So yeah, with every year of this war Europe will be getting poorer and poorer. There is a non-zero chance of it becoming destitute, should the war last for long. And it will be 100% self-inflicted. Moreover, it is being self-inflicted right now as Europe continues to arm Russia
Actions have consequences. And arming a malevolent aggressive power next to your borders *does* have consequences. The more you arm it, the more aggressive it becomes, increasing the risk of a war that will impoverish your continent. Fuck around, and find out basically
More importantly, European businesses continue arming Russia right now and (certain) national governments do nothing about it. Well, that's how you get a long war that will eventually impoverish you. The more you arm Russia, the longer the war lasts and the poorer you will end up
Honestly I see a sort of poetic justice in what is happening. The fate of Syrians who were bombed to dust by Russia was indeed unjust and their hardship was not self-inflicted. Syrians did not help to build Russian bombers or produce these bombs and missiles
Last time it was Syria who paid the price for the actions of European manufacturing companies. Now Europe itself will face the consequences of its actions. And even if this price is absurdly small in comparison with what Syria has paid, I still see an element of justice in it
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Well, most of modern Ukraine was either conquered or incorporated to Russia under Catherine II. She was probably the most aggressive ruler of the Russian Empire, not counting Peter I, and spent most of her reign in ambitious wars of expansion in the West and in the South
Age of Catherine is viewed as the Golden Age of the Russian Empire. Wars, conquests, luxury of St Petersburg. That was paid by incredible human misery. Economy-wise reign of Catherine was catastrophic: Catherine led Russia to the greatest economic contraction it had in the 18th c
Russian serfdom was continuously exacerbating since at least the 16th c. In 1600 it can be still characterised as "serfdom". By 1750 it turned into the New World-style plantation slavery: serfs were bought and sold individually at the slave auctions much like Blacks in Americas
Rearmament of the Russian military industry based on the technological import from the West scaled up once Putin took power. Local peaks were reached around 2007 and 2013. Most recent escalation of import started in 2019 and continues till 2022 with the Covid interruption in 2020
This suggests that 2019 is when Russia probably started preparing for this war. The lockdown disruption of the supply chains might have delayed this war, but could not prevent it as in 2021 rearmament resumed again
Why peaks in 2007 and 2013? Well, in 2008 we had a global crisis and in 2014 Russian currency devaluated by half -> import became more expensive. So the rate of rearmament correlates with the general affordability of import. The more import we can afford the more equipment we buy
I think that the USG should explore the possibility of incentivising German, Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Taiwanese, Korean and Spanish companies to shut down their machines on Russian military plants that produce Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander and other cruise and ballistic missiles
I would add Japan and Czechia to the list but in their case I have a reason to believe their national governments are concerned about the role their industry is playing in arming Putin and are looking for ways to stop or minimise that. Still USG could help a lot in their case too
Contrary to the popular belief, Russian capacities for mass production of high precision components do NOT rely on Chinese import, but rather on import + training received from a handful of developed countries located in Western Europe and East Asia
On a highway leading from Chechnya to Dagestan there is a traffic light. It is always red. Every day thousands of cars have to drive through this 24/7 red light to pass from one region to another. This isn't a mistake, but a well-organised system. Look at the arc on the right 🧵
This monumental arc marks a checkpoint leading to the Hosi Yurt (now Akhmat Yurt) - the native village of Kadyrov. Akhmat Yurt is guarded all around its perimeter, much like any of Putin's residences. Only the natives of a village are allowed in
Honestly nowhere in Russia have I seen another place with such a concentrated aura of personal power. Security measures are really impressive: from the armed guard to the radio jammers. You can notice it when your mobile network stops working in a few kilometres from the village
👇When we are talking about a truce or even peace, we should keep in mind that Russia won't be honouring it. Any ceasefire will be used for regrouping, restocking and then attacking again with a better chance of success. Notice that they compare Russian situation to Khasavyurt
First Chechen war 1994-1996 ended with Khasavyurt Accords. Russia withdrew it forces from Chechnya. Independence of Chechnya remained an open question which had to be determined by 2001
Next year, in 1997 Russia signed a peace treaty with Chechnya. President Yeltsin agreed on "rejecting forever the use of force" and "developing relations on the norms of international law". Many viewed it as the de facto recognition of independence
I'd say that is a false dichotomy. Logic may help to do what you do in a more or less efficient way. But *what* you choose to do - this choice is arbitrary. You may pursue your goals in a rational way, yes, but the choice of a goal is irrational. Refusal to choose - also a choice
Still, if we have to compare, most Russians tend to be more pragmatic than most Westerners. So using your term, *more* logical. They're more oriented to pursue earthly, material goals. It's just that the planning horizon is very short, so this behaviour seems to be "irrational"
Example - send your sons to the war, so you can get material benefits. Absolutely rational, pragmatic behaviour with a short planning horizon. They absolutely do count, they just count badly and do not look forward too far. That doesn't mean they're not pragmatic, they are