Thread by @nonlineargrowth

Goldman Sachs $GS just dropped a 70-page research on humanoid robots and predicts the humanoid market will be as big as the EV industry today by 2035, growing 94% a year to $154bn by 2035

Real-world AI leaders such as $TSLA & motion components manufactures are set to lead growth

Humanoid robot shipment could hit 1mm units by 2030, and have the potential to become the next widely adopted device (after smartphone/EVs)

$TSLA aims to make a useful robot as soon as possible, and ultimately “millions of units” of shipment

A typical humanoid robot has more than 40 joints. One joint can cost $500 - $1k. A price reduction of 50%~80% would be required to reach the $20k goal stated by @elonmusk

Labor shortage gap could be 126% filled by 2030, if humanoids can work an equivalent of 20hrs a day

Elderly caregiver demand gap could be 53% filled by 2035

The manufacturing skills gap in the US could result in a labor shortage of 2.1mm workers by 2030. 77% of manufacturers think they will have difficulties attracting and retaining manufacturing workers. Humanoid robot could effectively make up for the labor shortage in the US.

There is a very wide labor base for humanoid robots to tap into, 83mm manufacturing workers and 448mm service workers in OECD countries

Even if humanoid robots can tap into the 2.1mn labor gap by 2030, it would still serve as a very small share of OECD manufacturing workers

The world’s population is aging at an unprecedented rate with the percentage of people above 64 years old growing from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050

12% of the elderly in China are unable to carry out some activities of daily living and require caregivers in hospitals or aged care

About 27% of the elderly in Europe have severe difficulty in carrying out personal care or household activities.

Based on an ideal ratio of one caregiver per four elderly, future demand for global elderly caregivers, with 25mm/35mm/51mm incremental demand in 2035/40/50

$TSLA's lead in real-world AI will have synergies with humanoid robots

Humanoid robots can reach a two-year payback period in the factories during 2025-28 assuming they can work an equivalent of 20 hours a day

$TSLA Optimus hands are designed to be adaptive, to be able to grasp new objects that they haven’t been trained for before. The hands will be able to carry a 20 lb bag and grab smaller objects with precision.

As humanoid robots become more flexible, the need for motion modules will increase. The essential components include the controller, drive, transmission, and execution. Within the 28 fundamental degrees of freedom, $TSLA Bot has designed six distinct actuators

$TSLA AI Day 2022 was an illustration of the leading depth and breadth of Tesla’s engineering capabilities including hardware/software integration, custom silicon, and tools

$TSLA noted several areas where it will leverage the current AI expertise including use of Tesla Vision from the FSD project and the ASIC chip capability from Tesla vehicles.

$GS has a price target of $305 on $TSLA (40% upside). Tesla is positioned to capitalize on the shift to EVs, and the company’s vertically integrated solutions (incl. tight hardware/software coupling, charging network, and services) sets it up for both good volumes and profits.