Aaron Chalfin Profile picture
Nov 26 12 tweets 4 min read
How admissions to top universities in the US really works as revealed by a simple comparison between one of NYC's top public high schools (Stuyvesant HS) and one of NYC's top private high schools (Horace Mann School). A short thread with some basic descriptive statistics 👇👇
At @StuyNY, a public magnet school where nearly half of students qualify for NYC's free or reduced price lunch program (<$50K for a family of 4 with NYC cost-of-living), the middle 50% of SAT scores are 1490-1560. See: stuy.enschool.org/ourpages/auto/…
At @HMSchool, a private school where tuition is $60k/year (and where 85% of families pay the full tuition cost), the middle 50% of SAT scores (summing the interquartile ranges for each section) are 1380-1540. See: resources.finalsite.net/images/v163733…
At Stuyvesant HS, the top college destinations are NYU, SUNY Stony Brook, CUNY-Hunter College and SUNY Binghamton. See: tophscollege.blogspot.com/2021/09/stuyve…
At the Horace Mann School, more than 1/3 of students are admitted to an Ivy League university and the top college destinations are Cornell, UChicago, Columbia and Georgetown. See: horacemann.org/alumni/alumni-…
Could some of this be explained to differences in the ability to pay tuition at private colleges? Yes, probably. But consider that nearly all top private colleges are need blind. At Cornell, e.g., the average size of a tuition grant is ~ $43K, 70% of the cost of tuition.
For reference, at SUNY where tuition is $17K, the average tuition grant was $13K. This means that for a qualifying student, Cornell will cost approximately $18K/year and SUNY will cost $4k/year. So the prices are different but not nearly as different as the sticker prices.
The purpose of this thread is not to argue that the SAT exam should be the sole arbiter of college success. But is it right that the Horace Mann students have so much more to offer top colleges than the students who attended public school? Maybe. But not a case I'd want to make.
The comparison is striking. Even among kids who uniformly score in the top 1-3% on national exams, wealthy families have established a unique means to convert merit into admissions success, therefore transmitting this particular type of cultural capital to their children.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with a degree from SUNY and a large share of these public school kids will go on to attend top graduate programs and/or excel in challenging careers. This is not intended to be a plug for 'elite' institutions, just a comment on admissions.
If you believe I have misused any of the figures cited above, please comment here. There is some further nuance but I'm skeptical that there is enough further nuance to substantively change the conclusion that I've offered.
Post-script: Since many have wondered about whether this is driven by applicant preferences: At HM, 35% of the class attends an Ivy League university (+ Chicago, Stanford, MIT). At Stuy, the most recent figure is 18%. Hat tip @UpzoneH

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More from @AaronChalfin

Mar 3
In a field experiment in NYC, residents were provided with mundane information about local police officers. The intervention shifted residents’ perceptions of officers’ knowledge of illegal activity, and may have modestly reduced crime in the short run.👇
nature.com/articles/s4158…
Each residence in a treated area received a mailer including an outreach card and letter about a neighborhood officer describing mundane information about the officer, such as his/her favorite food, hobbies or why they became an officer.
Two months later, residents were asked how likely it is that an officer would know whether s/he did something illegal. The intervention led to a 0.13 standard deviation increase in the average resident’s belief that an officer would find out whether they committed a crime.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
The main narrative about 2020 is that while murder rose, other crime fell. But people stayed inside more, making it hard to infer anything about public safety. In a new paper, Maxim Massenkoff & I study changes in the risk of violence while out in public.👇maximmassenkoff.com/papers/victimi…
We study violent street crimes in the three largest cities in the US. Shortly after the pandemic began, street crimes fell by 30% as the public adjusted to disease risk and lockdowns by spending more time in their homes.
But were the streets actually safer when people ventured outside? Conventional crime rates don't allow us to answer important questions like this. We measure outdoor activity using data from Safegraph, Apple & Google and find that the risk of a street crime initially rose by 40%.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 24
What happens to crime in US cities when police pull back? It depends. When police reduce proactivity for reasons other than a viral incident, most papers don't find a crime increase. But when a pull back accompanies a viral incident, most papers find that crime rises. Citations👇
With respect to pullbacks which are due to dissatisfaction over arbitration agreements, the findings are mixed. See 1) academic.oup.com/aler/article-a… which finds little impact in NYC and 2) academic.oup.com/qje/article-ab… which finds increased crime in NJ.
Pullbacks which occur in the aftermath of or due to the killing of a police officer don't seem to have large public safety impacts, at least in the short-run: 1) static1.squarespace.com/static/58d9a8d… 2) dropbox.com/s/kp5226liyide…
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7
The progressive prosecutor's gamble is that many offenders aren't nearly as motivated as we think they are, that the CJ system further entrenches criminal identity and that a lighter touch could actually enhance public safety. Could that be right? Thread 👇
Going back to Gary Becker (and even further than that), the cost of committing a crime has been seen as a function of the certainty of punishment and the severity of the punishment. Broadly speaking, research supports the idea that certainty deters more than severity.
This is a facile description though because certainty and severity interact. When Pr(punishment) = 0 the severity of sanction literally won't matter. When Pr(punishment) = 1, deterrence is achieved with a light sanction because you know for sure that you'll be caught.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
The University of Chicago Crime Lab is in the market for a new Research Director! This would be an ideal job for someone who will finish their PhD in Spring 2022. As a Crime Lab alumnus, I could not recommend this job more highly. Short thread 👇
urbanlabs.uchicago.edu/attachments/09…
For someone who wants to do research that is tightly linked to policy decisions, this is an incredible opportunity. You will have access to phenomenal data and you will have the opportunity to talk to and learn from high-level policymakers as well as people working on the ground.
You'll have the opportunity to work with a fantastic cast of crime & education researchers who are doing cutting-edge crime research including @NourARazzak, @PankaBencsik, @gregstod and Ashna Arora in addition to the invaluable mentorship of Jens Ludwig and Jon Guryan.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
Do domestic violence shelters keep the victims of family violence safe? @lrschechter has a new paper which studies the impact of opening a shelter where there were none previously. She finds that DV shelters appreciably reduce intimate partner homicides.👇
dropbox.com/s/lqfkv2lx223v…
This is a difficult outcome to study because, at a population level, DV homicides are rare. Lauren is also extraordinarily careful to avoid some pitfalls that arise from using a traditional TWFE model which reduces statistical power.
Nevertheless she detects a large impact of shelters on DV homicides with female victims, finding that the presence of a shelter reduces these particular DV homicides by more than 60%.
Read 7 tweets

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