Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Yevgeny Nuzhin was a Russian prison inmate who enlisted into the Wagner mercenary group to fight in Ukraine. After being captured by Ukrainians he expressed his desire to fight against Putin. He was exchanged and then executed with sledgehammer according to Wagner traditions. Image
Wagner is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin who himself had spent 10 years in prison for violent crimes. Upon release he launched a catering business and eventually became known as "Putin's cook". In this capacity he established a Wagner mercenary group fighting colonial wars for Russia ImageImage
Wagner mercenaries ironically style themselves as "ихтамнеты" ("they are not there"). It means that they are fighting in many countries where Russia has no official presence. If questioned, Russia will deny Wagners being there/connection of Wagner to Kremlin. Hence the nickname Image
Wagner's mythology and iconography is based on glorification of ultraviolence. Consider this Wagner merch. Execution with sledgehammer is the most recognisable symbol of the Wagner group.

We see guys beating someone with sledgehammer -> We think of Wagner ImageImage
"Sledgehammer" symbol refers to this case. In Syria one of Assad's Syrian soldiers tried to desert. Wagner mercenaries captured him. They beat him with sledgehammer, cut off his hands and head with a saw and burnt the rest. This execution became the proudest symbol of Wagner Image
See video of Wagner mercenaries executing a Syrian here. Much of it is blurred, but it is still pretty graphic

What is interesting about this execution is that it wasn't prosecuted or even condemned. Instead it was endorsed and became the proud symbol and the trademark of the Wagner group. Modern Russia tends to endorse ultra violence rather than to condemn it Image
Initially they executed a Syrian deserter this way. Now they did it with one of their own. You can see a video here on their Telegram channel. Warning, it's graphic t.me/grey_zone/15767

Prigozhin and the Wagner social media accounts endorsed this new execution of course
Ultraviolet execution of a deserter is perfectly rational. Many prison recruits etc have low morals. With this execution Wagner tells:

1. You can't escape from us
2. After we get you back, you'll die in a terrible way

Ultraviolence is necessary to keep the unmotivated in line
At this point Wagner grew into a massive fighting force. They have infantry, artillery, tanks, air defence, even fighter jets. So pretty much everything that the regular army has except for navy, ballistic missiles, etc. The Wagner became an army in their own right
While being largely independent from the regular army, Wagner uses the same infrastructure. Most importantly, they train their recruits on the same training ground - @RheinmetallAG built Mulino. The only modern training center that Russia has

While the @RheinmetallAG officially "left" the project after Crimea, that is a verifiable lie. Customs declaration show them supplying the "Garnison" company that was building Mulino with components for assembling the simulation equipment even in 2019

In other words, @RheinmetallAG declaration in August 2022 is a verifiable lie. Russian customs declarations (see details in a thread quoted in a previous tweet) show that Rheinmetall was supplying Garnison with components for assembling simulation equipment even in 2019 Image
TL;DR Russian ultraviolet mercenary Wagner group is being trained on @RheinmetallAG built training ground. It is the only training center in Russia that has modern simulation equipment. Rheimetall was shipping them components as late as in 2019

Thank you, Rheinmetall!

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More from @kamilkazani

May 17
No offence, but this is a completely imbecile, ignorant, ridiculous framing. I have no explanation for all this debate except for a complete & determined ignorance of the foreign policy making class, and their refusal to learn literally anything about the material world.
"Components" framing makes sense when we are discussing drones. Why? Because drones are literally made from the imported components. You buy like 90% of them in China, and may be you make like 10% domestically. For the most part, you just assemble what you bought in China.
Not the case with missiles. Most of what the missile consists of, including its most critical, hard to make parts is produced domestically. Why? Because you cannot buy it abroad. More often than not, you cannot buy it in China. You can only make it yourself, domestically.
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.

This is unique, ultra rare.Image
Belousov's career track:

1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
Read 8 tweets
May 7
If you want to imagine Russia, imagine a depressive, depopulating town. Now on the outskirts of a town, there is an outrageously over-equipped, overfunded strategic enterprise that has literally everything money can buy in the world. It feels like a spaceship from another planet
Strategic industry is extremely generously equipped. Western companies look scoundrels in comparison. That’s why I am so sceptical about the whole “corruption” narrative. Not that it’s wrong. It’s just that it is the perspective of a little, envious bitch.
What needs to be funded, will be funded. It will actually be overfunded and most literally drowned in money. Obviously, overfunding the strategic sector comes at the cost of underfunding almost everything else (like urban infrastructure). That’s why the town looks so grim.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?


Image
The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)

assets-global.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…
Image
Step 1. State Propaganda.

Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets

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