JChoe Profile picture
Nov 5, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
You might have a feeling, looking at a complex issue flattened to a sound bite, that there's some basic lie being told.

But it seems like a subjective distinction; it seems "squishy", like it's going to change depending on who's looking.

That feeling is valid, and not squishy.
Start with some basic combinations.

If we have two "toy" alphabets, we can observe some basic rules with them.
The difference in information entropy, or, to oversimplify (again), complexity, is very simple in these terms:

It's the difference in informational value for a letter from a 3-letter alphabet, versus a letter from a 9-letter alphabet.

It's quantifiable.
That's all the math we need to do, relax :)

We get a fairly quick and interesting payout from that math:

We can start to use it to decode art and, by extension, memes.
What we're getting from this walk through math-land and into art, is a way of understanding something that's very hard to pin-down for most people; really, damn near ineffable.

What you're getting, fundamentally, is reaffirmation of your gut instinct - your "bullshit detector".
It's like, sometimes you just feel like there's something *gut-instinct wrong* about seeing an issue flattened to a neat little phrase, or a gesture, or a stupid expression.

There is a basis to that.

That's a sign of something.
In these operations we're running on #parmesanGirl, and now #brie, where we're identifying and calling out large-scale lies (e.g., disinformation) you know that feeling you get sometimes, like, "it can't be this simple & easy?"

That feeling is not only valid, it's quantifiable.
fixed slide:

I'll stop breaking the thread :)

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More from @JoohnChoe

Sep 26
Really? This is it? This is the JD Vance dossier that Iran hacked that no one wanted to publish?

One, this is a hideously ordinary oppo file; I'm going to straight-up guess here that there wasn't even any attempt to insert misinfo into this mixture because it's so obvious

1/6Image
Two, look how Republicans realized that he had painfully stupid positions on childless people and women generally and still picked him

They realized, for instance, surprise surprise, he's against childcare assistance for low income peopleImage
Some of this stuff we've gone over in public, like his asinine views on taxing childless people more; other stuff I don't think has really seen public attention in '24, like his views on abusive marriages. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 25
Four lessons I've absorbed from involvement in political discourse these past eight years at various levels:

1) I did competitive debate in high school and ran a debate startup as an adult, so I enjoy argument and debate, but I really, really, really rarely ever engage in it. This is as much due to lack of people capable of engaging in dispassionate good-faith debate as it is the inappropriacy of actual point-by-point debate as a tool for most forms of outreach.

People just don't have the note-taking skills capable of tracking an actual debate or attention span for more than 5-7 items in short-term memory - and that is nothing curmudgeonly about, like, how dumb people are these days, hurr durr.

It's more about debate. Like, this way of reading evidence - in order to be able to accommodate more evidence into an argument - is the same way I learned to do it, which is the same way my debate coach learned to do it, and near as I can figure out, it's been that way since somewhere between the 1960s to the 1980s depending on who you ask.

It's more like you have a higher burden not to add to the info-glut that everyone has to cope with.
wsj.com/video/this-deb…
2) most of what people consider "debate" is debate the same way that what people do in nightclubs is "dance"; there's absolutely no question that it's certainly a form of dance, and that it's fine and even really good by itself to do things like dance occasionally with no concern for how it looks.

But if you look at ballet, or the way that dance has evolved in the late 20th century and early 21st, it's recognizably different and in some ways finer than these other acts we group under "dance".

This is also the case with debate; if you want to call online arguments resolved through, essentially popularity and sophistry contests a debate, that's fine, but the way that lawyers, or for that matter high-level NDT, CEDA or high-school policy debaters argue is recognizably different and in many ways, I'd argue, finer.Image
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3) if you ever find people who engage in good-faith debate - as in, they can disagree with each other on matters of not only fact but also opinion, without being subverted by sophistry or exploited by bigotry (or both, frequently both) then whatever you do *keep those people around* and nurture the relationship you have with them.

That's not so much your neighborhood as it is your garden - you have to keep it up with stimulating topics and funny things to be into and interesting things to talk about, keep the weeds out with 'blocks' and nurture it along with content. It's about processes, not confrontations.

And, finally...Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 23
If you assert that some kind of psy-op or staged assassination event is going on with the would-be Trump assassin (the second one, not the first) you have a pretty tall hill to climb on that, and it quite easily falls apart when facts like this emerge.

I believe this may be a very, very special level of stupid right here.

Let me walk you through what you're seeing: that is basically an AKM receiver in a sporter stock and it appears to have a scope that is attached with either rubber bands or electrical tape. For some reason, I'm guessing as a kind of rudimentary sun shade, there is a paper tube on Routh's scope which would crumple up against his eye if he actually fired it.

It takes you a second to grasp the full, almost monstrous stupidity of what you're seeing - at the front of the rifle, Routh appears to have built up a 'hump' of electrical tape on which the objective end of the scope rests. I'm honestly surprised he could even sight that in, because if you shoot it like that, I'm fairly confident the scope will fall off within a few shots, I can't imagine it would hold zero.

