Alpha_Ex_LLC Profile picture
Nov 5 7 tweets 3 min read
FOMC week is behind us. First a scorecard update. The realized moves of the $SPX on days around the meeting. Over the last 6 meetings, realized vol on meeting day is 36%. There have often been large moves the following day. Realized vol day of and day+1 is also 36%.
As @FerroTV pointed out, the most informative part of the presser might have been the “Bloomberg on delay” moment when a reporter told Powell the market was up in response to the statement and then asked how he thinks about that.
Adjusted for what we'd expect from a Fed Chair, the reaction was almost visceral. Fed views a market rally as inconsistent, even problematic, relative to necessary path. Much of the discussion over the preceding months has been about the need for tighter financial conditions.
Daily changes in the SPX and the GS FinCon Index are -80+% correlated. The correlations of the subcomponents of the index (short rates, long rates, USD, credit spreads and the SPX) have all intensified. Below, the SPX to DXY and SPX to 10y. so, Powell's reaction makes sense.
There’s a broader issue here and it’s tied to the unique nature of market prices. When updating live, prices are an instantaneous scorecard, the exact opposite of what @CliffordAsness calls #volatilitylaundering. Live prices impose themselves critically in two ways.
First, they create mark to market risk, which forces decision making, thank you UK Gilt crisis. Next, and this is where this week’s FOMC presser is so relevant, prices tell us what to believe. In that instant when the reporter may have had delayed quotes, Powell was forced to
entertain the idea that fincon was easing on the back of the statement/meeting so far (below, SPX & DXY intraday on 11/2). In this way, the live price has very unique impact. We all believe what we see and observe - and it is the most recent observation we assign most weight to.

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More from @Alpha_Ex_LLC

Oct 29
some commentary out there on Fed punting 2% target and suggesting that 3-4% is "good enough"...this misses how investors view inflation...there is a helpful corollary to the VIX...last year, we argued that embedded in much of Fed’s inflation assessment was a misunderstanding
of the nature of inflation time series. Like VIX, vol of inflation rises as inflation rises. When VIX gets to 40, market must assign much greater probability to the potential that it gets to 60. In a similar way, inflation isn’t the kind of asset that goes from 2 to 4% and then
happily treads along. The process of it reaching
that level means forces are at work that may push it higher still (as has occurred). Investors are forced to embed this inflation uncertainty into their asset pricing frameworks. As we are seeing, Fed must hedge this as well.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 26
the vol of a stock on its earnings day is roughly 2-4x its vol on non-earnings days. in their greedy attempts to profit, option traders know this and make adjustments specific to the day of expiry...here's MSFT vol by expiry before and after yday's earnings Image
lots of factors determine the clearing price of implied vol, but the "5 C's" is a good starting point. Carry matters most. "Calendar" is the pricing of an event we know is coming, like earnings. Sometimes the event is so big, it has large impact on even macro option pricing. Image
We might call these huge events (the Scottish Ref in 2014, Brexit in 2016, the US Election in 2016 among many others) an "earnings day for a country" because they create similar option pricing outcomes as occurs for a single stock around earnings release day.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 26
Market prices are not just a result, but a cause as well. Of course prices react to “new news” (CPI, earnings, FOMC, etc) But in doing so, prices then shape outcomes. There are 3 good examples. First, when a risk-off episode gets bad enough, policymakers react.
As they become financial firefighters, the puts you might own become vulnerable to their efforts to douse the flames. Success in fighting the fire is just about reducing risk premium levels and the vol you own is a main target.
The level of vol is so high as to be the chief problem. At some point, the policymaker response works (LTCM, GFC, EZ-Sov Crisis, Pandemic, Gilts(?). Distressed asset prices & high risk premia provide timely entry points and lots of margin of safety. Risk-off creates the risk-on.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 23
many aspects of human tendencies matter for investing. one is that we are conditioned to "over-extrapolate". For example, when we sit in heavy traffic for a long time stretch, it is challenging to envision driving at full speed again. Been there?
When it rains for days on end, blue skies become difficult to imagine. In the derivatives market, when realized volatility is especially and persistently low, recency bias complicates the process of thinking about risk.
This time, 5 years ago, we were approaching nearly a full year without a 2% move up or down in the SPX. This year so far, we've had 40. The absence of these moves in 2017 allowed the SVXY to rise 182% on a realized vol of 51. A tidy Sharpe of around 3, massive gains in AuM.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 20
The VVIX to $VIX ratio has taken out its low reached end of 2018 and is now below 3. What's does it mean? The ultimate low was 2 on 3/12/20 as VIX had already reached 75 but implied vol of vol hadn't fully surged yet. At 30 VIX, the low level of this ratio has little precedent.
Low VVIX is market saying "30 VIX is here to stay". It's also simply following low level of realized "vol of vol". Just as realized vol is the "earnings engine" for a long option strategy, realized vol of vol is same engine for an investor owning VIX options and delta hedging.
Going back the last 10 years, the 2m realized on the front VIX future is in the 12th %ile. Realized vol of vol drives implied vol of vol. What drives realized vol of vol? Market psychology maybe. Positioning as well (this feels pretty light in the VIX complex).
Read 5 tweets
Oct 20
*Geek Alert* Implied correlation is a metric often used to compare the pricing of index options relative to options on the single stocks that comprise the index. A high IC suggests the market anticipates that stocks will move together, which often is the case during vol events.
CBOE calculates a series of implied correlations on the SPX by strike. Below, the 3m 10d put IC (Bloomberg ticker: COR90D) and 3m 10d call IC (COR10D) and the spread between them. What do we observe? OTM put correlation is at a premium to OTM call correlation.
Makes sense in that market risk tends to accelerate in down moves. We especially see how this occurred during the XIV event. But, more recently OTM call implied correlation has been rising, even as the put correlation is modestly falling.
Read 4 tweets

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