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Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 12

The Fox Butterfield Fallacy is back!

In the tough-on-crime 1990s, NYT reporter Fox Butterfield would wonder why the number of inmates was going up while murders were falling. We don't have that problem anymore, but Tory-ruled UK does, so the NYT is mad that UK crime isn't rising

The British Tory government, for all its faults, has been tough on crime during its 12 years of rule, unlike the US Establishment. The NYT is aghast that it remains hard on gang murders, despite UK murders not going up during the pandemic.

unz.com/isteve/fox-but…

The NYT always blames the big murder rise 2020 USA on the pandemic rather than on (cough, mumble, look down) the George Floyd racial reckoning.

But in the UK, like most countries, murders haven't gone up during the pandemic, so the NYT is mad the UK is still tough on crime.

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Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 10

Here's an improved version of my scatterplot showing an r=0.82 correlation coefficient of states' share of the population that is black and per capita homicide victimizations of residents from the CDC WONDER cause-of-death database.

unz.com/isteve/does-gu…

I flipped the axes around so now being above the trend line, like New Mexico, Missouri, and DC, suggests a worse total homicide rate than racial demographics alone would suggest, while GA, MD, VA, NY, & MA are better. Also, states with notable American Indian shares are in red.

Here's a scatterplot of Biden's share of the vote in 2020 vs. white homicide victimizations rates: a moderate negative correlation.

Read 4 tweets

Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 10

With the Kremlin announcing its forces are abandoning Kherson, Russia's only foothold on the west bank of the Dnieper River, it's important to talk about what future Ukrainian war aims the U.S. would subsidize at what cost and what it wouldn't.

unz.com/isteve/kremlin…

The Ukrainians are publicly committed to restoring not just their pre-2022 borders but also their pre-2014 borders including Crimea.

On the one hand, achieving those aims could serve as strong object lessons against starting wars of annexation.

On the other, achieving either aim fully could be highly expensive.

Read 5 tweets

Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 9

Where are the white women at?

Here are selected counties with a surplus of non-Hispanic white women over white men in the age 15-39 range.

Can you figure out why there tend to be more young white women than white men near obscure hill country colleges?

unz.com/isteve/where-a…

And here are some counties with far more white men than white women.

unz.com/isteve/where-a…

Here's my best guess for why there tend to be a surplus of young white women to young white men living in Scots-Irish counties:

Read 6 tweets

Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 9

The GOP suffers from being traditionally the party of the executive class but also increasingly lately the party of the working class. I’m not sure if the inevitable economic conflicts between management and labor within the modern GOP can ever be squared.
takimag.com/article/the-gr…

One fundamental problem is that most of the expertise at complex tasks like changing the tax code is of course found at the higher economic level.

Working-class Republicans lack large institutions thinking about how to make subtle tweaks to benefit them, the way that 60 years ago the AFL-CIO hired lawyers and economists to dream up reforms to benefit working-class Democrats at the expense of executive-class Republicans.

Read 4 tweets

Steve Sailer

@Steve_Sailer

Nov 5

@Blair_A_Nathan

@Blair_A_Nathan Ethiopia is fascinating, but I noticed "Black Panther" director Ryan Coogler visited Lesotho a number of years ago, which is unusual for an American.

@Blair_A_Nathan

@Blair_A_Nathan I suspect, with no evidence, that "Black Panther" director Ryan Coogler has a "Cold Winter" concept in which Africans in his Alternate Timeline got far enough south and high enough (e.g., Lesotho) that they evolved Northern cultural/genetic traits under the stress of winter.

@Blair_A_Nathan

@Blair_A_Nathan I have no evidence for my theory, other than all the snow in "Black Panther" and Coogler's visit to Lesotho (which has a ski hill), but it's interesting to speculate about what if the Bantu Expansion had reached the mountains of South Africa well before the Dutch got to Cape Town

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