Goldman Sachs $GS just dropped a 70-page research on humanoid robots and predicts the humanoid market will be as big as the EV industry today by 2035, growing 94% a year to $154bn by 2035
Real-world AI leaders such as $TSLA & motion components manufactures are set to lead growth
Humanoid robot shipment could hit 1mm units by 2030, and have the potential to become the next widely adopted device (after smartphone/EVs)
$TSLA aims to make a useful robot as soon as possible, and ultimately “millions of units” of shipment
A typical humanoid robot has more than 40 joints. One joint can cost $500 - $1k. A price reduction of 50%~80% would be required to reach the $20k goal stated by @elonmusk
Labor shortage gap could be 126% filled by 2030, if humanoids can work an equivalent of 20hrs a day
Elderly caregiver demand gap could be 53% filled by 2035
The manufacturing skills gap in the US could result in a labor shortage of 2.1mm workers by 2030. 77% of manufacturers think they will have difficulties attracting and retaining manufacturing workers. Humanoid robot could effectively make up for the labor shortage in the US.
There is a very wide labor base for humanoid robots to tap into, 83mm manufacturing workers and 448mm service workers in OECD countries
Even if humanoid robots can tap into the 2.1mn labor gap by 2030, it would still serve as a very small share of OECD manufacturing workers
The world’s population is aging at an unprecedented rate with the percentage of people above 64 years old growing from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050
12% of the elderly in China are unable to carry out some activities of daily living and require caregivers in hospitals or aged care
About 27% of the elderly in Europe have severe difficulty in carrying out personal care or household activities.
Based on an ideal ratio of one caregiver per four elderly, future demand for global elderly caregivers, with 25mm/35mm/51mm incremental demand in 2035/40/50
$TSLA's lead in real-world AI will have synergies with humanoid robots
Humanoid robots can reach a two-year payback period in the factories during 2025-28 assuming they can work an equivalent of 20 hours a day
$TSLA Optimus hands are designed to be adaptive, to be able to grasp new objects that they haven’t been trained for before. The hands will be able to carry a 20 lb bag and grab smaller objects with precision.
As humanoid robots become more flexible, the need for motion modules will increase. The essential components include the controller, drive, transmission, and execution. Within the 28 fundamental degrees of freedom, $TSLA Bot has designed six distinct actuators
$TSLA AI Day 2022 was an illustration of the leading depth and breadth of Tesla’s engineering capabilities including hardware/software integration, custom silicon, and tools
$TSLA noted several areas where it will leverage the current AI expertise including use of Tesla Vision from the FSD project and the ASIC chip capability from Tesla vehicles.
$GS has a price target of $305 on $TSLA (40% upside). Tesla is positioned to capitalize on the shift to EVs, and the company’s vertically integrated solutions (incl. tight hardware/software coupling, charging network, and services) sets it up for both good volumes and profits.
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$TSLA Goldman Sachs just released a report to quantify the massive revenue opportunity around Tesla's $TSLA FSD & robotaxi, projecting Tesla could eventually derive tens of billions of dollars in revenue from FSD subs or up-front purchases. Key highlights from the report 👇🏼 🧵
For Tesla, a robotaxi would be built on Tesla’s low-cost next generation platform and lack a steering wheel, and a robotaxi could have either more cameras than current consumer Tesla vehicles (with some observers noting the front placement on the B-pillars can reduce visibility).
Tesla could have a cost advantage at scale vs. other AVs given the reduced sensor inputs and its ability to vertically integrate (including with its own ASICs on the vehicle).
The bottom line is that Tesla is among the leaders in autonomy technology, and in the long-term software & digital services can be a meaningful driver of the business. The latest $NVDA GPUs in addition to Tesla’s E2E neutral net approach could allow Tesla to iterate and develop the technology faster than we currently expect.
Revenue from robotaxis could be significant longer-term (table below) with a range of scenarios around trips per day, average revenue per trip, and number of robotaxis in operation.
$TSLA Goldman Sachs released a new research analyzing the impact of reduced Tesla vehicle prices. $GS expects the price reduction will drive stronger volumes (1.8m unites in 2023), and assigns $TSLA a buy-rated price target of $200 based on a 40x PE multiple of Q5-Q8 est. EPS🧵
1. Volume growth is important for Tesla’s vertically integrated model. Its new factories will offer attractive unit economics at scale
COGS per vehicle at the new Austin and Berlin factories over time will be closer to Shanghai than to Fremont in the low to mid $30K per vehicle
2. There are monetization opportunities for the installed base such as FSD and insurance
Each Tesla vehicle can be on the road for 10-15 years, based on how many miles its batteries typically last per the company's sustainability report