Nick Fish Profile picture
Nov 9 6 tweets 2 min read
A vote I'm watching in #AR: whether or not voters will amend the state constitution to essentially give people a religious opt out from *any* law. (You read that right.)

With 26% of the vote in, the ballot measure is down about 8.5 pts.
In case you think I'm exaggerating, here's the language. This would apply strict scrutiny to literally every state action in Arkansas, as long as the objection is rooted in religion. This would be a nightmare for enforcement of civil rights protections and... well, every law. Image
You can follow along with the results here. Right now, this ballot measure is running waaaay behind Sarah Huckabee Sanders and John Boozman. Shows just how out of step and extreme it is. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
If Arkansas Issue 3 passes:
1⃣ doctors could refuse to treat patients as long as they do so for religious reasons
2⃣ creationist teachers could refuse to teach evolution
3⃣ business owners who believe women belong in the home could simply refuse to hire women
It's looking like Arkansas won't be legalizing weed tonight. If they pass Issue 3, someone with a religious reason for using it (or any drug) likely couldn't be prosecuted.
One under-appreciated part of these massive religious exemptions is that they make government action and regulation, including compliance for small businesses, far more complicated. Seems like the sort of thing small government people wouldn't want!

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More from @nicholasrfish

Nov 10
UPDATE: Based on statewide turnout and total registered voters in the two counties where we're still waiting for results in Arkansas, I don't see the "Religious Freedom Amendment" having the votes to pass.
From the AR SoS website. AGAINST is currently up 7,664 votes. Turnout ~50%

1) Phillips County has not reported at all. They have 9,771 registered voters. Max 5,000 votes here.
2) Lee County is partially reporting. 4,509 registered voters. ~1,800 outstanding votes.
TOTAL: 6,800
So even if just about every single vote that's left out went FOR the constitutional amendment (which won't happen), it still wouldn't overcome the 7,664 vote lead that AGAINST has built up.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9
Don't want this to get buried, so I'm quote tweeting instead of adding to the thread: AGAINST is now at 52%, FOR is at 48%, with about half the vote it.

Far too close and narrowing.
Now down to a 3 point margin (51.5% to 48.5%) with 55% of votes in.
Down to a 2 point margin (51.0% AGAINST vs. 49.0% FOR) with 64% of votes in.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
From @chrisgeidner: "After spinning a story of the case that he wanted to decide, Gorsuch [...] fundamentally changing our understanding of the religion clauses over the course of a few pages of his opinion by claiming that the court had already done so." chrisgeidner.substack.com/p/religious-su…
"Gorsuch (1) overturned a 51-year-old precedent, (2) announced a new originalist test to replace it, and (3) refused to acknowledge that he and today’s court was taking either of those steps."

I'd add: (4) provided no actionable guidance for schools moving forward.
But again, undermining the ability of public schools to do their job and making working at and attending them as unpleasant as possible is a feature, not a bug, of the majority's long term ambitions. Sowing chaos and creating vague, unworkable standards is just part of the plan.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
I'm much more curious about the underlying question: Why does the United States seem to rely on religious charities, service providers, and disaster relief more than any other developed nations? Why are these core functions not part of our expectations for government action?
The question shouldn't be "Who will run soup kitchens and homeless shelters as religion continues to decline," it's "Why are we okay with people needing to rely on religious charities to meet their basic needs?"
Mutual aid or community support are one thing. Hollowing out entire segments of the social safety net and handing it over to private (often religious) charity strikes me as a recipe for exploitation and misaligned incentives.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 22, 2020
Great report here from @BrookingsGov with some really important recommendations to protect REAL religious freedom and equality in 2021 and beyond. Executive summary and full report here: brookings.edu/research/a-tim…
From the report: "It is important to recognize that intentionally secular groups serve their communities too. As Tom Krattenmaker notes: 'Humanists and adherents
of other secular belief structures deserve to be
treated as worthy Americans, equal to all others...'"
"The United States’ motto E Pluribus Unum—out of many, one—remains a sure guide for a pluralistic nation that respects both particularity and common purpose."
Read 7 tweets
Oct 22, 2020
I am genuinely curious which provisions they want struck down. The individual mandate has been zeroed out. The guaranteed issue provision unquestionably raises prices for everyone in order to ensure narrower age banding and no price discrimination for pre-existing conditions.
They talk about how rates and deductibles are too high. I think most progressives would agree! But the "solution" they offer is to price older people and people with pre-existing conditions out of the market with no alternative for those people.
Rubio railing against reinsurance and risk corridors, for example, as giveaways to insurance companies. It was! Giveaways that reduced overall pricing for consumers! latimes.com/opinion/story/…
Read 4 tweets

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