Dean Baker Profile picture
Nov 4 4 tweets 1 min read
#jobsday On the whole, this is a very positive report. The job growth is somewhat higher than can be sustained over the long-term, but not hugely so.
Sectors that had trouble hiring, most notably health care, are catching up.
Most importantly from an inflation perspective, wage growth is now very close to being at a non-inflationary pace.
The annual rate over the last three months was 3.9 percent. That compares to 3.4 percent in 2019, when inflation was comfortably below the Fed's 2.0 percent target

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More from @DeanBaker13

Nov 7
Since the NYT is running its piece again on how young people and minorities are being prevented from owning homes, I'm reposting my piece on the government data (apparently not available to NYT reporters) showing homeownership rates rose sharply since the pandemic.
Young people, Blacks, Hispanics, and lower income households (below the median) all saw big gains in homeownership
sorry, here's the link cepr.net/its-five-days-…
Read 8 tweets
Nov 5
I know that the economics profession has a big recession lobby, but what's the argument for further rate hikes, rather than a Fed pause, after Friday's jobs report?
The annualized rate of wage growth was 3.9 percent over the last three months. This is only modestly higher than what we saw in 2019, when inflation was comfortably below the Fed's target.
Furthermore, given the huge shift to profits in the pandemic, companies can easily absorb slightly higher pay growth, without passing it on in prices, as margins fall back to pre-pandemic levels.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 4
#jobsday share of workers working two full-time jobs, fell sharply. (This is a Washington Post measure of economic distress -- although it actually rises in good times)
I assume that the Washington Post will have a major piece on how workers' plights have improved.
If it's not clear, I am being sarcastic. The WaPo had an absurd piece saying that the record number (not share) of people working two full-time jobs was a sign of people not being able to make ends meet. The actual record was in 2000, at the peak of the Internet boom.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 23
The WaPo is working overtime to trash the economy under Biden. Here's a homepage headline about expected Q3 growth:
washingtonpost.com/business/2022/…
This requires a massive WTF? How do people "notice" economic growth? Most people are not reading the latest monthly data releases from the Commerce Department.
The economy added 1.1 million jobs in the quarter as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent. It's possible people would have noticed that.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 8
The idea that the economy is terrible under Biden is an invention of Republicans and the major media outlets, tens of millions of families have seen substantial improvements in living standards cepr.net/the-good-news-…
I have had several people respond to this by pointing out the recent plunge in the stock market. The stock market measures the discounted expected value of future corporate profits.
It generally falls when interest rates rise (that's the "discounted" part, the discount is the interest rate). Interest rates were at extremely low levels in 2020-21 because the economy was very weak.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7
The New York Times, like CNN, NPR, WaPo and other mainstream news outlets has been absolutely relentless in pushing the bad economy story ever since Joe Biden entered the White House.
Today, we got a piece headlined< "the job market has been like musical chairs. Will the music stop?" nytimes.com/2022/10/07/bus…
The piece raises the reasonable point that the Fed is trying to slow the economy and weaken the job market. It raises the concern, that I and others have made endlessly, that it will go too far.
Read 10 tweets

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