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Nov 23, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Cash Flows matter most.

As an investor, you NEED to understand cash flow statements.

Let’s talk through how a Cash Flow Statement works👇🏼 Image
A Cash Flow Statement is divided into three parts:

1) CF from Operating Activities
2) CF from Investing Activities
3) CF from Financing Activities Image
1. CF from Operating Activities

a) We start with the net income from the income statement.

b) We then add back all non-cash charges.

Those are expenses for which no cash is actually paid at that moment.

c) After adding/subtracting NWC, we get net cash from op. Act. Image
2. CF from Investing Activities

This section shows the cash spent or generated by investments made.

a) Capital expenditures and acquisitions always represent expenses.

b) If the company sold equipment, securities, or other parts of the business, we add the generated cash here. Image
3. CF from Financing Activities

This section shows the cash flows used to fund the company.

a) CFs are positive when the company issued debt, negative when repaying debt

b) Same goes for stock issuing or repurchasing

c) If the company pays a dividend that gets subtracted Image
We end up with the net increase/decrease in cash.

The results of the cash flow statements of companies are often volatile.

It‘s important to look for the reason for that volatility.

Let‘s take a look at an example. Image
Those are the CF Statements of Apple.

Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world.

Yet, CFs have been negative for the last three years.

Is Apple, in fact, an unprofitable business? Image
As you can see, operating CFs are positive and growing, so the business model works.

Investing CFs are very volatile. The reason seems to be the Short Term Investments.

Let‘s see why. Image
The main differences between 2019 and 2020 were purchases of marketable securities.

So this is not directly related to the business model.

But generally, the negative CFs stem from the huge stock repurchase program of Apple.

Without them, Apple is highly CF positive. Image
That’s a wrap!

If you enjoyed this thread, please follow me @MnkeDaniel and retweet the Thread below:

Ohh, and in case you want to read more in-depth articles on Investing and markets, you should follow my free Substack.

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More from @MnkeDaniel

Jan 25
Peter Lynch is one of the most successful Fund Managers of all time!

He grew Assets under Management from $18 million to $14 billion in just 13 years.

His track record is so great because he knew when to sell.

Here are his 6 Strategies for Selling Stocks:Image
1. When to Sell... A Stalwart

Lynch classifies stocks into six categories.

We go through each and explain when he sells this category of stock.

Stalwarts grow decently (5-10%) and are low-risk investments.

He sells when...

- the P/E goes well above historical averages
- new product generation performs worse than the prior (after two years)
- the P/E is well above the industry average

Examples Stalwarts:Image
2. When to Sell... A Cyclical

Cyclicals are companies that move in line with the economy.

He sells when...

- inflation starts to rise
- the core commodity used in production declines in price
- the company engages in a price war

(I've recently researched a cyclical where some superinvestors and I see great potential. Link to my research in Bio)

Examples Cyclicals:Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
Joel Greenblatt compounded at over 40% from 1985 to 1994.

In his Columbia Class, he taught how he did it.

It's one of the best investing resources I've ever read!

Here are the 6 Key Points from Greenblatt's Columbia Class (+Free PDF)👇🏼 Image
1. What’s a good Business

It’s always: “Buy a good business at a fair price.”

But what is a good business?

This is Greenblatt’s criteria: Image
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To buy a good business at a fair price, you not only need to know what a good business is.

You also need to know what a good price is.

That's where valuation work comes into play.

If you're good at valuing companies, you'll succeed. Image
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Jan 12
Superinvestor Bill Ackman placed a $1.4 billion Bet on Nike Stock!

It's +11% of his Portfolio!

Since then, Nike stock is 20% cheaper. Is it a good buy now?

Let's take a look at Nike's Valuation:
$NKE Image
1. Stock Situation

Nike is down 55% from its 2021 All-Time High and flat since 2018.

What happened to Nike?

1. Direct-to-Consumer Focus
2. Mismanagement
3. Inflation and Competition

Let's dig deeper! Image
2.1 Direct-to-consumer Focus

In 2017, Nike decided to focus more on the DTC business.

Reasoning: Cut Costs, Improve Margins, Simplify Operations

The strategy worked great in the pandemic era, but growth slowed recently.

Problem: Retail Weakened more than expected! Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 8
Daniel Kahneman was the expert on Human Decision-Making.

Despite reading dozens of books and visiting university lectures, his book remains the best I ever read.

Here are 10 Biases explained in under 2 minutes that influence our Thinking and Decisions:
(I wish fewer people would fall for No.8...)Image
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2. Curse of knowledge - Once we know something, we assume everyone else knows it, too. Image
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Jan 6
The S&P 500 returned the biggest 2-year gain in a century!

Does this mean there is a crash ahead? Is there a bubble?

I don't believe in fearmongering.
But history suggests significantly lower returns in the years ahead.

Here's how the Best Investors Prepare: Image
1. The Basis: Don't be Scared

Do not panic or let anyone scare you with crash narratives.

No one knows where the market will be next week let alone next year. No one!

Understanding that is the basis.
2. Risk vs. Reward

Could the rally continue? Of course!

But think about Risk and Reward.

Nvidia is valued at $3.5 trillion.
Is it more likely to reach $4.5T (+30%) or $2.5T (-30%).

Tough guess. But remember, losses are more difficult to recover.

The Risk/Reward shifted.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 4
You can never go wrong with learning from the best to ever do it!

Here are 5 Gems of Warren Buffett's and Charlie Munger's Wisdom:

1. Mental Attributes of Great Investors
2. Diversification is Protection against Ignorance
3. What's the Intrinsic Value of a Firm
Read 6 tweets

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