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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 8

It's interesting that some counties around the country are sharing turnout data throughout the day. Just beware any analysis of this data that doesn't provide historic context. Just like with early vote data, you really need to compare it to the same point in prior years.

For example Virginia Beach is sharing data. If someone wants to input this turnout info along with 2021 turnout and tag them as D vs R precincts, you could see which are turning out at a higher rate. results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/20… vbelections.vbgov.com/ballots

But unless you know if Dem precincts tend to turn out earlier or later than GOP precincts, you're still going to be guessing. I pulled 10 precincts at random, some GOP, some Dem.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 6

In 2020 I talked a lot about the AAPI vote - the historic surge in turnout that delivered key states for Dems, including GA, NV, and AZ. So what are seeing in the early vote this cycle?

At this point, the nationwide early turnout is about 6% ahead of 2018. Yet AAPI turnout has increased by 24%. The only two groups seeing an increased share of the early vote are AAPI and white voters.

Looking at partisanship, turnout among AAPI Dems has increased by 36% over the same point in '18, while AAPI GOP turnout has increased by 14%.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 3

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1588128534979035136

As you'll see in this thread, the early vote looks better than it did at this point in '20. That's a good sign for Dems, especially with polls showing no real defections among early voters (look at NPR/Marist, and recent polls in NV and PA). But...

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1588128534979035136

My biggest concern at this point is youth turnout. The expectation is that they will vote on Eday. Polls suggest that is their plan. And the KS primary gives us some window into that, as turnout basically matched midterm general election turnout...

In KS in the 2020 general, voters under 30 accounted for 11.2% of the EV and 13.5% of the overall vote. In the 2022 primary they were 9.7% of the EV and 14% of the overall turnout. So you can see the bigger skew to Eday (75% voted on Eday).

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 3

I just noticed that, with last night's update, Dems now have a bigger lead in the early/mail voting in NC than they did at this point in 2020. Up to that point it was one of only 5 party reg states underperforming '18 and '20.

PA is just short of 1 million votes cast in our latest update, and the Dem advantage is growing, relative to 2020 at the same point, with a margin that is now 3 pts bigger than two years ago, and a growing gender gap.

NM is also showing a widening Dem gap in the votes cast thus far, now at +19.5D, a half point better than 4 years ago and 3 pts better than 2020.

Read 14 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 3

I've mostly focused on the analytical side of early vote, comparing what we're seeing now to '18 and '20, leaning more on '20 because of how Trump poisoned mail voting for Republicans before '20. But I do think we need to focus on the strategic element.

The fact is that this is the first midterm (where it is harder to motivate your base to come out) where Republicans can no longer rely on their longstanding advantage of pushing their voters out over multiple weeks as they have for many years.

So let's look at Arizona. Turnout there is almost identical to what it was at this point in 2018. Yet look at the partisan differential. What was an 8.4 pt lead for GOPs at this point in '18 is a 2.5 pt lead for Dems right now.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

Nov 1

1 week to go. Where do things stand? Control of Congress is more in question than it has been in any election in recent memory, for two big reasons: the gaps are so narrow in each chamber, and turnout is incredibly uncertain.

Polls affirm the notion of a very closely fought contest for control of congress. Yes, the polls have swung somewhat towards the GOP in the past 2-3 weeks, but there are two important contextual points:

Some of that swing is being driven by a flood of partisan polls with questionable samples. No, the youth vote isn't going to disappear in PA like one poll giving Oz a 3 pt lead showed last week, a poll that wasn't alone in depicting a likely voter electorate that is... unlikely.

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