Tom Calver Profile picture
Nov 6, 2022 10 tweets 7 min read Read on X
NEW: The rise of the local MP 🗳️

Chances are, your MP was born down the road. Local representation has never been stronger.

But there are downsides – especially now that the government needs to get things done. In today's Sunday Times @thetimes

🧵

thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-ar…
First, a word on the ultimate 'parachute' candidate. When Churchill lost his seat in Manchester in 1908, he was immediately invited to stand in Dundee.

His welcome was mixed: suffragette Mary Maloney followed him round the city with a giant bell, drowning out his speeches...
Churchill represented five different constituencies, none very close to his Oxfordshire birthplace

His kind are rare now: research by @philipjcowley et al shows that more than half of all MPs were born in the region they now represent
Why? When party ties were stronger, you could get away with parachuting anyone, anywhere. You could pin a red rosette on a dog, the old saying goes, and working-class people would vote for it

Yet thanks to Brexit and Scotland, voters have become much more volatile (@BESResearch)
And if polls are to believed, voters will change their minds again in 2024. Now that party ties are looser, how do people choose their politicians?

Surprisingly, it turns out being from the same area is almost as important as having the same political viewpoint!
After Brexit and partygate, trust in politicians is not exactly sky-high. But you're still much more likely to trust your local MP than MPs in general or the government, data from @IpsosUK suggests

The rise of local candidates is impacting our political debate. Mentions of the phrase "my constituents" in the House of Commons are at their *highest ever level*, data from Hansard shows
This is great for representation. But the downside is that MPs have less time for national issues

And at a time when Rishi Sunak has tough decisions to make on topics like housing and public services, it strengthens nimbyism...
The "born locally" trend is set to continue

According to @MichaelLCrick @tomorrowsmps, of Labour's 38 candidates announced for 2024, just two have no local ties whatsoever. About 30 are councillors.

Are we artificially slimming the talent pool of available MPs?
For more on what this means for our politics, here's the full article in today's @thetimes

With thanks to @philipjcowley @MichaelLCrick @GwynneMP @duncancbaker

thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-ar…

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More from @TomHCalver

Oct 6
🧵NEW: Britain’s broken. But none of us can agree how - or why

Thanks to 50 years of the @IpsosUK issues tracker, I’ve looked at the UK’s biggest woes over time

It shows our concerns are becoming increasingly detached from personal experience @thetimes
thetimes.com/article/8d7d29…Image
It’s easy to be down about the state of the country.

But it is worth reflecting that many of the problems that dominated in the 70s, 80s, 90s - trade unions, inflation, education, even Europe - now barely register Image
The data - based on @IpsosUK grouping the responses into categories - reveals two interesting trends.

One is that people’s top concerns are changing much faster than they used to. Topics no longer dominate for months on end, like they used to Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28
NEW: Why ending the two-child limit on universal credit won’t stop child poverty

Child poverty in Britain is stubbornly high - particularly among large families - but a range of factors are to blame…

@thetimes

thetimes.com/article/1a73ad…
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First - how can child poverty be at record levels, when living standards have improved drastically since the 60s?

It is true that today’s children - even adjusted for inflation - are much materially better off than their parents / grandparents. But… Image
We use a “relative” measure - 60% of median - because it speaks to the experience of poverty

To paraphrase (and update) Adam Smith, a smartphone or pair of trainers aren’t necessary to modern life - the ancient Greeks did without - but you’d be ashamed to be without them today. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 18
🧵 NEW: Why are salaries so much higher in the US than in Britain?

Both nation’s economies are going in very different directions - but there is more to headline differences than meets the eye…

@thetimes @KeiranSouthern the-times.co.uk/article/f8099f…

Image
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Using OECD headline figs for mean annual incomes, the differences are stark: £41,000 here, vs $77,000 in the US - about £61,000 in simple currency terms… Image
Data from @IndeedUK shows us that gap is highest at the top of the income distribution , and lowest at the bottom, where the UK living wage - an underplayed success story - has vastly improved the incomes of lower earners.

But a few adjustments are worth making… Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
🧵 Using most conventional measures, the city of Doncaster is no more “full” than the rest of Britain, contrary to the claims of one of its MPs

Yet it raises the interesting Q: why are local perceptions of migration often at odds with the data? @thetimes thetimes.co.uk/article/5944ec…


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Doncaster - like most of Britain - feels stretched. I had a good chat with @NickFletcherMP about some of those pressures. But looking at the data, I struggled to find a measure in which Doncaster was more “full” than the average town Image
Boston became the poster town of Brexit because local wages were undercut by EU migration that completely changed the character of the place

Yet Boston is an exception. Many pro-Brexit areas - like Doncaster - actually had quite low rates of migration
Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 3, 2023
🧵NEW: What’s wrong with young men?

Many under-25s are quick to reject traditional ideas of masculinity.

But new data suggests young men are even more reluctant to show emotions than their parents

My @thetimes analysis, and a short thread…

thetimes.co.uk/article/95af24…
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Back in 2010 @TonyPorterACTM introduced the “man box” as a helpful way of looking at how masculinity restricts male behaviour

In short: don’t cry; don’t express weakness; don’t be a woman

How alive are those stereotypes today?

We polled 4,000 people on how uncomfortable they felt doing certain boundary-testing activities.

On the surface, the 18-24-year olds of today are a different breed. They’re more likely to be comfortable wearing pink or receive flowers than their fathers💐 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 22, 2023
🧵NEW: Who deserves a pay rise the most?

They present a united front – but in reality, unions are competing for spoils, esp in the public sector.

And as the data shows, those with the best case are not always the ones shouting the loudest... @thetimes
thetimes.co.uk/article/voters…
Pay has been stagnant since the financial crisis, with especially poor growth in the public sector

But plot the real-term wage growth of striking workers on a chart, and it's clear teachers and nurses have had a particularly rough ride...
Our low wage growth for teachers and nurses makes us something of an international outlier.

Nurses' pay has grown in nearly every other @OECD country since 2010; not Britain. And as @JackWorthNFER has shown, teachers' salaries have stagnated more than in any other rich nation
Read 7 tweets

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