Thread by @wartranslated

Russian regions pay their taxes in blood

Summary of Dmitry Oreshkin (Russian political scientist) interview on Populiarnaia Politika by @Anastasiya1451A

wartranslated.com/russian-region…

A discussion on Putin's nuclear blackmail, shifting responsibility to the regions and Ksenia Sobchak (Putin’s goddaughter who became a suspect in a criminal case of extortion of money and left Russia).

▪️ Putin’s nuclear blackmail

The Russian ministry of defence and propagandists were recently pedlling the idea of a potential use of a “dirty bomb”, which would be detonated in Ukraine leading to contamination of part of the territory with radioactive material.

We already know that the Kremlin is neither to be trusted nor believed and that these declarations are just an attempt to blackmail Ukraine and the West.

Yet at a more fundamental level, the nuclear (or radiological) blackmail is a sign of desperation from the Kremlin.

Russian leadership knows that sooner or later they will be forced to leave Kherson. For the same reason, Putin started the mobilization. He doesn’t want to lose, and his only chance is to somehow convince Ukraine and the West of a ceasefire and negotiations.

Thus, the blackmail and attempt to scare Ukraine with hoards of mobilized or a nuclear attack.

It seems that the Russian threats to destroy the Kahovskaja dam and flood the Kherson regions are also just that – a desperate attempt by Russia to avoid losing the war and force negotiations.

Of course, no one in Ukraine or the West believes a word of what Shoigu and the Russian leadership in general say. Putin has already used the threat of nuclear war 7 times, also clarifying during his last address that “it’s not a bluff”.

The Russian nuclear blackmail just doesn’t work anymore.

Moreover, the West understands that 1) Ukraine is interested in the liberation of its territories and not in a ceasefire that only benefits Russia; and 2) it was made clear by the international community that Russia will face responsibility and catastrophic consequences for any…

…attack against Ukraine or provocation involving nuclear/radiological bomb.

▪️ End of the federation and return to the feudalism

The Russian economy is in shambles and now the financing of the regions is being cut dramatically, with the regions expected to pay taxes to the federal fund and solve all their own problems.

Of 85 regions only 20 are profitable or at least do not require constant subsidies to run the local economy and social program. In the Russian “federal” system the regions don’t have a say in the funding assignment and money re-distribution.

The Russian system is indeed transitioning from pseudo-federal to a fully feudal system – rich regions are paying taxes in money that is then distributed between Kremlin and Putin’s favourite vassals, e.g. Kadyrov.

At the same time the poor regions, such as Tuva or Buryatiya pay their taxes to Moscow in blood – sending men to the war with Ukraine.

“This is not federalization, but an attempt to return to what is called a dual political regime in terms of medieval chiefdoms”

At the same time while federal funding is cut to the minimum regional governors need not only to find funds to keep the lights on, to compensate for inflation, sanctions and mass removal of the workforce (either through mobilization or people fleeing Russia) but also to fulfil…

…newly assigned “rebuilding” of the annexed territories. Each region of Russia and the large city was obligated to chip in and fund the “reconstruction” of cities destroyed by the Russian army, such as Mariupol.

This brutal system of economic and social injustice can lead people from Bashkiria or Dagestan to start asking themselves a question: “do Why we get no money from the federal budget for our region, yet we are the first to be sent to die on the frontlines?”

Even if for now the local governors are assigned and thus absolutely compliant with the Kremlin’s policies, the discontent with Kremlin in the regions is growing.

When the regime falls this feudal system will result in clashes between different regions based on national, ethnic and religious bases, eventually risking a future civil war. Of course, if Putin cared for such catastrophic consequences, he wouldn’t have started this war.

▪️ Sobchak – evacuation or infiltration

Ksenia Sobchak, the goddaughter of Putin, fled Russia. Police searched the vacation home of Sobchak but she was probably tipped off and fled to Lithuania.

Some say that this is a clever ploy to allow Sobchak to infiltrate the West as a Russian agent. On the other hand, it might be a sign of infighting in the Russian elite.

Sobchak that represented a more “liberal” wing of the power elite was ousted by the pro-military/conservative faction, represented by the FSB, generals and warlords surrounding Putin.

The fact that Putin cannot prevent attacks on those who are effectively his kin shows that he is losing control over his henchmen.