🧵We've pulled together some of the false claims about crime and incarceration you're most likely to hear at the Thanksgiving dinner table, and the data and facts to help you push back:
Claim #1: "Crime is up because of bail reform!"
Response:
Very few places have actually eliminated or reduced their dependence on money bail.
In those places that have reined in their money bail system, most saw decreases or negligible increases in crime after reforms...
Response:
Very few places have actually eliminated or reduced their dependence on money bail.
In those places that have reined in their money bail system, most saw decreases or negligible increases in crime after reforms...
For example, in 2017 New Jersey eliminated the use of cash bail. After that reform, the state's pretrial population decreased by 50%, and violent crime decreased by 16%.
prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/11/1…
prisonpolicy.org/blog/2020/11/1…
Claim #2: "Crime is out of control."
Response:
Crime remains at historically low levels.
The perception that crime is up is driven by hyperbolic media coverage and claims by opportunistic elected officials.
Property crime is at its lowest level in more than 30 years.
Response:
Crime remains at historically low levels.
The perception that crime is up is driven by hyperbolic media coverage and claims by opportunistic elected officials.
Property crime is at its lowest level in more than 30 years.
While violent crime has risen slightly in recent years — roughly 4% since 2019 — violent crime rates are still almost half of what they were 30 years ago.
Claim #3: "Crime is up because we defunded the police."
Response:
Very few cities actually defunded the police. In a small subset of these, crime went up slightly this year, but this is likely related to the pandemic and economic hardships. (continued)
Response:
Very few cities actually defunded the police. In a small subset of these, crime went up slightly this year, but this is likely related to the pandemic and economic hardships. (continued)
Even if places had reduced police funding, most policing has little to do with real threats to public safety: the vast majority of arrests are for low-level offenses. Only 5% of all arrests are for serious violent offenses.
theintercept.com/2019/01/31/arr…
theintercept.com/2019/01/31/arr…
The vast majority of people arrested repeatedly are not actually violent and are more likely to simply have economic and health disadvantages that put them in more frequent contact with police.
A better solution to crime is to attack inequality.
A better solution to crime is to attack inequality.
Moreover, there are already tried-and-tested alternatives to police that do better at protecting public safety: Triage centers and civilian response teams for people in behavioral health crises, programs for youth, expanded healthcare...
...diversion programs, safe spaces for domestic violence victims, and fully funding services like sanitation.
Claim #4: "Tons of people were released from prison during the pandemic."
Response:
While prison and jail populations did drop early in the pandemic, this isn't due to releases. Prisons actually released fewer people in 2020 than in 2019.
prisonpolicy.org/blog/2022/01/1…
Response:
While prison and jail populations did drop early in the pandemic, this isn't due to releases. Prisons actually released fewer people in 2020 than in 2019.
prisonpolicy.org/blog/2022/01/1…
In fact, drops in prison populations during Covid are almost entirely attributable to fewer admissions, rather than more releases.
In many places, prison and jail populations are already at or above pre-pandemic levels.
In many places, prison and jail populations are already at or above pre-pandemic levels.
Claim #5: "Sometimes jail or prison is the best place for someone - they can get the help they need."
Response:
Even in the best of times, jails and prisons are not good at providing health and social services, such as substance use and mental health treatment.
Response:
Even in the best of times, jails and prisons are not good at providing health and social services, such as substance use and mental health treatment.
Claim #6: "Reforms for ‘nonviolent offenders’ are fine, but violent offenders need to stay locked up for public safety."
Response:
Research shows people convicted of violent offenses are not inherently violent... (continued)
Response:
Research shows people convicted of violent offenses are not inherently violent... (continued)
Rather, violence is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by a range of factors, some of which diminish with time (such as youth), and others that can be mediated with interventions other than incarceration.
People convicted of violent offenses have among the lowest rates of recidivism, showing that they can succeed in the community. An act of violence represents a single moment in someone’s life, and shouldn’t be the only factor that determines their freedom.
Claim #7: “If you were a victim of crime, you’d want to lock them up and throw away the key."
Response:
Crime victims overwhelmingly support things like investing in mental health & drug treatment, and expanding violence prevention & youth programs, over more incarceration.
Response:
Crime victims overwhelmingly support things like investing in mental health & drug treatment, and expanding violence prevention & youth programs, over more incarceration.
Similarly, many victims believe that incarceration can make people more likely to engage in crime.
Moreover, people convicted of crimes are often victims themselves. Victims and perpetrators aren't two entirely separate categories.
Moreover, people convicted of crimes are often victims themselves. Victims and perpetrators aren't two entirely separate categories.
And if all else fails, it never hurts to pull out this chart.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving!
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