Thread by @pevchikh

1/22 Why did Putin start the war and why are the western sanctions nowhere close to making him stop it? Great question, I am glad you asked. SANCTIONS THREAD 🧵🧵🧵. A little manual on how to make sanctions actually effective and what the real ‘mother of all sanctions’ could be.

2/22 Let’s start from the beginning. When the little aging dictator was sitting in his bunker dreaming of taking over Ukraine, he deliberated. No grand strategic master plans, perhaps, but he did weigh out the risks. He made a number of assumptions. Most of which were false.

3/22 For example, he was told that the Russian army would be greeted with flowers and tears of joy. That's what the generals promised. WRONG. Those corrupt crooks only cared about their personal enrichment and reported whatever Putin wanted to hear from them.

4/22 He also thought that the Ukrainian government would either flee or take his side. Putin had been bribing them through people like Medvedchuk for years. Billions were paid out. The day came and nothing happened. Again, this is what happens when corrupt crooks run a country.

5/22 Another assumption was that the Russian army is capable of taking over Kiev in 3 days. The 'special operation' was meant to be quick and painless. But now we all have seen what 'the second greatest army of the world' is really capable of. Thank God, to be honest.

6/22 Finally, Putin was sure that he would get away with it, that the worst he would get would be ‘deep concern’. Sadly, this assumption is mainly CORRECT. Despite the initial wave of heavy sanctions, they have now thinned to a level of minor nuisance. This can be fixed though.

7/22 I personally think that Putin is rather basic but not completely stupid. He is capable of making a simple observation:‘I do evil stuff — and nothing happens’. Annexation of Crimea? A few of his oligarch childhood friends got sanctioned. Whatever they lost, Putin compensated.

8/22 De-facto annexation of Donbass? The Salisbury poisoning? The Syrian war? MH-17 getting shot down by the Russian army, killing 300 people? I remind you that Russia hosted the FIFA World Cup AFTER these events. Putin was condemned, sure, but still seen as a valuable partner.

9/22 All of the above already constituted war crimes and terrorism. But each time only a dozen or two individuals would get sanctioned. GRU agents, a few military generals, the insane war commander Girkin… That was the price, apparently. Sounds like a great deal to be honest.

10/22 This week the EU sanctioned 8 FSB agents who tried to kill my boss @navalny, who was poisoned on August 20, 2020. By early September it was announced that it was Novichok. No one would investigate this, so we did it ourselves with @christogrozev. It didn’t take long, guys.

11/22 It took us 2-3 weeks to learn the names of the entire FSB poisoning team. A week later, Navalny spoke to one of them on the phone (the guy confessed). And then it took TWO YEARS to ban these murderers from entering Europe? Seriously? Putin got away with it, let's face it.

12/22 Let me give you a taste of the rest of the sanctions. Siemens was circumventing them straight away by supplying turbines to Crimea via intermediary. It's been 267 days since the start of the war, and PUTIN'S EX-WIFE who owns houses in 🇫🇷,🇨🇭&🇪🇸 still hasn't been sanctioned.

13/22 Now put yourselves in Putin's shoes. Isn’t this a very small price to pay for being allowed to do literally anything you want?

14/22 But enough complaining. What’s done is done, everyone seems to have acknowledged the mistake, but nothing is being fixed. Here’s what we propose: the list of 6000 individuals who we believe to be vital to Putin's regime. SANCTION THEM TODAY.
acf.international/list-of-war-en…

15/22 No existing legal framework? Then write it, for God’s sake. Your job as legislators is to come up with legal mechanisms to respond adequately to the needs of your citizens. Your citizens don’t want Russian dirty money close to their homes. This money is soaking with blood.

16/22 What’s the point in applying outdated laws and policies ad nauseam and expecting them to eventually work? They never will. New solutions are needed.

17/22 After sanctioning 6000, sanction 1000 more next Thursday. Then another 1000 the Thursday after. You work for Putin? You support the war? You’re a government official, a propagandist person or a pop star praising Putin? You’re done. Game over. Sanctions.

18/22 But if we're talking about the real ‘mother of all sanctions' there must be a twist. To each and all of these people, one thing needs to be offered - A WAY OUT, a set of actions they need to take to be immediately taken off the list, saving most of their wealth and assets

19/22 I don’t know what these actions should be. A public statement, a massive donation to Ukraine, maybe a public confession about Putin’s crimes. Maybe some of them can get political prisoners out. Or negotiate something else. Or hire a hitman

20/22 There must be a way to betray Putin without losing everything both in Russia and abroad. One public case is needed to show that turning against Putin is the best strategy for them. The UK, for instance, could do that instead of granting the oligarchs crazy £££ ‘allowances’.

21/22 This approach undermines the very core of the system that Putin has built, where oligarchs are funding his regime, sponsoring projects and government officials (see Deripaska-Lavrov) in exchange for access to resources. Shall we see what happens when this money flow stops?

22/22 At the very least, it will be something different. I never really thought I'd write this. My feelings as an investigator are genuinely hurt by the fact some crooks could escape prison. But maybe they can get away if this means stopping the war and Putin’s rule forever.