Per @Taniel's spreadsheet, Republicans have either won or are leading in 220 House districts, with Democrats winning or leading in 215 districts.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
You may recall that in 2018, Democrats gained considerably in competitive House districts once late mail ballots were counted.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
One clue that this California "blue shift" could happen is that Democrats are currently underperforming polls in the Governor/Senate margins statewide.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
It looks like the Democrat is currently leading in #CA41 by 12 points (~27% reporting), but perhaps this is a one that could flip back into the GOP column with a redshift. It's a Trump +1 district that the forecasts/models expected to be Republican.
https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1590447036218105856?s=20&t=OBy7ZkX9nnVqcdORycdGPg
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