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Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
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Nov 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of ballots left to count in Arizona (beyond this list there's also ~180k from Pima County, plus other counties with unconfirmed totals).

If you recall from 2020, the "late early vote" favored Republicans.

Masters is still in the game.

#AZSEN

With the above confirmed county vote totals (645505) and his deficit statewide (83,262), Masters would need to carry remaining ballots by 12.9% to take the lead. It's certainly possible.

Agreed. The Maricopa County drop tonight (should be coming at 6pm Pacific Time) will be helpful.

Sorry about that - the Maricopa drop will be at 6pm Mountain Time.

I got Arizona mixed up with Nevada.

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More from @ryanmatsumoto1

Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
Nov 10
NEVADA SENATE Update:

Laxalt leads by 22,595 votes statewide
~145,000 mail ballots left to count (Clark + Washoe)

Cortez Masto needs to win these mail ballots by ~15.6% to pull ahead.

(This doesn't include mail ballots arriving through Saturday).

Positive signs for Cortez Masto:
- Apparently other mail ballot batches in Clark had been going 2-1 Democratic.
- The Culinary Union was encouraging its members to drop off mail ballots at drop boxes, so the margin with these drop box ballots may be especially Democratic.
Positive signs for Laxalt:
- Washoe mail ballots less Democratic than Clark mail ballots.
- Washoe mail ballots received on Election Day were actually slightly more Republican by party registration.
- Possible that late mail ballots could be less Democratic than earlier ones.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
Nov 9
Per @Taniel's spreadsheet, Republicans have either won or are leading in 220 House districts, with Democrats winning or leading in 215 districts.

The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
You may recall that in 2018, Democrats gained considerably in competitive House districts once late mail ballots were counted.

If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
One clue that this California "blue shift" could happen is that Democrats are currently underperforming polls in the Governor/Senate margins statewide.

Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.

But these shifts can be unpredictable.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
Nov 7
My final 2022 Senate prediction: Republicans win the majority 51-49.

Republicans win PA and NV
Democrats win NH, AZ, and GA

Just my own personal guess - obviously many of these races could go either way!
Pennsylvania: Tilt R

PA was 3 points more Republican than the nation in 2020 and this is an open seat. If the national environment is several points GOP-leaning, the fundamentals point to a GOP win. The candidate quality gap doesn't seem large enough to me to overcome that.
Nevada: Tilt R

Polls seem to point to a slim Laxalt advantage here. Ralston's early vote analysis suggests that neither side will have a definitive turnout advantage. However, based on what I've seen from polls, I think the Republican carries Independents by enough to win.
Read 9 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
May 17
Final RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania GOP Senate Primary polling average:

Oz 26.8%
Barnette 24.2%
McCormick 19.6%

Oz is the slight favorite, though Barnette has a decent chance and McCormick has a small chance. Image
The case for Oz: he's led in all 9 of the latest non-internal polls. While his favorability ratings are mediocre, that hasn't stopped him from increasing support in the last week from the low-20s to high-20s/low-30s. And the Trump endorsement could help with late-deciders.
Although Oz's favorability numbers are poor, the Emerson poll crosstabs had him at 46% favorable 31% unfavorable among undecided voters. Not amazing, but could be enough in combination with the Trump endorsement to hold off Barnette.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
Nov 3, 2021
NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR UPDATE (per @CNN results):

Phil Murphy (D) - 49.64%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) - 49.57%

1667 vote lead.

Despite the narrow lead, Democrats should be considered the heavy favorites here.

THREAD 🧵(1/6):
First, the most obvious place where Murphy will pick up votes is Mercer County. It's currently at ~74% of its 2017 total votes, a clear outlier from every other county that's at 100%-135%.

This is a Biden +40 county and its remaining votes are probably absentees.

(2/6)
Second, per this @wildstein column, it seems like there may be additional precincts left to be counted in heavily Democratic Essex County (Biden +55).

This would make sense since the county is at ~101% of 2017 total votes, which is on the low end.

(3/6)

newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/gove…
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
By all accounts, it seems like turnout is pretty strong in the heavily Democratic northern Virginia suburbs.

A good sign for Democrats when ~30% of total votes typically come from Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, Arlington, Alexandria, Manassas, Manassas Park, and Fairfax City.
The bigger question mark is probably relative turnout in counties with high shares of Black voters.

This report out of Newport News is certainly not as strong as NoVa, but may be alright for Democrats - depends on how the next few hours go.

A positive development for Republicans - high turnout in heavily Republican Poquoson (Trump 71% Biden 26%), which seems to have already passed their total number of votes in 2017 with 4.5 hours to go. This is an affluent, very white area in Hampton Roads.

Read 4 tweets

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