John Hayward Profile picture
Nov 9 32 tweets 6 min read
It's one of the strangest elections on the books, as witness the shock among so many on the Democrat side that they did so well. They somehow managed to defy political gravity, despite the worst "wrong track" numbers in memory. Probably no single explanation, but a few factors...
To get the most obvious out of the way, a lot of people are yelling "fraud." Some hinky stuff happened, and apparently we'll have to put up with that forever, because the electorate does not insist on clean, efficient elections even after states like Florida prove it's possible.
Fraud doesn't explain nationwide results, though. Better to consider that Dems took advantage of the pandemic to loosen voter rules to an absolutely insane degree, and they are absolute masters at harvesting what we might politely refer to as the "indifferent" voter.
What's the point of talking about "momentum," late-breaking events, or even how candidates perform at debates when a huge chunk of the vote is banked by mail before the debates even happen? Robotic party-line voters and harvesting matter more than campaign skill.
Second, candidate quality matters - and it matters a LOT more for the party that doesn't have a massive ballot-harvesting machine humming away to scoop up indifferent voters early. This was painfully illustrated in Pennsylvania, the true bellwether race of this election.
Many GOP candidates did well in tough areas, but they just couldn't close the deal. That has a lot to do with candidate quality - think of the old maxim that you only get one chance to make a first impression. That's even more important in an era of absurdly loose early voting.
If scads of mail-in votes are harvested before there are even debates, then the "campaign" doesn't matter as much. You can run a tight campaign, make all the right moves while your opponent implodes, and still come up short because you got off on the wrong foot.
That's an environment that obviously favors incumbents, who already got elected and have huge bankrolls of money and power, over challengers who have to introduce themselves - and it really cuts against "outsider" challengers without political resumes or establishment support.
The only real red tsunami of the midterm election, in Florida, featured incumbent Republicans with very solid resumes and excellent political machines. DeSantis shook the pillars of heaven in a state he originally won by a squeaker against a drug-addled train wreck Dem.
Third, and related: money matters, a lot. You didn't hear any media bellyaching about money in politics this time around because Democrats had oceans of it. We laugh at proven-loser Dems like Abrams and Beto who wasted millions, but believe me, Dems had plenty to waste.
Money always matters in politics - it might not overwhelm everything else, we love stories of the underfunded David taking out establishment Goliath, but it's a huge factor. It lets you blast your message to voters - and Dems get BILLIONS of in-kind donations from their media.
Dems also have VERY powerful political machines in the cities they control, which churn out votes like a factory punching out widgets. Some of those machines are a century old and more. It takes money, time, and skill to build operations that can fight back.
Fourth, movement and polarization are a real factor - an opportunity in some ways for the GOP, a problem in others. It's striking how closely Zeldin's heartbreaking loss in NY tracks with the number of people who fled the Dem train wreck in NY. Votes have been cast with feet.
People are moving around, between states and to the suburbs. It's not really a new phenomenon - think back to the "white flight" debate of decades past. Badly governed jurisdictions tend to get worse as reasonable people flee. Failure doubles down, again and again.
The GOP's best bet is to reach people in death-spiral blue areas with the message that they CAN do better, things CAN change, but it's not easy. It's only possible if you're running candidates who convince those voters they can govern well, with a nationwide election narrative.
Didn't really see much of a national election narrative from the GOP this time around. The Dems definitely had one, with abortion panic and Biden's Mussolini speeches. They made a desperately play to shore up their base, and it worked extremely well.
Now for a couple of things that may not be easy to hear. One: the pandemic changed this country for the long term, and not at all in a good way. A certain despair has settled in, a sense that things can't be any better, and we really don't DESERVE better. It's sunk in deep.
That's one reason Dems defied those wrong-track, mad-as-hell numbers that had so many Dem analysts nervous yesterday morning. Sure, 70% or 85% or whatever say wrong track - but what does that mean, if so many buy lefty spin that it can't get better, that we DESERVE decline?
The pandemic brought a deep and enduring shift toward the desire for government-provided "security" at all costs, in numerous issues. It dovetails with mail-in voting, which is perfect for reaching the "laptop class" that arose during lockdowns, valuing handouts over opportunity.
This happened at a time when the Left's control of institutional power became near-absolute. With the capture of large corporations, they gained control of every large institution that influences the attitudes of young and suburban voters. The pandemic magnified that influence.
Look at how successful the Dems' despicable strategy of boosting the very GOP candidates they screamed were a threat to Democracy Itself was. They won every single race they used that tactic in, didn't they? That stuff only works if you have overwhelming institutional control.
Likewise with abortion, which was fascinatingly under-polled going into the election. Poll after poll said voters were far more concerned about inflation, crime, etc. And yet on election night, we got all these exit polls saying it effectively erased the economy as an issue.
That's raw institutional power at work, wielded over the course of generations. Mail-in ballots cast at the height of post-Dodd pushback were a big reason polls from the fall that showed abortion receding as an issue were wrong. The pro-abortion reflex ran deep in some quarters.
It's true that the electorate writ large doesn't like either extreme on abortion, but eliminating abortion was more clearly on the ballot this time around, so the vote against it mobilized. I said at the time pro-lifers should give voters more time to adjust to the new reality.
Vast fortresses of institutional power are defeated with patient strategy and persistence - siege warfare, not all-or-nothing cavalry charges. GOP needs to get better at changing the electorate - yes, social engineering! Dems do it all day, every day, without mercy or hesitation.
Last bit: look, I know saying a word about Trump or Trump vs. DeSantis is going to unleash a flood of strong responses. Nobody's position on that hot-button issue will change because of a Tweet. I thought last night's results wrote a message in the sky with letters of fire. YMMV.
The sum of everything we saw last night argues for smart strategy, a proven record of accomplishments, wisely choosing battles that matter and making careful investments of political capital. Wavering voters and nervous folks like visionaries who also demonstrate competence.
You just can't get around the fact that Dems put Trump on the ballot with all their caterwauling about Jan 6 and DEMOCRACY IN PERIL, and ran very well against him. He's got major negatives that aren't going away. You may think that's unfair, but it's true.
Trump has baggage from the pandemic that turns off people who might otherwise vote red. He sat on a pile of money that could have helped in the midterms. He splits up the GOP while Dems grow ever more horrifyingly united under totalitarian ideology.
Trump certainly does have strengths, which his ardent detractors underestimate, and his admin did better on many key issues pre-pandemic than even he can articulate. But the pandemic DID happen. 2020 happened. Last night showed Dems will win if we never leave 2020 behind.
Want to know how Dems won PA with a guy who has serious brain damage? Same way they put a senile disaster in the White House and then weathered the midterms. Party power, institutional control, ideological unity, a machine that spits out votes even if the candidate is a turnip.
You can't beat that without a strong and unified opposition party. You don't want to get that unity the way Dems do it, of course, but you need a team that can play all the way into overtime. Pick fights that matter and send in players who can win, led by a good coach. /end

