

As examples, even clubs like West Ham had a £148m net spend & Forest £140m during the summer 2023. This type of window in 2018 should be the bare minimum for a club who generates as much revenue as Liverpool, but it in fact was an anomaly.

In fact, the issue of Coutinho not being replaced again in the summer 2018 remained an issue in 2018/19. LFC were near flawless but lost the title by 1 point. There were several draws including the two 0-0s in March vs Man Utd & Everton, where LFC couldn’t break the deadlock.

There was simply not enough attacking depth in the squad to call on. Sturridge (shadow of his peak self & injury-prone),Shaqiri (£13m punt & Origi were the options. In fact, it almost cost LFC the CL. Klopp somehow produced a 4-0 miracle vs Barca with a Shaqiri-Origi-Mané front 3

Next was the worst window of them all - the summer 2019 window. After winning the CL, LFC failed to use their status & bought one senior outfield players - Adrian. Even this “buy” (for free) was laced with irony.

Mignolet (a solid backup) was sold for £6m & replaced with a free transfer in Adrian - another measly cost-cutting measure. Pennies (in football terms) but it ended up costing a whole trophy with Adrian’s 2 errors vs Atléti sending them out the CL when they were at their peak.

LFC won the PL in 2019/20 so some said the window of buying nobody didn’t cost them. But this misses the point- lack of squad refreshment in previous windows is why the LFC squad is as stale as it is today.Btw,Klopp somehow won the PL with just Origi & Shaqiri as attacking depth.

Summer 2020 brought in Jota, Tsimikas & Thiago (all good buys), but it was a familiar story of Klopp being left short & effectively exchanging squad depth in one area for losing it in another.Lovren was sold to fund the above buys & in what proved a fatal choice,was not replaced.

The freak situation of VVD, Matip & Gomez all being injured for the season occurred by January & LFC went from leading the title race to a top 4 battle in a few weeks. Gomez & Matip were already known to be injury-prone, so the choice not to replace Lovren was always a big gamble

Not only did LFC take this gamble but they didn’t even rectify it in January.The CBs they brought in were Kabak & Davies. Players who have gone on to play averagely for Norwich & Sheff Utd since- total cost of £0.5m.Klopp somehow scraped top 4 using Williams/Phillips/Kabak at CB.

The summer 2021 window was a familiar story of exchanging depth in one area for depth in another area. Konaté was brought in to finally address the CB issue. However, stalwart Wijnaldum (who provided the defensive balance & ball retention in midfield) was lost & not replaced.

This came after the Thiago-Fabinho-Wijnaldum midfield trio had such a brilliant run at the end of the previous season to get LFC top 4. The importance of Wijnaldum’s profile has always been clear. Liverpool suddenly became much easier to counter-attack.

This was clear in high scoring draws vs Brentford & Brighton and a loss vs West Ham. Whenever Keita or Thiago were not available to play the left-sided 8 role, Liverpool struggled - 18 out of LFC’s 22 dropped points came when this was the case, due to poor on & off-ball control.

Both Keita & Thiago were known to have bad injury records so not strengthening in midfield was an exact replica of the 2020 debacle of not buying another CB to cover for the injury-prone Gomez/Matip.

There was also another issue - Henderson had declined yet he still started 29 PL games. 7 G/A in those games (as the most attacking midfielder in the 4-3-3) & a decline in high speed running distances. It culminated in his poor CL final performance. LFC were 2 midfielders short.

This was also clear in most matches LFC played vs the top 4- their midfield got outclassed regularly.They won just 1 of 9 games vs them & not by coincidence it was with the Thiago-Fabinho-Keita trio all fit (very rare) vs City in the FA Cup semi.The area to improve was midfield.

But yet again in summer 2022, the midfield was not addressed (similar pattern to not addressing attacking depth in 2018 & 2019). And with Fabinho in decline,Henderson so far beyond being useful as a PL starter & Thiago/Keita’s injuries, LFC’s midfield is getting cut thru at will.

“LFC have 9 midfielders” is one rhetoric- Thiago/Keita/Ox injury prone. Henderson & Milner declined. Carvalho not a midfielder. Jones/Elliott not ready to be starters. And Fabinho in possible decline having carried the burden since Wijnaldum left. Quality/availability > quantity.

There’s also long-term impact on players that LFC caused by having inadequate depth during Klopp’s reign. Firmino, Robertson & Wijnaldum had indestructible bodies. But the lack of depth/rotation meant they were ran into the ground. All have had form dips/picked up more injuries.

Sadio Mané was perhaps another victim of this if you look at his huge playing load under Klopp & decline since 2020. Fabinho is very likely suffering this issue now - ironically Wijnaldum often filled in well for him at 6. Another chain reaction of not replacing the Dutchman.

There is also the elephant in the room that Klopp has too much loyalty by keeping declining players like Henderson & Milner.

This is certainly a fault of his but with FSG’s theme of not spending adequately previously, it seems convenient for them to just be content to go along with these decisions rather than encourage a different line of thinking.

Plus because of a constricted budget, there must be a sense of pressure for Klopp to only sign targets who are ‘absolutely perfect fits’ because he does not have the luxury of spending again to correct any errors. Hence a utopian mindset of targeting just Tchouameni & Bellingham.

Net spend summary under Klopp:
•2016/17 - £5m profit
•2017/18 - £10m profit
•2018/19 - £127m spend
•2019/20 - £31m profit
•2020/21 - £60m spend
•2021/22 - £52m spend
•2022/23 - £13m spend

£206m total net spend in 7 seasons.

For context: Man City’s total in the same period - £486m.
West Ham spent £148m alone in one transfer window.

Also recorded a video looking at LFC’s recruitment issues specifically related to this season. Check it out here: vm.tiktok.com/ZMFAwbEXq/