Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Yevgeny Nuzhin was a Russian prison inmate who enlisted into the Wagner mercenary group to fight in Ukraine. After being captured by Ukrainians he expressed his desire to fight against Putin. He was exchanged and then executed with sledgehammer according to Wagner traditions. Image
Wagner is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin who himself had spent 10 years in prison for violent crimes. Upon release he launched a catering business and eventually became known as "Putin's cook". In this capacity he established a Wagner mercenary group fighting colonial wars for Russia ImageImage
Wagner mercenaries ironically style themselves as "ихтамнеты" ("they are not there"). It means that they are fighting in many countries where Russia has no official presence. If questioned, Russia will deny Wagners being there/connection of Wagner to Kremlin. Hence the nickname Image
Wagner's mythology and iconography is based on glorification of ultraviolence. Consider this Wagner merch. Execution with sledgehammer is the most recognisable symbol of the Wagner group.

We see guys beating someone with sledgehammer -> We think of Wagner ImageImage
"Sledgehammer" symbol refers to this case. In Syria one of Assad's Syrian soldiers tried to desert. Wagner mercenaries captured him. They beat him with sledgehammer, cut off his hands and head with a saw and burnt the rest. This execution became the proudest symbol of Wagner Image
See video of Wagner mercenaries executing a Syrian here. Much of it is blurred, but it is still pretty graphic

What is interesting about this execution is that it wasn't prosecuted or even condemned. Instead it was endorsed and became the proud symbol and the trademark of the Wagner group. Modern Russia tends to endorse ultra violence rather than to condemn it Image
Initially they executed a Syrian deserter this way. Now they did it with one of their own. You can see a video here on their Telegram channel. Warning, it's graphic t.me/grey_zone/15767

Prigozhin and the Wagner social media accounts endorsed this new execution of course
Ultraviolet execution of a deserter is perfectly rational. Many prison recruits etc have low morals. With this execution Wagner tells:

1. You can't escape from us
2. After we get you back, you'll die in a terrible way

Ultraviolence is necessary to keep the unmotivated in line
At this point Wagner grew into a massive fighting force. They have infantry, artillery, tanks, air defence, even fighter jets. So pretty much everything that the regular army has except for navy, ballistic missiles, etc. The Wagner became an army in their own right
While being largely independent from the regular army, Wagner uses the same infrastructure. Most importantly, they train their recruits on the same training ground - @RheinmetallAG built Mulino. The only modern training center that Russia has

While the @RheinmetallAG officially "left" the project after Crimea, that is a verifiable lie. Customs declaration show them supplying the "Garnison" company that was building Mulino with components for assembling the simulation equipment even in 2019

In other words, @RheinmetallAG declaration in August 2022 is a verifiable lie. Russian customs declarations (see details in a thread quoted in a previous tweet) show that Rheinmetall was supplying Garnison with components for assembling simulation equipment even in 2019 Image
TL;DR Russian ultraviolet mercenary Wagner group is being trained on @RheinmetallAG built training ground. It is the only training center in Russia that has modern simulation equipment. Rheimetall was shipping them components as late as in 2019

Thank you, Rheinmetall!

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets

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