As suspected, this is a 7.62 x 39mm weapon which makes a shot at 400-500 yards unlikely bordering on implausible, especially with that scope setup. He would probably have been better off with iron sights quite frankly.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. This is why you wait for facts.

I'd hesitate to say "every time", but it seems like 99% of it, rushing to a conclusion that sounds cool for temporary clout is going to result in being wrong, publicly, and that is happening, right now, with all the conspiracy theorists who were breathlessly foaming at the mouth speculating a mere week ago.

Believe it or not, sometimes, random bad things just happen more intensely during a certain period of time, as an intended or, frequently, unintended consequence of people trying engineer some political effect by strategically riling people up. This is the nature of "stochastic" violence.

Jump to conclusions for clout and you end up looking like a charlatan and fool real easy, like a lot of people out there are right now - if they even understand, I suspect the liberal conspiracy theory crowd isn't exactly good at understanding firearms design, deployment scenarios & TTPs.

Yeah no that's the weapon your boy was gonna do a 500m sniper shot with lol

Right through the Secret Service bubble

Very plausible, what a great theoryImage
It's a common mistake in people who have never tried to understand guns; nobody ever realizes what a big deal scopes and scope mounts are

An easy rule of thumb in precision rifle shooting is, you spend as much as, if not more, on your scope than you do your rifle

And scope mounts are a huge deal. These are scope mounts from Spuhr, Larue and Nightforce, this would be what a knowledgeable private citizen shooter would use; I'm pretty sure the cheapest one is $250

Image 4 is a rail that goes on the top of the SKS and attaches to the front sight base, which is anchored to the front trunion, I believe, which makes it at least somewhat capable of holding zero

Any of these would at least be a plausible setup

What you're seeing from Routh is a jackass with a stunning level of ignorance of rifleryImage
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This is what an AK platform rifle set up for at least an attempt at medium-to-long range shooting looks like

There are probably rifles in service, right now, in Ukraine, that look like this

It uses the side clamp rail, it uses a scout rifle scope with generous eyebox, exit pupil and eye relief in a cantilever mount, it has an aftermarket railed forend to which, notice, an actual bipod is attached, unlike Routh's rifle

It's still 7.62 x 39 I believe but at least you'll be able to see where you're hitting with Routh's setup I don't think you'd even see that; he didn't even have a spotting scope with himImage
Read 11 tweets
Sep 22
NAFO addresses a fundamental gap in information war defense strategy.

We know - as in, the newsreading public knows - that that Russian intelligence agencies are running influence ops that target American civilians. but there's no civilian response strategy.

1/6

---

Sources:

Collier, Kevin, "Russian propagandists are still targeting Americans in influence operations, Meta says", NBC News, Aug 18 2024

Kelley, Michael J., "Understanding Russian Disinformation and How the Joint Force Can Address It", May 29 2024

Myers, Steven Lee & Barnes, Julian E., "U.S. Investigating Americans Who Worked With Russian State Television", Aug 21 2024 nbcnews.com/tech/security/…
publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/A…
archive.is/https://www.ny…
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and this is one such claim.

To be clear, I am asserting that:

1) America is in a social-media information war with Russia,

2) we are losing, insofar as that war has compromised at least one major political party in America to the point that one of its elected members has stated so publicly on live national TV (the House Intelligence Committee chair, actually) and

3) we need civilian digital movements (similar to NAFO, if not NAFO itself) as defensive countermeasures in order to not lose that information war

Such evidence is, luckily, not lacking with regard to Russian cyberwar & influence efforts targeting Americans, nor for NAFO efficacy at this point in 2024.

---

Sources:

Anonymous FBI Special Agent, "Affidavit in support of seizure warrant", United States of America v. Certain Domains, 2024,

Lotz, Avery, "House Intelligence Committee chair says Russian propaganda has spread through parts of GOP", CNN, Apr 7 2024


NAFO efficacy
1. Braun, Stuart, "Ukraine's info warriors battling Russian trolls", DW, Sep 17 2022,

2. McInnis, et al., "#NAFO and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine", Center for Strategic & International Studies, Oct 5 2022,

3. Giles, Keir, "Humour in online information warfare: Case study on Russia’s war on Ukraine", NATO Hybrid Center of Excellence Working Paper No. 26, Nov 2023, p. 28, justice.gov/opa/media/1366…
cnn.com/2024/04/07/pol…
dw.com/en/nafo-ukrain…

hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/upl…Image
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The specific problem that NAFO addresses is information war practices against civilians in the U.S. and our partner states.

As suggested by its recurrent, widescale usage in 2015-2016, 2020, and 2022 until the present day, this is a truly industrial-scale operation.

Indictments and/or SDN designations against the Internet Research Agency, its principals, as well as its actual advertising data (they paid in rubles), as well as indictments & SDN designations against the Social Design Agency and its principals in 2024, all support this characterization.

