Daniel Profile picture
Nov 16, 2022 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
12 Images that contain Wisdom EVERY Investor needs to know!

1. Investing is without alternative, but the average investor is terrible at it.

Primarily, because of their behavioral biases. We will explore many of them in the following images. Image
2. There will always be a good reason to sell.

But your performance wouldn’t look too good then… Image
3. We have talked a lot about a recession lately.

For our portfolios, it’s too late already. The year before the actual recession is the worst for stocks.

The good news, if you hold onto your investments, you’ll perform pretty well pretty soon. Image
4. In fact, the 12 months after a bear market are likely to be among the best you ever experience. Image
5. Declines are no reason to worry. It’s a part of the game an investor plays.

There are many opportunities in these declines for the rational investor. Image
6. Do not chase the moonshots.

The difference of 1% or 2% may seem small, but a little above average is outstandingly better in the long run. Image
7. Chasing such moonshots often ends with a severe loss of capital.

And making up for that loss is extremely difficult. Image
8. Interesting, especially in the current context of the Midterms.

The market doesn’t care too much about Democrats or Republicans. Image
9. The market behaves like a pendulum.

It spends most time in the middle. But occasionally, it gets to the extremes.

That’s why we have cycles and volatility, no linear growth. Image
10. Speaking about cycles, they’re embedded in our system. Image
11. Saving without investing is a bad idea. Image
12. Time in the market beats timing the market.

Missing only a few days in the market can cause you to be the average investor we saw in the first graph.

Even worse, the rallies are unpredictable and often in bear markets where many investors stand on the sideline. Image
If you enjoyed this post, please Like and Retweet this Thread so more people get to see it.

Follow me @MnkeDaniel to learn more about Investing

Ohh, and in case you want to read more in-depth articles on Investing and markets, you should follow my free Substack.

danielmnke.substack.com
Also, if you liked this thread, check out this one by @BrianFeroldi.

Phenomenal thread that inspired me to write this one.

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More from @MnkeDaniel

Jan 25
Peter Lynch is one of the most successful Fund Managers of all time!

He grew Assets under Management from $18 million to $14 billion in just 13 years.

His track record is so great because he knew when to sell.

Here are his 6 Strategies for Selling Stocks:Image
1. When to Sell... A Stalwart

Lynch classifies stocks into six categories.

We go through each and explain when he sells this category of stock.

Stalwarts grow decently (5-10%) and are low-risk investments.

He sells when...

- the P/E goes well above historical averages
- new product generation performs worse than the prior (after two years)
- the P/E is well above the industry average

Examples Stalwarts:Image
2. When to Sell... A Cyclical

Cyclicals are companies that move in line with the economy.

He sells when...

- inflation starts to rise
- the core commodity used in production declines in price
- the company engages in a price war

(I've recently researched a cyclical where some superinvestors and I see great potential. Link to my research in Bio)

Examples Cyclicals:Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
Joel Greenblatt compounded at over 40% from 1985 to 1994.

In his Columbia Class, he taught how he did it.

It's one of the best investing resources I've ever read!

Here are the 6 Key Points from Greenblatt's Columbia Class (+Free PDF)👇🏼 Image
1. What’s a good Business

It’s always: “Buy a good business at a fair price.”

But what is a good business?

This is Greenblatt’s criteria: Image
2. All about Valuation

To buy a good business at a fair price, you not only need to know what a good business is.

You also need to know what a good price is.

That's where valuation work comes into play.

If you're good at valuing companies, you'll succeed. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 12
Superinvestor Bill Ackman placed a $1.4 billion Bet on Nike Stock!

It's +11% of his Portfolio!

Since then, Nike stock is 20% cheaper. Is it a good buy now?

Let's take a look at Nike's Valuation:
$NKE Image
1. Stock Situation

Nike is down 55% from its 2021 All-Time High and flat since 2018.

What happened to Nike?

1. Direct-to-Consumer Focus
2. Mismanagement
3. Inflation and Competition

Let's dig deeper! Image
2.1 Direct-to-consumer Focus

In 2017, Nike decided to focus more on the DTC business.

Reasoning: Cut Costs, Improve Margins, Simplify Operations

The strategy worked great in the pandemic era, but growth slowed recently.

Problem: Retail Weakened more than expected! Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 8
Daniel Kahneman was the expert on Human Decision-Making.

Despite reading dozens of books and visiting university lectures, his book remains the best I ever read.

Here are 10 Biases explained in under 2 minutes that influence our Thinking and Decisions:
(I wish fewer people would fall for No.8...)Image
1. Self-Serving Bias - Our failures are situational, but our successes are our responsibility. Image
2. Curse of knowledge - Once we know something, we assume everyone else knows it, too. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 6
The S&P 500 returned the biggest 2-year gain in a century!

Does this mean there is a crash ahead? Is there a bubble?

I don't believe in fearmongering.
But history suggests significantly lower returns in the years ahead.

Here's how the Best Investors Prepare: Image
1. The Basis: Don't be Scared

Do not panic or let anyone scare you with crash narratives.

No one knows where the market will be next week let alone next year. No one!

Understanding that is the basis.
2. Risk vs. Reward

Could the rally continue? Of course!

But think about Risk and Reward.

Nvidia is valued at $3.5 trillion.
Is it more likely to reach $4.5T (+30%) or $2.5T (-30%).

Tough guess. But remember, losses are more difficult to recover.

The Risk/Reward shifted.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 4
You can never go wrong with learning from the best to ever do it!

Here are 5 Gems of Warren Buffett's and Charlie Munger's Wisdom:

1. Mental Attributes of Great Investors
2. Diversification is Protection against Ignorance
3. What's the Intrinsic Value of a Firm
Read 6 tweets

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