TLDR: The share of the variant zoo increased further with BQ.1* and XBB* at the top.
But there are interesting patterns underneath which can be illustrated by one exotic lineage: CH.1.1.
It’s rare, but it rises as fast as BQ.1.1. Why?
Background: There is a whole zoo of omicron sublineages, often defined by a range of mutations enabling partial immune escape.
Looking at the crude global increase over the past 28d CH.1.1 is one that has increased at the upper end of the flock.
Why does it spread as fast as BQ.1.1?
It turns out that it has independently acquired *the same set of key RBD mutations* as BQ.1.1.
Yet CH.1.1 derives from BA.2, while BQ.1.1 is a descendant of BA.5 though.
CH.1.1 makes up about 1% of cases in the U.K., 2% in Australia and 1-3% across Asia.
BQ.1.1 comprises 10-60% of cases except for Asia and Oceania.
The freq of CH.1.1 is considerably lower because it started spreading around *a month later later* than BQ.1.1, around October
So timing and location matter in a race with many lineages of almost equal potential.
This makes it very difficult to predict the eventual winner.
It may be that CH.1.1 ends up as a footnote.
Whoever wins though is very likely to have predictable characteristics.
The fact that the number of RBD variants leads to consistent selective advantages has been demonstrated before, eg in analyses by @TWenseleers and @CorneliusRoemer
But the extent and consistency of convergence has intriguing consequences.
There are some signs now that XBB.1.5 is loosing steam as it spreads through the wider population.
The share of cases has increased more slowly in the US and UK, recently.
A speculative thread why this might be.
In slowing down XBB.1.5 follows a pattern that has been noted also for BQ.1.1 or XBB.1.1.
Their initial fitness (daily increase of variant share) was higher than their long term advantage in a multi-lineage model with constant differences between variants (coloured lines).
In fact this slowing was observed for almost every Omicron lineage.
There is large variation between countries though, in part because of the low numbers at low incidence.
But the trends are clear that the initial growth rates dropped down on average between 0.02 to 0.04.
* BQ.1.1 spreads, albeit at the low end of expectations
* XBB* and BQ* lineages are the most widespread
* Further new variants have been defined, including CK.2.1.1 leading to complex patterns
While the initial estimates of BQ.1.1's growth advantage to BA.5 were between 10-15%, the estimate has come down to ~10% more recently.
As other more transmissible variants such as BF.7 have also spread the current fitness is lower, around 6-7%.
CK.2.1.1 came a bit out of the blue but is also contributing a measurable share of cases in countries such as Spain (~9%) and Germany (~3%).
It spreads at a similar rate as BQ.1, which it also matches in terms of key RBD mutations as shown below