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More from @Doc_0

Nov 10
The worst thing about totalitarianism is that it's very effective. Politicizing everything, blasting ideological messages 24/7/365, teaching people to see their every action as a statement (and subject to political judgement) - it WORKS, especially with the young and disaffected.
Totalitarianism preys on the natural hunger of young people for leadership and direction - they desperately want those things even as they sarcastically denounce them - and on the desire of the disaffected to feel meaningful and empowered.
Internet pioneers thought it would be an ultimate weapon against totalitarianism, because ideas would become impossible to suppress - but social media magnified the appeal of totalitarian ideology, making it easier to politicize everything and manufacture "consensus."
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Nov 4
Obama's Pen & Phone authoritarian rule by illegal executive orders - remember how often he lost in court? - was premised on the idea that the opposition was illegitimate, so their congressional seats shouldn't count. Want to talk about assaults on democracy? Let's start there.
Obama was known for violent rhetoric - get in their faces, punch back twice as hard - but more importantly, he came into office loudly asserting that his political opponents had no legitimate role in government. He said they shouldn't even be allowed to SPEAK. Remember?
This was a constant theme during Obama's push for authoritarian power. Time and again, he went back to the argument that his opponents held their seats illegitimately, even after winning huge majorities at the ballot box. This had a corrosive effect on the minds of his followers.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 3
On top of all the other reasons Biden posturing as the Soul of Democracy is ridiculous, he and Obama were the most anti-democratic presidents of the modern era. They rule by executive order, frequently issuing orders they KNOW are illegal, and boast about bypassing Congress.
Biden, Obama, and the rest of the Democrat Party are utterly devoted to the unelected bureaucratic managerial state, the antithesis of democracy and representative government. They squirrel away as much power and money as possible with agencies nobody ever gets to vote against.
Democrats are devoted to the Great Reset ideal of hollow "democracy" with a hard authoritarian core, built around a growing list of issues that are supposedly settled forever by "expert consensus," so those issues should never appear on a ballot again.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 1
Racialist policies like "affirmative action" are a profoundly damaging betrayal of the noble principle of equality. People respond to the bitter hypocrisy of "racism is wrong, but also you must obey these racist policies without question in the name of social justice."
It's cognitive dissonance on a massive scale, grinding away at our social fabric and national spirit generation after generation, much like the contradiction of claiming to value "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" but pushing abortion to the point of infanticide.
Of COURSE it's caused enormous strife, bitterness, chaos, and resentment to celebrate the dream of children growing up in a land where they are judged by the content of their character and not the color of their skin... but then judge them by the color of their skin, forever.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 31
Before you vote for socialists, remember you will never be given another chance to vote AGAINST whatever they do with power. No refunds, no takebacks, no admissions of error, no escape. It doesn't matter how badly they fail. There is no "undo" button on their programs.
The ability to say "no," the right to refuse, is the defining attribute of meaningful freedom. You can measure your freedom by the value of what you are allowed to say "no" to, the frequency with which your consent is required, and the ease with which you can refuse to grant it.
Let us therefore pay our respects to the equally important ability to say "no more" - to exit from an arrangement that you find unsatisfactory or disastrous. You have NO such ability under a socialist regime. They will never return the freedom and money they take from you.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 27
Hard to imagine anything more nakedly totalitarian than comparing Biden's student loan heist - a naked vote-buying scheme from a desperate politician - to government compensation paid for businesses forcibly shut down by the government. Also hard to imagine anything dumber.
"Oh, you once accepted compensation from a mandatory program after the State took your property by forcing your business to shut down? Well, then you have no right to complain when a desperate political hack picks your pocket to finance one of his pet schemes!"
Biden's "point" is characteristically stupid, but also a danger that shouldn't be ignored. The people who write his Tweets are laying out a case for absolute totalitarian power: since everyone gets some kind of "benefit" from the mega-State, no one can object to anything it does.
Read 5 tweets

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