Tony Ingesson Profile picture
Nov 11 13 tweets 2 min read
For my English-speaking intel/security people, here's a summary thread re. the GRU espionage case in Sweden that is getting significant media coverage here today:
Two brothers, Peyman Kia and Payam Kia, have today been charged with espionage on behalf of a foreign power. The exact charge is "grovt spioneri", meaning that it is a particularly serious form of espionage (in the sense that it can be assumed to have inflicted serious damage).
The older brother, Peyman, has been employed by both the Swedish Security Service (the agency responsible for counterintelligence) as well as military intelligence. According to media sources, Peyman has served in the most sensitive department in military intelligence, KSI.
The younger brother, Payam, is charged with having assisted his older sibling by handling the connections with the GRU as well as having received money and gold in payment.
As is often the case with counterintelligence investigations, this one has been years in the making. The investigation was initiated in 2017, and the brothers were arrested in September 2021. They have been detained ever since, awaiting trial.
The fact that Peyman had left the Security Service for a less sensitive position at the Swedish Food Agency probably meant that there was less time pressure to make the arrests. The head of the Swedish Food Agency was contacted in 2018 and was aware of the investigation.
I haven't read all the documentation released today yet, but it looks like a pretty solid case. Multiple computers, encryption software, USB sticks and phones have been secured, as well as evidence of transactions involving money.
There's also evidence suggesting that the brothers had made plans regarding significant monetary transactions involving cash and gold, methods for clandestinely receiving compensation, back-up plans, escape plans, etc.
Forensic analysis of a computer also shows that Peyman has photographed or duplicated classified documents in a conspiratorial manner. These documents have also been traced to printouts made by Peyman himself from the Security Service computer system.
The younger brother tried to destroy evidence by breaking apart a hard drive and throwing it away in a trash bin, but surveillance immediately detected this and the hard drive was secured.
I'm going to continue to look into this case, but from the looks of it, this could be one of the worst espionage cases in Swedish contemporary history, up there with Stig Bergling and Stig Wennerström.
On a side note, I've started reading the transcriptions of the interrogations of Peyman. It's quite chilling how he at first refuses to say anything at all, then a few days later is all charm and honestly quite persuasive in his explanations.
An interesting detail I noticed in the interrogation transcriptions: Peyman claims he had many different managers at the security service. This is a classic security problem, it's much easier to conceal suspicious activity when the manager isn't all that familiar with the staff.

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More from @tonyingesson

Nov 11
Intressanta saker på gång idag i underrättelse-/säkerhetssfären här i Sverige. Jag lägger upp fler uppdateringar efterhand under dagen.
Ursäkta tystnaden, det har varit lite svårt att lägga upp uppdateringar p.g.a. ganska mycket frågor o dyl. från media. Jag kommer att dyka upp i TV4, SR Gräns, SvD och DN under dagen/kvällen.
En av de saker jag tar upp i intervjuerna är att det här inte är första gången en spion rekryterar ett syskon för att hjälpa till, se t.ex. den ökände John Walker: news.usni.org/2014/09/02/joh…
Read 8 tweets
Aug 31
I was asked to write a thread about the aborted attempt to make an interceptor version of the Tu-4 (i.e. the Soviet copy of the B-29), since I didn't have the space to cover it in my article. So, here goes!
First of all, the Tu-4 was built to operate as a strategic bomber, like the B-29 it was copied from. But, the creative Soviets didn't stop there, they experimented with all sorts of derivative versions (including transports, aerial refueling planes, drone carriers, etc.).
Perhaps the most bizarre of these was the G-310 long-range interceptor version. The only reason the Tu-4 was chosen for this was that no other aircraft was powerful enough to carry the air-to-air missiles developed for this project, designated G-300.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 31
My article on Soviet industrial espionage in the military aerospace sector during the Cold War is now published! It's open access, so anyone can read it (incl. in PDF format).

Feat. six case studies (Tu-4, Su-9, Su-24, Ka-25, Tu-160, MiG-31)

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
In the article, I investigate what Soviet industrial espionage in the military aerospace sector was actually used for. I employ three ideal types (Innovator, Copycat, Pragmatist) to see which of these provides the best fit for each of the six case studies.
The case studies were selected to provide a wide span across time (covering 1946-1990) and different types of platforms/designs/roles.

I divided the Cold War into three time periods, w. two cases per period: 1946-1960, 1961-1975, 1976-1990.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
I'm sorry, but every time I hear the phrase "the rapid pace of change today" or something like it, I can't help but think that the pace of change today is in fact much slower than it was during most of the previous century.

Think of 1910-1930 or 1935-1955 compared to 2002-2022.
1910-1930:

- the spread of electricity in homes
- radio & mass media becomes a thing
- Russian Empire replaced by Soviet Union
- World War I
- end of Ottoman Empire & German Empire
- huge advances in aviation
- stock market crash 1929
- Spanish Flu pandemic
- etc.
1935-1955:

- Nuclear weapons & nuclear power
- World War II
- Germany divided and occupied
- Japan occupied
- West & East German republics created
- French defeat in Indochina War
- Korean War
- digital computers invented, enter mass production
- TVs become common
- etc.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
I note that the classic old trick of concealing an accent by creating a legend that explains minor oddities in pronunciation (but which points in a completely different direction) is still going strong.
This is quite clever, IMO. Perfecting an accent is extremely difficult, which for example the OSS and SOE struggled with during infiltrations of France during WWII. The solution is thus to deliberately adopt an accent, but an artificial one.
Of particular importance is that the accent points in a different direction than the real accent of the illegal. One trick I remember seeing is for planned Swedish illegals to fake a Norwegian accent, and vice versa.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 15
Jag tycker att diskussionen om svensk underrättelsetjänst och invasionen av Ukraina kan gynnas av att nyanseras en del, så här kommer mitt perspektiv på det hela.

1. Man landa i fel slutsats även med "rätt" process. Underrättelseanalys är inte en exakt vetenskap.
Hade Must rätt process? Inte vet jag, men det går heller inte att säga utifrån öppet material. Det kommer förmodligen att dröja decennier innan någon kan analysera det forskningsmässigt och publicera öppet om det.
Man kan även landa i "rätt" slutsats utifrån en felaktig process. Det skulle jag säga har potential att vara minst lika illa som ett misslyckande, eftersom det kan skapa en överskattning av den egna analysförmågan.
Read 18 tweets

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