Great question. Dumb, but that makes it only better. Short answer: in the recent decades manufacturing digitalised. In 1991 90% machine tools were conventional (mechanical basically). Now most are computer controlled and very software dependent, especially for precision machining
So yr understanding of industrial machines is sorta adequate to how most of them worked 30 years ago. Back then they were kinda autonomous: you buy them and they work. May be you need to buy spare parts, but that’s it. Because they were mechanical. No computer -> no disconnection
Modern machines are different. Computer control. Graphical User Interface. You don’t need to control it with your hands like 30 years ago. You may not even need to code like 15 years ago. You can often pick button on a screen -> I want *this* component design from the online bank
When we discuss modern high end tools, we should understand that this physical object is merely an element of the integrated ecosystem. It’s not worth much without the access to the cloud. Which makes Industrie 4.0 concept efficient but vulnerable
Now Russian military industry is sometimes closer to the Industrie 4.0 than even the German one. That’s understandable. Russian leadership has huuuge trust in machines and very little trust in people. Russian managerial culture is much more technocentric than German
I think if Russian leadership could produce high end weaponry without those dirty filthy workers, they would totally do it. They just can’t. But wherever possible they tried to get closer to this goal. Whenever possible they would try to minimise human participation in production
You don’t trust your workers. Understandable. You integrate everything into automated Industrie 4.0-ish system. But you still rely on human competences. It’s just that you outsourced them abroad and are now totally dependent upon foreign expertise. You are on life support
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👇When we are talking about a truce or even peace, we should keep in mind that Russia won't be honouring it. Any ceasefire will be used for regrouping, restocking and then attacking again with a better chance of success. Notice that they compare Russian situation to Khasavyurt
First Chechen war 1994-1996 ended with Khasavyurt Accords. Russia withdrew it forces from Chechnya. Independence of Chechnya remained an open question which had to be determined by 2001
Next year, in 1997 Russia signed a peace treaty with Chechnya. President Yeltsin agreed on "rejecting forever the use of force" and "developing relations on the norms of international law". Many viewed it as the de facto recognition of independence
I'd say that is a false dichotomy. Logic may help to do what you do in a more or less efficient way. But *what* you choose to do - this choice is arbitrary. You may pursue your goals in a rational way, yes, but the choice of a goal is irrational. Refusal to choose - also a choice
Still, if we have to compare, most Russians tend to be more pragmatic than most Westerners. So using your term, *more* logical. They're more oriented to pursue earthly, material goals. It's just that the planning horizon is very short, so this behaviour seems to be "irrational"
Example - send your sons to the war, so you can get material benefits. Absolutely rational, pragmatic behaviour with a short planning horizon. They absolutely do count, they just count badly and do not look forward too far. That doesn't mean they're not pragmatic, they are
It was revealed to me in a dream that producers of key cruise missiles and components for them (engine producer ODK Saturn for example) have been actively expanding their workforce -> They most probably work 24/7 -> Western suppliers didn't disconnect machines they sold to Russia
Russia can produce precision components in massive quantities -> It is a strong indication that Western suppliers of industrial machines did *not* disconnect their products. It's highly likely they're updating software and maintaining them remotely keeping Russian army afloat
Western = Western European (primarily German) + the role of Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Korea) increased in the last years. Out of American companies - HAAS plays a major role. There is a bunch of small suppliers: Australia, Brazil, Turkey and mainland China but they do not matter much
In a sense, navalnist nonsense is structurally similar to the Mearsheimer's nonsense. In both cases you dismiss any evidence contradicting your priors. In your case that would be:
They're all "crooks" and personal profits is their primary motivation
Counterpoint - February 24
Navalnist Theory of Putin is wrong, not because it is 100% false (same for Mearsheimer - some of his arguments may be correct), but because it is absurdly reductionist
They steal -> They're "corrupt" -> Money is all they're about
This interview illustrates some key fallacies, shortcomings and outright intellectual dishonesty associated with Mearsheimer's realist approach. And since his authority is instrumental in legitimising the appeasement advocacy, I will discuss it in detail🧵
Let's start with dishonesty. Mearsheimer denies that Putin hold any intention to conquer Ukraine before this war. He even quotes Putin's article of July 2021 as an evidence of Putin "recognising the Ukrainian sovereignty". This is a highly inaccurate representation of its content
Putin argued that modern borders of Ukraine are illegitimate. They had more territory leaving the USSR in 1991 than they had joining it in 1922. Justice would require Ukraine to give it all away [to Russia]
Yevgeny Nuzhin was a Russian prison inmate who enlisted into the Wagner mercenary group to fight in Ukraine. After being captured by Ukrainians he expressed his desire to fight against Putin. He was exchanged and then executed with sledgehammer according to Wagner traditions.
Wagner is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin who himself had spent 10 years in prison for violent crimes. Upon release he launched a catering business and eventually became known as "Putin's cook". In this capacity he established a Wagner mercenary group fighting colonial wars for Russia
Wagner mercenaries ironically style themselves as "ихтамнеты" ("they are not there"). It means that they are fighting in many countries where Russia has no official presence. If questioned, Russia will deny Wagners being there/connection of Wagner to Kremlin. Hence the nickname