Thread by @ARCCollective

1. Okay, in the end I couldn't resist.

Some observations.

2. First regarding the midterms in the US, there was no #RedWave and there was no #BlueWave, however as the Democrats look like they will maintain control of the senate, perhaps lose the House, but big up governors, this sort of counts as a Democratic win.

3. Given Biden's numbers there is no way the Democrats should be contending given historical trends. That has to be a bad thing for the Republicans especially if they end up running Trump again who motivates Democratic voters like no other candidate does.

4. And even if the Republicans pick up the House, I suspect that Kevin McCarthy will have a very hard time keeping his caucus in line given there are some like MTG and Boebert who want to MAGA things up even more.

5. That is, assuming Boebert wins. She is currently behind and given where the outstanding votes are in her district if could go either way.

6. In Alberta Danielle Smith won her byelection which wasn't at all a surprise.

However, the numbers should put the fear of God into the UCP.

7. With almost all polls counting Smith won 54.5% to the NDP's 26.7%.

8. However in the 2019 election in which the UCP defeated the then governing NDP, the UCP won 60.7% to the NDP's 17.9%.

That's a significant drop for the UCP and a big jump for the NDP.

9. More worrisome for the UCP, when the NDP won the 2015 provincial election, they won 23.2%. The then two conservative parties that would unite for the 2019 election, the PCs and Wildrose, won a combined 72.1%.

The NDP outperformed their 2015 numbers and UCP underperformed.

10. Now this was a byelection and fewer people voted so that is something to consider.

But Danielle Smith is the UCP leader. One would think that would bump up her numbers.

It did not.

11. So that's my $0.02 for what it is worth.

The vote continues to be counted in the US midterms and I'm sure that will continue to prove interesting.