First, a word on the ultimate 'parachute' candidate. When Churchill lost his seat in Manchester in 1908, he was immediately invited to stand in Dundee.
His welcome was mixed: suffragette Mary Maloney followed him round the city with a giant bell, drowning out his speeches...
Churchill represented five different constituencies, none very close to his Oxfordshire birthplace
His kind are rare now: research by @philipjcowley et al shows that more than half of all MPs were born in the region they now represent
Why? When party ties were stronger, you could get away with parachuting anyone, anywhere. You could pin a red rosette on a dog, the old saying goes, and working-class people would vote for it
Yet thanks to Brexit and Scotland, voters have become much more volatile (@BESResearch)
And if polls are to believed, voters will change their minds again in 2024. Now that party ties are looser, how do people choose their politicians?
Surprisingly, it turns out being from the same area is almost as important as having the same political viewpoint!
After Brexit and partygate, trust in politicians is not exactly sky-high. But you're still much more likely to trust your local MP than MPs in general or the government, data from @IpsosUK suggests
The rise of local candidates is impacting our political debate. Mentions of the phrase "my constituents" in the House of Commons are at their *highest ever level*, data from Hansard shows
This is great for representation. But the downside is that MPs have less time for national issues
And at a time when Rishi Sunak has tough decisions to make on topics like housing and public services, it strengthens nimbyism...
The "born locally" trend is set to continue
According to @MichaelLCrick@tomorrowsmps, of Labour's 38 candidates announced for 2024, just two have no local ties whatsoever. About 30 are councillors.
Are we artificially slimming the talent pool of available MPs?
For more on what this means for our politics, here's the full article in today's @thetimes
Post-1992 providers have been rapidly expanding business, law and computing courses. Yet the returns for students 5 years after graduating from these courses have, to date, been woeful
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This gap exists even when we partially adjust for A-level grades. Students with BBB at post-92 unis earn more than those with AAA at pre-92 institutions
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We cannot know for certain whether students going to post-1992 institutions would be better off not going to uni at all until the DfE releases the full LEO salary database.
But it is fair to question why former polys are expending low-value courses at such a rapid pace
NHS spending promises have, with the exception of the early 2010s, been consistently divorced from economic reality.
How long can this continue?
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The NHS budget in 2019 was £130bn. By 2025 it was £205bn. Even adjusted for inflation, that’s a rise of 24%
By 2029, it will reach £247bn, equivalent to about half of all Westminster-controlled day-to-day spending. A National Heath state.
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Inflation and pay rises have gobbled up the majority of that rise, while there has been an uplift in capital spending, which will probably be used to help plug a £16bn maintenance backlog…