One of the most outrageous bonds out there must be the $1bn lent to Ghana in 2015 at 10.75% interest with a $400m guarantee from the World Bank.
A buyer of the bond in 2015 is already guaranteed to get $1.15bn. And they are still 'owed' $1bn, and $860m of interest payments / 🧵
2 / Interest payments on the bond have been $752.5m from 2016 to 2022. And if Ghana stops paying, the World Bank will pay $400m to bondholders: so $1.15bn in total, guaranteed.
3 / But if Ghana does keep paying until the bond matures in 2030, that's another $860m in interest, and the $1 billion of principal.
4 / What on earth was the World Bank doing, guaranteeing a bond with such a high interest rate? Once again, speculators must have been laughing all the way to the bank.
Even the IMF criticised the deal, saying that the
terms of the bond “were worse than expected”
5 / The cost to Ghana is even higher because the World Bank has charged a 0.75% fee for the guarantee every year. That's a further $45m Ghana has had to pay for a ridiculously expensive loan
6 / This is more context for any owners of Ghana's $ bonds complaining about 'losses' over coming weeks, months or years
The IMF have released their Debt Sustainability Assessment for Zambia, including information on how much debt needs to be cancelled. Summary is:
- a lot 2022-2025
- a bit 2026-2031
- but lots of payments could be shifted to 2031 on…
The Fund say the restructuring, alongside spending cuts and tax increases, need to bring debt risk to moderate by 2025.
This means external debt payments need to stay below 14% of government revenue (though the Fund allows them to be over this level in 2022, 2023, 2026 and 2031)
The Fund used to allow debt risk to be high after a restructuring. Civil society called for risk to be reduced to at least moderate, and now the Fund has said this for the three Common Framework restructurings Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia jubileedebt.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
The IMF have released 135 pages on how they assess debt sustainability but it's all smoke and mirrors - on page 100 they admit it's all secret.
They can't be held to account, so are likely to keep on bailing out private lenders as in the 1980s, Greece 2010, Argentina 2018 etc
How the IMF decides whether or not a debt is sustainable is crucial because if it is, the IMF can lend. If not, they can only lend if a debtor restructures or defaults on the debt.
The IMF has a long history of saying debt is sustainable when it clearly isn't. The new IMF loans pay off previous lenders, while the country concerned remains in debt crisis. This happened in the debt crisis of the 1980s, Greece in 2010, Argentina in 2018 and many more cases.
All creditors needs to take part in debt cancellation. But Western governments and private lenders focus on China to deflect from their own responsibility.
12 of the 22 African countries with the highest debts are paying private lenders over 30% of their total external debt payments In contrast, debt payments to Chinese lenders are over 30% in just six of the 22 countries