🧵Yesterday's conspiracy-theories are still conspiracy-theories. I thought I'd write a thread rebutting the points in this thread. 1/
The story hasn't change.
Sure, minor details get confused in stories like this. Conspiracy-theorists make mountains out of insignificant molehills.
This bodycam issue still shows DePape attacking Pelosi with a hammer.
Such stories always have a "fog of war" aspect. There are always small, insignificant details that people get wrong. Regardless about "open the door", the facts are the same: DePape broke in looking for Nancy, and shortly after police arrive, hit Paul Pelosi with the hammer.
Conspiracy-theorists still have no coherent claim, except that "they" are lying to us because some insignificant details are fuzzy. But no matter how clear the events, conspiracy-theorists always hunt for fuzzy details to pretend there's something else going on.
The documents are government property. The National Archives are in charge of them. They worked with Trump for a year trying to get them back. Trump refused. "Merely ego" was always the leading reason.

They are still of interest, because Trump is violating the law keeping them.
The government doesn't work on the principle "okay, you can break the law as long as you aren't selling nuclear secrets".

The government works on the principle "by law, you can't have them, they are government property, and we have to get them" -- no matter how insignificant.
Of course.
Trump's response to the Jan6 committee was a 14 page letter repeating his lies, misrepresentations, and baseless claims of election fraud.
The cause of the attack is a far bigger problem than police response.
Certainly, I would hope the Capitol Police would conduct an investigation of their own failure.

I would hope that congressional inquiries only take place when there's a national failure. Which there is -- Republicans refusing to acknowledge that Trump tried to stay in power.
FBI informants aren't FBI agents, they aren't undercover cops.
They are almost always committed members of the target enterprise who find it advantageous to occasionally give info to the FBI, such as getting out of parking tickets. They aren't necessarily on the FBI's side.
The chief benefit to being an FBI informant as a member of the Oath Keepers is to sic the FBI on fellow members you don't like. The best way to rise in the organization is to inform on rivals. Oath Keeper leaders have good reason to inform to the FBI while plotting insurrection.
BTW, the same thing works in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. Intelligence is constantly struggling with informants who hate the United States, and who the next day may be shooting at US soldiers, but who find it convenient for their own purposes to inform.
This affects reliability. Such informations may be telling us the truth in order to dispose of one of their rivals. But they may also be lying.
Anyway, the point that FBI had informants involved in the attack doesn't mean the FBI was involved in the attack.
SBF gave millions to Democrats.
Caroline Edison, in charge of Alemeda, gave millions to Republicans.
Both were intended to get favorable regulations.

There's no Democrat conspiracy here, just fraudsters who commit fraud.
It's still conspiracy theories. I defended the documents as being unimportant months ago. The difference is that I wasn't using this to argue the raid was illegitimate. The documents are still government property, as true then as now.

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More from @ErrataRob

Nov 19
🧵I've consulted with a number of VCs. Most things are crap.
I don't think I've helped their decision making process.
Sometimes they didn't invest, sometimes they did, and I don't think I influenced them either way.
They don't really care if it works now, only if it plausibly works.
You can go a long way selling something what plausibly works to dumb customers with splashy marketing efforts.
Which makes you a leader in this new space.
Which attracts expert employees.
Once you've now attracted the top experts and new Ph.D. hires, because you are the leading company in this space, because of your enormous marketing investment, now you can do what's necessary to make it work.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 18
What's fascinating about this story is the slowness for a new consensus to emerge.

The was no "liquidity crunch". He admits to misusing customer funds, violating the customer contract saying he could only store them or trade as customer directed.
it's not a complex fraud. It's even easier to understand than Madoff or Enron.

Imagine if your bank or retirement fund calls you up and says "BTW, we just lost your entire life savings by betting on horses at the track. Sorry."
That's what FTX did.
"We had intended to pay you back, with our winnings, because we were following a hot tip, so it was a sure thing. You wouldn't even have noticed the money was gone. But we messed up. Sorry, we'll try to do better next time."
Read 7 tweets
Nov 16
🧵"Twitter 2.0" is trending.
I'm a foremost expert on this and let me tell you what you should do: quit, take the 3 month severance with your friends, and build the 2.0 version yourself. Musk will give up and buy your company in a couple years. Image
I tweet this out right now for those twitter employees currently deciding whether they should take the severance.
TAKE THE SEVERANCE
TAKE THE SEVERANCE
TAKE THE SEVERANCE

I got rich by taking the severance and building the 2.0 product myself. You can do it.
This is actually the unspoken engine that drives Silicon Valley. Big companies are always trying to build "next generation" products, but they usually end up building a next generation product from smaller companies.
Read 28 tweets
Nov 15
🧵Q: Why the puff piece? Why does the NYTimes fail to call the FTX collapse what it is, "fraud"?
A: Because the the NYTimes only quotes people who matter, important people. The people who understand why FTX is a fraud aren't important enough.
It was not a "run". It's not like "It's a Wonderful Life" where the bank is solvent, but most of the money is in people's houses. FTX is insolvent -- the "money" is in worthless ponzi coins.
FTX has the spreadsheet.
$5.9 billion worthless ponzi coin FTT that FTX created
$5.4 billion wrothless ponzi coin Serum that FTX created
$2.2 billion ponzi coin Solana created by others
$0.5 billion worthless ponzi coin MAPS that FTX created

archive.ph/RyG1D
Read 12 tweets
Nov 14
They don't look like fraud.
Instead, one side takes innocent things and portrays them as fraud.
There's not an election system in the world that you can't pull apart an insist there's fraud.
Fundamental to our system is the "secret ballot". For good or bad, it means we can never match votes with voters. It's probably good, because without it, you get bad fraud where people are coerced, bribed, or pressured into voting a certain way.
But since you can never prove how somebody voted, you can always create conspiracy theories about ballot stuffing and changed votes.
That's why patriots don't claim fraud without actual evidence -- because they know they can always claim fraud without evidence.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 13
🧵Sigh.
Everyone dunking on this tweet from Elon is wrong. There's nothing particularly wrong with it.
It's a common code problem Twitter might have (many smaller ops to fulfill one large request).
It's common service problem (not enough servers in some countries).
I'm not saying Elon is smart here, only that he's not particularly dumb.
Everyone believes Elon is dumb, not a real engineer, and is looking for confirmation of their bias.
The reality is that Elon really is an engineer, or at least enough of one to understand this issue.
What I think is going on here is probably the same confirmation bias. Elon was already convinced Twitter code is inefficient, so is on a witchhunt to find the most inefficient parts of the code to pretend Twitter's old engineers were stupid.
Read 17 tweets

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