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Nov 16 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
This + Duda saying they have "no evidence as to who fired the missile" is more or less official confirmation that this was a Ukrainian air defence malfunction, they will keep making a bit of a show out of it, but not much else
I expect the party line to be "Ukraine wouldn't have to recklessly fire ancient AD rockets they have neglected to maintain for 30 years into neighboring countries if Russia didn't start the war so basically Putin killed those Polish citizens"
(Either that, or they'll just forget about it in a few days)

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More from @RWApodcast

Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Nov 15
Can anyone 1) confirm that this pic of debris was published by Polish media 2) identify the munition? Image
Or is that a part of something else
S-300 seems possible, but I'm not sure ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Nov 10
Okay, so, about Kherson. I’ll try to give an explanation as to what happened, without any constructs like "secret deals" or w/e. I don’t have any special information, this is just my personal view of the situation. TL;DR is that Surovikin's explanation is (mostly) correct.
The supply situation on the right bank was pretty fucked up, all the bridges were badly damaged, the pontoon crossings were actively being targeted. Supply was possible & satisfactory for the moment but the situation could change rapidly, esp. with AFU coming closer to the river.
The Russian forces on the right bank were pretty numerous, I’ve seen estimates between 20 and 30 thousand. The Kremlin is deathly afraid of casualties. They are risk-averse to a point that is actively damaging the military campaign.
Read 11 tweets
Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Nov 6
Pavlovka turning into a killing field, with Russians continuing frontal assaults & Ukrainians pouring in more and more reinforcements. Terrible fighting & high casualties all around. Very grim indeed.
It seems that both sides have overestimated their capabilities in that area. As Tom says, this little village near Ugledar is seeing more fighting right now than the whole Kharkov front during its collapse.
From what I understand, most of the fighting is occurring in this small area between Yegorovka to the south and Pavlovka to the north, with both sides having difficulties moving through the fields (that have turned into deep mud) & desperate skirmishes for the woods. Image
Read 5 tweets
Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Nov 1
My personal estimate of RuAF casualties is higher but three sources point to a number of ~7,000: RU MOD claimed around 6000 some time ago, BBC has confirmed a bit over 7000 & the Ukrainian government claims 70,000 (dividing/multiplying their claims by 10 is a good rule of thumb)
My personal estimate is to multiply RU MOD casualty claims by two and add the same number for Rosgvardiya/Donbass/Wagner to arrive at overall RU casualties, i.e. 6x2x2=24. The rule of thumb for Ukrainian claims is to divide or multiply by 10, they claimed 9k a while ago, so 90k.
This would give us ~100k Ukrainian KIA and ~25k overall Russian KIA as of now, which is realistic.
Read 4 tweets
Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Oct 31
I don't know if these are the same helicopter but the pictures and the video appeared at roughly the same time and the wreck that was photographed near Konstantinovka is definitely a Ukrainian Mi-8.
Yes I think only the Ukrainians still use the round nose Mi-8. The one on the video is either a rather old Russian one or Ukrainian.
Video quality is too low to be sure IMO.
Read 4 tweets
Russians With Attitude Profile picture
Oct 25
Ahhh, the OSINT experts at work ImageImage
Even the 🇺🇦-accounts that used to be at least *somewhat* honest/diligent have really stopped trying. DefMon, Jihadi Julian, Rob Lee just openly posting very obvious fakes & misattributions
The Bakhmut thing was outrageous, too. AFU posted a vid from SINIAT cement plant claiming they recaptured it from Wagner (it was never under RU control). Then 🇺🇦-twitter got the cement plant & asphalt factory mixed up & celebrated recapturing the latter (which didn't happen)
Read 4 tweets

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