Thread by @jewtastiq

1 hour until polls close and *EXIT* results are published, am connected by VPN to Israel's 3 big news networks to watch it all, a beautiful day for Israeli democracy good luck to everyone 😍🇮🇱

Annual reminder: Headlines we will see from Israel in the next 2 hours are results of EXIT POLLS. They are *not elections results*.

Israel's votes will be counted overnight and only then will real election results filter in. Exit polls are done by professional pollsters ✌️

My prediction is a strong night for the right & center of Israel, there's a feeling the rug was pulled out from the right in the last election with a historic betrayal of voters, my gut says this will cause a slight boomerang and stronger results for the right than were expected.

Rumors are swirling in Israel that a major left wing party may not pass Knesset threshold and will not make parliament, that would be quite a shock.. Exit polls in a few mins from the beautiful State of Israel 🇮🇱

Initial *EXIT POLLS* from Israel show a Netanyahu Govt forming with between 61-62 parliament seats.

These are exit polls, but all 3 initial major polls point to a Netanyahu Government.

Both Likud and Yesh Atid, Netanyahau and Lapid have under-performed in exit polls by a seat or two, time will tell if that holds. The exit polls will be updated overnight as real results come in, before being overshadowed by *actual results*..

Very strong results for the religious & Zionist right. Former right winger Liberman who is the *cause of all the instability in Israel* for refusing to support Netanyahu has had a disastrous exit poll with only 4 seats. Very long exciting night ahead for Israel. 🇮🇱

The Zionist & Religious Right in Israel have 31 seats per some exit polls, that is a huge result.. I mean just staggering. Media is always talking about the Arab parties and the Arab vote but the real story in Israel is this block which is just going from strength to strength.

The Likud with 30-31, the Zionist Right & Religious Right in Israel with 31 etc in these polls.. This means that with the whole anti-Netanyahu block moving from right to center and left all those votes were replaced and filled by the religious Zionist right. Staggering.

Shifting sands: If you take the 62 of Likud + Religious Zionist right, and then you add Liberman 4, plus 4-5 from Gantz representing Saar and Elkin voters from anti-Bibi Likud it's 70+ right wing mandates in Israel - These are staggering numbers and that's a low-ball calculation.

If one were to project those numbers beyond the Netanyahu era, after Bibi it means there is 0 chance for the left to win elections with this electorate in Israel right now. Just saying, look behind the Yes Bibi No Bibi paradigm and you see the real currents in Israeli politics ✌️

Initial exit poll updates are showing the right wing religious Sephardi party SHAS going up to possibly 11 seats, 1st time in a long time they hit dual numbers, super strong showing.. Very intense and fits well with this thread.

Avigdor Liberman who's right wing party platform is essentially only based on opposition to Netanyahu looks like an Israeli truck ran over him tonight, his party and political future now hang by a thread as Israel awaits election results.

Veteran Channel 13 pollster Camil Fuchs says according to what he is seeing *early* - the radical left Meretz party is extremely close to not passing Knesset threshold, both Meretz and Liberman parties not making threshold would be the end of the anti-Netanyahu camp in Israel.

Channel 12 has Liberman now at 5 seats, also saying Meretz has fallen to 4 now on the verge of not passing into Knesset, and Labor party is down to 5 as well. The exit polls are updated all night in Israel as initial actual results begin to form. Both Chan 13+12 warning on Meretz

Channel 13 updated exit polls show Netanyahu camp still in excellent position 62 over Lapid's camp at 53. In the next few hours - actual results from Israel elections center will begin to flow to the public..

Both Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid are speaking at the same time in Israel on TV post election forcing networks to choose. Perfectly exemplifies why these 2 men struggle to lead the country, total incompetence.

Channel 12 has updated exit poll projections from all poll stations.

Netanyahu has gained a seat according to their projections, Yair Lapid has lost a seat and they say Meretz is at serious risk.

They have raised their projection for Bibi by +1.
62-53, identical to Channel 13.

A post about ambience. Forget the numbers for a sec, am watching on TV discussions over all 3 left parties eating each other over fact Meretz far left party may not make it into the parliament. Blaming Lapid, blaming Labor party, blaming Meretz. It's not an ambience of victory.

Just FYI: Real actual vote results have started to come out from the official Israel Elections center, and we will start to get a clearer picture on winners and losers in the next few hours 🥳 #IsraelElections2022

Very positive atmosphere at Likud HQ as Netanyahu addresses the crowd. Time will tell what the results are but a potential comeback of epic proportions is possible re: Netanyahu.

About 21% of the vote is counted in Israel but the results are really lopsided because of which poll centers have been counted, Netanyahu would have a 72 seat coalition per results right now, so not posting much about it until things settle with more vote sample. ✌️

One thing I'd like to stress, this is not simply a repeat of previous elections, there is a large increase in the turnout nationally, potentially hundreds of thousands of voters that did not cast votes in previous round. There could be dramatic results from that.

33% of Israel's vote counted and the right continues to dominate.. If the vote ceased now (it won't) Bibi would have a 72 seat coalition the Likud with 33 mandates, Lapid 22, RZP 16, SHAS 13, Gantz 12, UTJ 10, Liberman 5, Hadash 4, Labor 4

Raam, Meretz, Balaad - 0.

ISR TV have updated with 44% counted, the right is down a few seats nothing dramatic yet.. All the stations are broadcasting commentary as if Netanyahu has won, Israel's morning papers are also mostly projecting a Bibi win. Means nothing but the feeling is out there - palpable.

Drudge showing Bibi, Reuters showing BIBI, ISR TV now showing actual election counts and the screens project a BIBI govt, subject to change of course - currently sits at 68 seats which will fall some with 45% counted right now.

It is fair to say it is now understood that Lapid cannot win the election, the best he can hope for is that Netanyahu cannot form a coalition, resulting in a deadlock and another future election at which point Lapid would continue as placeholder PM.

WOW. Drama in Israel - 62% counted Netanyahu block still leads with 69 seats - But the real drama: The left wing Meretz party, Arab parties Balaad, and Raam all still below parliament threshold. Very serious, I expected at 62% some of them would have recovered. Intense.

WOW
Only 62% counted but a total collapse of the left in Israel at this point in the count.

Balaad 0, Raam 0, Meretz 0, Hadash 4, Labor 4.

4 is the threshold meaning the entire left of Israel is ON or UNDER parliament threshold at this point.
Just wow. #IsraelElections2022

80% reporting in Israel some minor changes. Raam passes threshold, Likud down 1, Lapid up 1, not much change overall Netanyahu block at 65 seats at this point in the count.

Almost all cast ballots have been counted in ISR. Remaining are the sealed early voting envelope ballots of soldiers, diplomats, prisoners etc.

Netanyahu block still ahead with 65 projected seat coalition, might come down but a very impressive showing for the Israeli right.