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Nov 15 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: How the GOP almost blew the House

Everybody was shocked by the results on Tuesday *but* the GOP’s internal modeling actually showed them back in September that they could lose the House

politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
More nuggets:

Abortion was likely a deciding factor. But NRCC had decided at a polling summit over the summer that they wouldn't respond at all. The group of top strategists ultimately decided to stay focused on the economy.
Highlight of the GOP's night was ousting DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney

And he was *pissed*. One day after conceding, DCCC Chair Maloney defiantly told his staff: “Those motherfuckers wasted a lot of money on me.”

Republicans - mostly CLF - spent roughly $10M to defeat him.
Maloney's cash problems were so acute that DCCC's own *executive director* was making calls to Dem groups in final weeks to ask them to give money to Maloney's race at home.

Dems in blue-tinted districts across the map were panicking over cash. But SPM needed backup the most.
Dems lost a seat that might seal their majority - #AZ06 - by very small margin last night.

Ruben Gallego had been telling DCCC from the start to give $ to Dem Kristen Engel.

Gallego: "The DCCC didn’t want to invest it there.. I was very clear that this was a winnable race.”
One of GOP's biggest problems was candidate quality.

But McCarthy had been quietly working to keep Trump from meddling against their best ones

He convinced Trump not to weigh in against Jen Kiggans (who beat Luria)
as well as Juan Ciscomani (who flipped Kirkpatrick seat)
ALL THIS and more with the very great (and very tired) @allymutnick @ec_schneider

politico.com/news/2022/11/1…

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More from @sarahnferris

Sarah Ferris Profile picture
Nov 14
NEW: Allies of Kevin McCarthy have attempted to sway at least one moderate Democrat to the GOP side of the aisle -- Rep. Henry Cuellar

w/ @Olivia_Beavers
@Olivia_Beavers Cuellar received calls from a member and former member in recent days, per person familiar

Unsurprisingly, it was a big NO from Cuellar to join the GOP.

Story TK
credit to WSJ for beating us to the tweet
Read 4 tweets
Sarah Ferris Profile picture
May 11
NEW: After Rep. Katie Porter gave emotional speech to fellow Dems about skyrocketing grocery bills, she said it felt like the first time it sank in with some colleagues

One told her it's not coming up in polls. Her response: “You don’t know what to ask”

politico.com/news/2022/05/1…
Porter says the episode revealed the communication gap between elected Dems and "regular Americans"

Even as Dems push new policy ideas, members worry they fall short in showing voters that they understand their pain

Porter warns that voters are quick to sense "hollow rhetoric"
As one Dem aide put it: “If you’re explaining, you are losing.”

But there's one area Dems think they can successfully use personal stories to connect with the public: Abortion.

Dems like Barbara Lee have come forward for the first time to talk about their experiences
Read 4 tweets
Sarah Ferris Profile picture
Jan 31
NEW: When the House comes back tomorrow night, they'll be voting on what many frontliners have been begging for months to tackle.

Supply chains. Chip shortages. Inflation.

Dems make the hard pivot to the economy as pocketbook issues flare up at home.

politico.com/news/2022/01/3…
A version of the bill - meant to bolster U.S. manufacturing, compete against China, etc. - has already passed the Senate.

The House's version, though, has a lot more language/$ to tackle supply chain issues directly - which are much bigger issues since Senate passed last June.
Some Dems worry it took too long to bring bills like this to the floor, saying people have been worried since before Christmas.

“The pinch we are all feeling on inflation is significant,” Rep. Abigail Spanberger told constituents at a virtual town hall
Read 4 tweets
Sarah Ferris Profile picture
Sep 29, 2021
NEWS: Dem leaders have reached an agreement with mods to vote on debt limit. The group will no longer block it on the floor.
Dem leaders have agreed to call up a bill from Rep. Kathleen Rice called the "Fiscal State of the Nation Resolution" -- requiring a high-profile fiscal presentation to House and Senate budget committees

govtrack.us/congress/bills…
Mods say Dem leaders needed to recognize that this was a huge issue for them politically, and to force a discussion.
Read 5 tweets
Sarah Ferris Profile picture
Mar 17, 2021
New tonight: Post-Covid reopening is the latest divide on the Hill

House Republicans are meeting in person, fundraising in person, and yes, flying their conference to Florida.

Democrats are doing, well, none of that.

w / @MZanona
politico.com/news/2021/03/1…
Capitol building is a microcosm of national reopening debate -- except members/essential workers were offered a shot as early as December, meaning much of campus population is already fully vaccinated. (Not all, more staffer shots just arrived.)
Dems say it's too early to roll back health mandates, even as Rs are choosing to go maskless/hold meetings on their own.

BUT both parties can agree on one thing -- cutting back the time it takes to vote in groups on the floor. At least 45 min but usually more, per vote.
Read 4 tweets
Sarah Ferris Profile picture
Feb 23, 2021
SO the House is about to take a rare roll call vote on the renaming of a post office.

Why? The member on the bill is Rep. Trent Kelly, House GOPer who's been accused of aiding the insurrectionists on 1/6.

And a furious Rep. Sean Casten is actually forcing the full vote
Casten objected to the bill being considered under suspension -- which some see as a privilege that shouldn't be reserved for Rs aligned with the insurrection.

And he went to the floor tonight to demand a full roll call vote -- requiring all 400+ members to vote
This could be a big deal. Will Dems object to *every* suspension bill from the 100+ Rs who either voted to decertify or aided insurrection in another way?

One more example of how House members, particularly Dems, are very much NOT over what happened on Jan. 6.
Read 4 tweets

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