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Nov 23 11 tweets 4 min read
Cash Flows matter most.

As an investor, you NEED to understand cash flow statements.

Let’s talk through how a Cash Flow Statement works👇🏼 Image
A Cash Flow Statement is divided into three parts:

1) CF from Operating Activities
2) CF from Investing Activities
3) CF from Financing Activities Image
1. CF from Operating Activities

a) We start with the net income from the income statement.

b) We then add back all non-cash charges.

Those are expenses for which no cash is actually paid at that moment.

c) After adding/subtracting NWC, we get net cash from op. Act. Image
2. CF from Investing Activities

This section shows the cash spent or generated by investments made.

a) Capital expenditures and acquisitions always represent expenses.

b) If the company sold equipment, securities, or other parts of the business, we add the generated cash here. Image
3. CF from Financing Activities

This section shows the cash flows used to fund the company.

a) CFs are positive when the company issued debt, negative when repaying debt

b) Same goes for stock issuing or repurchasing

c) If the company pays a dividend that gets subtracted Image
We end up with the net increase/decrease in cash.

The results of the cash flow statements of companies are often volatile.

It‘s important to look for the reason for that volatility.

Let‘s take a look at an example. Image
Those are the CF Statements of Apple.

Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world.

Yet, CFs have been negative for the last three years.

Is Apple, in fact, an unprofitable business? Image
As you can see, operating CFs are positive and growing, so the business model works.

Investing CFs are very volatile. The reason seems to be the Short Term Investments.

Let‘s see why. Image
The main differences between 2019 and 2020 were purchases of marketable securities.

So this is not directly related to the business model.

But generally, the negative CFs stem from the huge stock repurchase program of Apple.

Without them, Apple is highly CF positive. Image
That’s a wrap!

If you enjoyed this thread, please follow me @MnkeDaniel and retweet the Thread below:

Ohh, and in case you want to read more in-depth articles on Investing and markets, you should follow my free Substack.

danielmnke.substack.com

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More from @MnkeDaniel

Nov 21
The average investor underperforms the market.

The top 1% of Investors double or triple the market’s return.

The Reason: Investor’s Psychology

Here’s a list of 13 biases you need to avoid (+Investment Psychology Checklist PDF for free)👇🏼
How this Thread helps you avoid the biases:

1) Awareness - Being aware of them is already half a win

2) Routine - I created a checklist of the biases influencing your investment process.

The checklist is on my Substack (for free), link below.
1. Cognitive Ease

Cognitive ease is the main reason all the following biases work so well.

Cognitive ease is a desirable state of mind associated with good feelings.

But it leads to bad decision-making.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 19
Jeremy Grantham manages $70 billion at GMO, a firm he co-founded.

He called the last 4 Big Bubbles in finance, including the 2021 bubble.

Maybe that’s why he is often called a “perma bear.”

Besides skepticism, here are the 9 Keys to his Investment Strategy👇🏼
1. Career Risk

Professional money managers cannot deviate much from the pack.

The more their approach differs, the bigger the risk of losing their jobs.

Individual investors don’t have that risk.

Long-term investors can massively benefit from that.
2. Risk Doesn’t Reward Anyone

In university, they teach you that higher risk = higher returns.

That’s the first thing you need to forget when you get into investing.

Risk is a way to get punished.

A good investment is cheap and carries little risk relative to the reward.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 17
The P/E Ratio is the most used Ratio by far.

Yet, 99%(not statistically accurate😉) of Investors lose money because of the way they use it.

Let me explain what the P/E Ratio tells you and how it’s used the right way👇🏼
1. Understanding P/E

P/E Stands for Price to Earnings.

Accordingly, it tells us about the relation of price and earnings.

What multiple do we need to pay on earnings?

If a company earns $10 per share and the stock costs $100, the P/E ratio is 10. Image
2. How it’s mostly used

Most investors compare the P/E ratios of different companies.

The lower the P/E, the cheaper.

This is not inherently wrong, keeping it simple can make sense and the general logic is correct.

However, you’ll never find a great investment this way!
Read 11 tweets
Nov 16
12 Images that contain Wisdom EVERY Investor needs to know!

1. Investing is without alternative, but the average investor is terrible at it.

Primarily, because of their behavioral biases. We will explore many of them in the following images. Image
2. There will always be a good reason to sell.

But your performance wouldn’t look too good then… Image
3. We have talked a lot about a recession lately.

For our portfolios, it’s too late already. The year before the actual recession is the worst for stocks.

The good news, if you hold onto your investments, you’ll perform pretty well pretty soon. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 15
Give me 2 minutes to explain the last 2 weeks in the markets.

▪️FED / Interest Rates / CPI
▪️Labor Market / Tech Layoffs
▪️China: Zero-Covid and Tech Earnings
▪️The US Midterms
▪️The FTX Bankruptcy
1. FED / Interest Rates / CPI

On Nov. 2, the FED announced the fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike.

This marks the fastest rate hikes of all time.

Yet, the markets rallied after weaker-than-expected CPI data, 7.7% instead of 8%.

The S&P was up 5.5%, and the NASDAQ 7.5%. Image
2. Labor Market / Tech Layoffs

The still strong labor market worried the FED.

But that might change now. Many companies in and outside of tech announced significant layoffs.

ISM reports also show contracting employment in the services sector. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 13
Every Investor MUST know how to analyze companies.

A huge part of that, is analyzing the 3 financial statements.

Here’s how to analyze and interpret the…

- Balance Sheet
- Income Statement
- Cash Flow Statement Image
1. Balance Sheet

The balance sheet tells you about the net worth and health of a company.

What assets does the company own (Assets)
and
Where did the money for those assets come from (Liabilities) Image
1.1 What to look for?

1) Cash & Equivalents Position
2) Relation of Debt and Equity
3) Retained Earnings Position Image
Read 13 tweets

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