---

U.S. vs. Netyksho, et al., 2018,

U.S. vs. Certain Domains, 2024,

Romm, Tony, "10 million people saw Russian ads on Facebook around the 2016 presidential election", Vox, Oct 2 2017,

Isaac, Mike & Wakabayashi, Daisuke, "Russian Influence Reached 126 Million Through Facebook Alone", The New York Times, Oct 20 2017,

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, "Social Media Advertisements", HPSCI website, May 10 2018,

Author, "Russian ads", May 2018, justice.gov/archives/sco/f…
justice.gov/opa/media/1366…
vox.com/2017/10/2/1640…
archive.is/https://www.ny…
democrats-intelligence.house.gov/social-media-c…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 16
See, it's actually interesting that this guy wasn't in NAFO.

A lot of the people I follow and who follow me are NAFO fellas, so as a result, I have social graph connections to most people involved in Ukraine war activism.

But my only three mutuals with that guy were three journalists who followed him after he attempted to assassinate Trump.

Remember, we have open membership, all you need to do is donate to Ukraine. I've been cautioning people for a minute about this, just assume that NAFO is already infiltrated; it won't do them much good the way it's structured anyway.

This guy even replied to Karen Dotcom and Black in the Empire, like a lot of NAFO fellas did. Yet no social graph connections.

I chalk up the oddness of it all to, Routh simply sucked at social media - I mean, did you see his tweets - but it's interesting that he sucked so bad, spammed so much, and never seems to have come across NAFOImage
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Here he is talking back to Karen Dotcom and Russian in the Black Empire or whatever

And still, no mutuals with that guy
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My follows lists are public, so

It literally looks like this

Yet no mutual connections with Routh Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 16
We don't have enough data to construct an account of the Trump assassination attempt.

But, I think we have enough to shoot some of the wilder, stupider theories.

What I have is:

- social media profiles (before they were deleted, I have video recordings I'm using for screenshots)

- interview in New York Times in '23 ()

- thread talking about him as a frankly grifty, unstable-sounding "recruiter" with a cockamamie plan to get Afghan troops into Ukraine (, also get a lawyer, please)

- a fairly good picture of his gear including a medium/high confidence assessment of weapon platform ()

From this let's test out a few of the theories:nytimes.com/2023/03/25/wor…

It's almost trivially easy to rebut some of the conspiracy theories, actually, even at our current imperfect state of knowledge mere hours out- remember, we haven't heard from the guy yet, and he was taken into custody alive. But some of the facts, as currently known, give the lie to such theories.

Conspiracy theory 1: Professional sniper
Almost totally disproven by choice of weapon platform. Assume a 9-inch vital zone (head, or solar plexus/midsection). With a (generously) 2.5 MOA AK-platform Saiga or SKS with a "sporterized" stock chambered in 7.62, you're looking at 10 inch CEP at 400 yards and nearly 50 MOA of drop.

The inaccuracy is bad enough: you could be aimed dead center at the vital zone, mathematically perfectly, and the sheer inaccuracy of the rifle would make you miss.

The equipment makes it more implausible. Assuming he's using, say, a 3-9x scope (say, a Leupold VX-6 popular with the low-budget crowd). That scope has only 60 MOA of adjustment (30 up, 30 down). Really nice scopes have 50 MOA up, 50 MOA down or so, I doubt he has one of those.

So, unless he has a 30 MOA canted scope mount, he wouldn't even be able to dial in his elevation because, realistically, people aren't shooting 7.62 x 39 out to 400 yards, they use 7.62 x 54R rifles (e.g., SVD Dragunov.

You hit a 9-inch plate at 400m with an AK-platform weapon in 7.62 x 39 at the range, people will probably buy you a beer. It's not easy.Image
Conspiracy theory 2: Some kind of, I don't know, Ukrainian assassin, it's too stupid to even pin down
Again, hard disproven by available evidence. Ukraine's International Legion denies he's ever recruited for them, other sources () state he wasn't even a recruiter.

Beyond merely the fact that he doesn't appear to have received any kind of training in Ukraine sufficient to make a miraculous 400m shot with a 7.62x39mm rifle - with no tripod, no bipod, no sandbag, no backpack to rest it on, I guess he as just kinda going to 'raw dog' it with his elbow? - the mere presence of his social media belies that.

Why would a professional assassin who worked for Ukarine leave up his social media where he supports Ukraine?

Conspiracy theory 3: Angry liberal
Social media posts as available suggest this isn't the case, this guy is all over the spectrum politically and he tweets repetitively, at high volume, on single days, usually frankly pathetic-looking requests for people to pay attention to him. The only constant with him is Tulsi Gabbard until '22, at which point he decides suddenly he doesn't tweet her.

During the aid bill fight, when Speaker Johnson held up Ukraine aid for months for an immigration deal that Trump ended up killing anyway, he didn't tweet about it once. If you're going by who he tweets at to determine his political orientation, you might as well call him a Ramaswamy/Haley Republican or for that matter a Sting supporter. For that matter, Routh did claim to have voted for Trump in '16, so you might as well call him a Trumper.

Or, perhaps a more parsimonious theory than some convoluted political ideology is, this guy was just an unstable loon.Image
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Read 4 tweets

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