Thread by @JohnB_Schneider

After seeing the video posted by @UAWeapons of a 🇷🇺 Lancet hitting a 5N63S radar, I figured that this deserved some more attention.

Hard to answer the decoy question on the spot, but this is definitely a 🇷🇺 5N63S radar struck by a 🇷🇺 Lancet loitering drone.

A short 🧵

1/

The location of the system is @GeoConfirmed at 47.02903, 33.2402, which is in the Kherson Oblast.

The video came online on Nov 16th, if we assume that the attack was recent and consider the nice weather during the attack, 14/15 Nov seems the most probable days.

2/

Below is the map with the location (47.02903, 33.2402) and the frontline from just before the 🇷🇺 occupiers left the Kherson area.

3/

Around that time, the whole Kherson area was already abandoned by 🇷🇺, allowing for 🇺🇦 to reclaim their lands.

So when was this radar system present?

The picture below is from 03 Nov 22, SIX days before 🇷🇺 left. Clearly this was 🇷🇺 radar! Note both TEL's marked in red.

4/

But even if we go way back in time to as early as 02 Sep 22, this system is already present 🤔

Let's be honest, a S-300 radar with 2 launchers that doesn't move for 2 months. Very very odd indeed.

All 3 systems could have been struck by 🇺🇦, but there are no signs of that.

5/

What else is there to learn from the attack video?

Well it misses both generators and the tall antenna behind the driver compartment. That could have been recovered after it was struck, but it is almost impossible to prove.

6/

What else?

On the radar piece, there is no door visible on the side, however as depicted in the red square, a door is present were it is not to be expected.

7/

To sum it all up:
- 5N63S radar and both TEL's are 🇷🇺
- all systems were already present in Sep 22, well before 🇺🇦 took the area back
- no visible damage on Sat imagery
- 5N63S radar lacks some parts and looks somewhat different, that could indicate it is a decoy.

/8

But great job 🇷🇺, decoy or not, you still hit one of your own 🥳

If I knew better I would say one of the raccoons you stole was flying🦝

/9

@UAWeapons Ping
@DefMon3
@Tatarigami_UA
@ArtisanalAPT
@NLwartracker
@COUPSURE
@EerikMatero
@bayraktar_1love

Great new picture below from the 🇷🇺 5N63S radar.

I can't see any damage to it, so likely this picture was taken before the Lancet bumped into it.

By the looks it's not a decoy, but rather a damaged one used in a decoy context.

Thanks 🇺🇦 @mil_in_ua 🇺🇦for sharing this!

/10

Oh boy, it becomes even more interesting, seems like @MattBartholome9 found some proof of damage. Looks as the Lancet had some sort of ricochet on the edge. Well spotted!

/11

And some bonus material from the spot. Both launchers are still there too.

/12