Thread by @Athan_K

It appears the GOP may have 350,000 more voters turnout than projected while the DEMS may fall 200,000+ voters short of projections. That’s a net-shift of 550,000 voters in favor of Republicans. Let me explain… (1/29)

Let’s start with the GOP. Experts projected about 1,000,000 republicans would vote in the ’22 Primary. They reached that number by presuming any republican who voted in 2 of the last 4 primaries would vote in the 2022 Primary. (2/29)

1,000,000 voters is an incredibly large number for a Midterm Primary. By comparison, about 825,000 republicans voted in the Red Wave ’10 Primary. (3/29)

With highly competitive primary races for US Senate and Governor this year, experts felt safe projecting 1,000,000 2022 Republican Primary voters. Plus, it’s always better to talk to more voters than less voters. (4/29)

Nonetheless, 1,354,288 Republicans voted in the 2022 GOP Primary! (5/29)

That’s 350,000 more republicans than the already insane turnout projection of 1,000,000 Republican Primary voters. Who were these extra 350,000 republicans? (6/29)

It doesn’t take a political scientist to deduce that @dougmastriano brought them to the polls. These are the same voters who turned out for Trump in ’16 and ’20 but stayed home in ’18. They are almost certain to vote in November to finish the job. (7/29)

As for the Democrats, operatives and the MSM have touted the Mail-In Ballot application disparity between Democrats and Republicans. While it’s greater than 3:1 in favor of the Democrats, that statistic is irrelevant. (8/29)

PA Republicans do not Vote by Mail. Unlike states like Florida which implemented and refined Mail-In Ballots over time to build trust, the hurried implementation in PA during the pandemic yielded lawsuits and other confusion. Republicans simply don’t trust it. (9/29)

Believing Mail-In Ballots to be a powerful tool to get infrequently voting Democrats to cast ballots, intense resources were invested by the Left to persuade Democrats to opt-in to the system. The pandemic was lighter fluid for the enrollment efforts. (10/29)

How good were the PA Dems at Mail-In ballot enrollment? In 2020, nearly half of Philly Dems Voted By Mail! (11/29)

The irony is that Philly, where most voters are no more than a couple of blocks away from a polling station, used the mail-in ballot convenience at the largest rate. (12/29)

The Democrats’ hope was that once a Democratic voter was enrolled to Vote By Mail, would they do it repeatedly. Could the Democrats train their voters, especially the infrequent voters, to always opt-in? (13/29)

The answer is mixed, but with mostly bad news for the Democrats. Let’s look at Philly… (14/29)

In Nov 2020, 578,991 Philly Democrats voted…with 281,510 of them using Mail-In Ballots. That’s 48.52% of total Philly Democratic turnout using Mail-In Ballots. (15/29)

If the Democrats wildest dreams come true, all of those 281,510 Philly Dems would re-enroll to Vote By Mail in subsequent years. The result would be to “Un-purple” Pennsylvania and make it permanently “Blue,” especially in lower turnout years. (16/29)

This November, only 164,576 Philly Dems applied to Vote By Mail. The typical return rate for Democrats to return mail-in ballots is around 85%. So, 15% of those 164,576 applicants likely won’t cast any ballot at all. (17/29)

So, it’s really about 140,000 Philly Democrats who will Vote By Mail in 2022. 140,000 is LESS THAN HALF of the total number of 2020 Philly Dems who used Mail-In Ballots. (18/29)

It gets worse for the Dems. About 450,000 Philly Dems are expected to vote in 2022. If Philly Dems used Mail-In Ballots at the same rate as they did in 2020, that means about 215,000 Philly Dems should have applied to Vote By Mail (450,000 * 48.52%). (19/29)

When you take the difference between the number of Philly Dems who should have applied to Vote by Mail (215,000) and how many actually did apply to Vote By Mail (140,000), it yields a deficit of about 75,000 votes. That’s a lotta votes. (20/29)

Were the Democrats wrong in assuming that their voters would adopt Mail-In Ballots as their preferred method? No, in fact they were quite right. (21/29)

While the same raw count of Democrats have not applied to Vote By Mail compared to 2020, most counties saw the same percentage of Democrats apply to Vote by Mail against likely turnout of all Democrats in that county. (22/29)

In 14 Pennsylvania counties, Democrats actually exceeded their Vote By Mail application rate against projected turnout. It is no coincidence those 14 counties are the most rural in Pennsylvania. (23/29)

In 50 PA counties, Dems applied to Vote By Mail within 10% against projected turnout. Meaning in 75% of PA’s Counties, Dems really have adopted Vote by Mail as “How They Vote Now.” They nearly all rural counties, where Vote By Mail is a true convenience. (24/29)

But, something very bad happened for Democrats in Philly, Allegheny, MontCo, DelCo, Chester, Dauphin Centre and 10 other of the most populated counties, which is where most Democratic voters live. (25/29)

When you take the “Philly Trend” across all of Pennsylvania, the Democrats are short about 200,000 voters. (26/29)

Maybe these Democratic voters will show up at the polls on Tuesday? Doubtful, as republicans lead democrats in voter intensity by double digits. (27/29)

So, potentially 200,000 fewer Democrats and 350,000 more Republicans in the 2022 Midterm could make for some Midterm surprises. (28/29)

Here’s the raw data. (29/29)
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…