Tom Calver Profile picture
Nov 6, 2022 10 tweets 7 min read Read on X
NEW: The rise of the local MP 🗳️

Chances are, your MP was born down the road. Local representation has never been stronger.

But there are downsides – especially now that the government needs to get things done. In today's Sunday Times @thetimes

🧵

thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-ar…
First, a word on the ultimate 'parachute' candidate. When Churchill lost his seat in Manchester in 1908, he was immediately invited to stand in Dundee.

His welcome was mixed: suffragette Mary Maloney followed him round the city with a giant bell, drowning out his speeches...
Churchill represented five different constituencies, none very close to his Oxfordshire birthplace

His kind are rare now: research by @philipjcowley et al shows that more than half of all MPs were born in the region they now represent
Why? When party ties were stronger, you could get away with parachuting anyone, anywhere. You could pin a red rosette on a dog, the old saying goes, and working-class people would vote for it

Yet thanks to Brexit and Scotland, voters have become much more volatile (@BESResearch)
And if polls are to believed, voters will change their minds again in 2024. Now that party ties are looser, how do people choose their politicians?

Surprisingly, it turns out being from the same area is almost as important as having the same political viewpoint!
After Brexit and partygate, trust in politicians is not exactly sky-high. But you're still much more likely to trust your local MP than MPs in general or the government, data from @IpsosUK suggests

The rise of local candidates is impacting our political debate. Mentions of the phrase "my constituents" in the House of Commons are at their *highest ever level*, data from Hansard shows
This is great for representation. But the downside is that MPs have less time for national issues

And at a time when Rishi Sunak has tough decisions to make on topics like housing and public services, it strengthens nimbyism...
The "born locally" trend is set to continue

According to @MichaelLCrick @tomorrowsmps, of Labour's 38 candidates announced for 2024, just two have no local ties whatsoever. About 30 are councillors.

Are we artificially slimming the talent pool of available MPs?
For more on what this means for our politics, here's the full article in today's @thetimes

With thanks to @philipjcowley @MichaelLCrick @GwynneMP @duncancbaker

thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-ar…

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More from @TomHCalver

Apr 6
🧵 NEW: The erosion of the graduate premium

The minimum wage is now £25k on a 40-hour week. From next year, £25k is also the threshold for repaying new student loans

There are many good reasons to go to uni - but does it still pay in the financial sense?

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When it comes to graduate earnings comparisons, we tend to focus on the earnings soon after graduating.

And here, the returns can look disappointing. Graduates in their 20s used to earn double the minimum wage - now the gap is just 40% and falling…

2/8 Image
And here’s what that distribution looks like when you remove tax, NI and student loan contributions - eek!

3/8 Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 30
NEW: Is Britain really a high tax country?

Our collective tax bill is at its highest share of GDP since the 1940s

But actually, the tax and NI paid by the average worker are at their lowest in decades.

What’s going on?

1/7 Image
This chart really surprised me. Back in 1990, the average worker lost 28% of their salary to tax and NI. But today, in high-tax Britain?

It’s just 19%…

2/7 Image
And actually, British workers keep much more of their wages compared with other countries.

If you think 19% is bad, spare a thought for the Australians (22%), the Americans (24%), and be grateful you don’t live in Belgium (36%)!

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 23
🧵 NEW: Why is Britain so skint?

We pay huge amounts of tax, yet the chancellor is expected to make widespread cuts. Where is all our money going?

My column, and a primer ahead of Wednesday

@thetimes

1/10 Image
After welfare and health, the 3rd-biggest category of spending isn’t education or defence, but debt interest

(terrific version at )

This has doubled over the past five years, meaning the government has £~50bn less to spend if it wants to balance books wheredoesitallgo.orgImage
Huge debt interest would be less of a problem if the economy was growing (like the US has been). Ours isn’t.

Look at GDP per capita - it’s still less in Britain than it was before the pandemic….

3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
NEW: What is the most common murder weapon?

It isn’t the gun, the machete or the zombie knife - but the kitchen knife.

Here’s why phasing out sharp-tipped knives isn’t as mad as it sounds.

1/5 Image
Why would changing kitchen knives make a difference?

Because crime is linked to opportunity. It’s easy to look at the latest knife crime epidemic and conclude that Britain is just becoming a more criminal society.

Actually, as I’ve written before, this isn’t really true

2/5 Image
Burglaries, car thefts and violence have plummeted since the 90s - a trend seen in many countries

The best explanation is that it got harder to commit these crimes. When security improved, burglaries fell. When CCTV became widespread, it got harder to get away with violence

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6, 2024
🧵NEW: Britain’s broken. But none of us can agree how - or why

Thanks to 50 years of the @IpsosUK issues tracker, I’ve looked at the UK’s biggest woes over time

It shows our concerns are becoming increasingly detached from personal experience @thetimes
thetimes.com/article/8d7d29…Image
It’s easy to be down about the state of the country.

But it is worth reflecting that many of the problems that dominated in the 70s, 80s, 90s - trade unions, inflation, education, even Europe - now barely register Image
The data - based on @IpsosUK grouping the responses into categories - reveals two interesting trends.

One is that people’s top concerns are changing much faster than they used to. Topics no longer dominate for months on end, like they used to Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28, 2024
NEW: Why ending the two-child limit on universal credit won’t stop child poverty

Child poverty in Britain is stubbornly high - particularly among large families - but a range of factors are to blame…

@thetimes

thetimes.com/article/1a73ad…
Image
First - how can child poverty be at record levels, when living standards have improved drastically since the 60s?

It is true that today’s children - even adjusted for inflation - are much materially better off than their parents / grandparents. But… Image
We use a “relative” measure - 60% of median - because it speaks to the experience of poverty

To paraphrase (and update) Adam Smith, a smartphone or pair of trainers aren’t necessary to modern life - the ancient Greeks did without - but you’d be ashamed to be without them today. Image
Read 9 tweets

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