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Michael Tracey Profile picture
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Nov 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It's gotten overlooked because of the absurd snail's pace vote counting, but there looks to have been a modest "red wave" in California, akin to what happened in New York. This district voted for Biden by 11 points in 2020, and the GOP candidate is currently ahead by a whisker
Similarly, Biden won this district by 12 points in 2020
Incumbency and Porter's notoriety propelled her to a 3 point win in this district, but Biden won it by 11 points in 2020
Even in this heavily Democratic district, there was a similar shift: Biden won it by 46 points in 2020. Democratic House candidate on pace to win by 36 points in 2022. Not sure if you'd call a ~10 point shift throughout much of the state a "wave," but seems notable regardless
All figures based on tabulations using post-redistricting 2020 vote counts: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

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More from @mtracey

Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 20
Strange underestimation of Trump going on. He's in a position of power that is historically unprecedented for a GOP primary. Semi-incumbent. Got 74+ million votes in 2020. Even beat Hillary Clinton back in the day. Pundits wish-casting for DeSantis don't change this basic picture
Trump to Evangelical GOP primary voters: "Oh by the way I appointed the Supreme Court justices that finally overturned Roe vs. Wade"

GOP primary opponents: *crickets*
Just remember that a healthy plurality of conservative pundits were convinced Marco Rubio had a surefire path to the GOP nomination in 2016
Read 5 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 20
What's the over-under on how many Trump Administration officials are planning to run against Trump in the GOP primary? Right now at least three look almost certain: Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, and Nikki Haley (real All-Star cast there)
Chris Christie was Trump's lead Debate Prep advisor and at one point was begged to become Chief of Staff, so I guess you could put him on the list as well. Maybe Jeff Sessions will run 😂
Honestly I think Bill Barr should run, especially in this "no f*cks left to give" phase of his career. I'd pay to watch him debate Trump
Read 4 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 20
Final result of Musk poll on whether to reinstate Trump:

Yes 51.8%
No 48.2%

2016 Brexit referendum:

Leave 51.9%
Remain 48.1%
2022 popular vote for House of Representatives, current margin:

Republicans 50.9%
Democrats 47.6%
2004 presidential election popular vote:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.3%
Read 5 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 17
The current explanation for the Poland missile incident doesn't add up. If it was a "mistake" by Ukraine's missile defense, what/where was the intended target? Is there any evidence that Russia actually fired missiles somewhere in the vicinity on the Ukraine side of the border?
It also doesn't add up that Zelensky and top Ukraine officials would continue to insist they didn't fire the missiles. They have to know the US/NATO have the entire area covered by state-of-the-art radar. Why would they publicly contradict the chief sponsors of their war effort?
They could easily admit they "errantly" fired the missiles, but blame Russia for creating the situation where such errors can occur. Seems like an explanation that would be widely accepted. But they're insisting they didn't even fire the missiles. Why? Something doesn't add up
Read 5 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 15
Amazing how this made-up claim spread like wildfire without anyone ever checking the source, but it's OK because "Iran bad, they help Russia and hate women"
The claim appears to have originated with some bogus Ukrainian media account, which provided no direct quotes detailing the supposed mass-execution plan -- would love to know this account's proficiency in translating Persian to Ukrainian to English
"Newsweek" then aggregated this tweet and posted an article, which is their typical model. Many still see articles from "Newsweek" and mistakenly assume it's a Serious outlet, when for years it's just been an aggregation farm that appropriates the "Newsweek" legacy branding Image
Read 6 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Nov 11
NYT: don't worry, it's totally "normal" that several major states in the wealthiest country on earth are chronically incapable of counting votes within a remotely reasonable timeframe. Because these days, criticizing any aspect of election procedure makes you an "insurrectionist"
NYT on Florida's vote-counting procedure in the 2000 election: Don't worry everyone, this is totally normal

Or... a year later the NYT was reporting that because the 2000 election in Florida was so irreparably "fouled-up," no one will ever know for sure "who got the most votes"
Unfortunately, the NYT hadn't invented the term "election denier" yet in 2004. I'm sure it would've been applied equally to everyone who questioned the Ohio election results that year, with no regard to partisanship
Read 4 tweets

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