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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
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Nov 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Rearmament of the Russian military industry based on the technological import from the West scaled up once Putin took power. Local peaks were reached around 2007 and 2013. Most recent escalation of import started in 2019 and continues till 2022 with the Covid interruption in 2020
This suggests that 2019 is when Russia probably started preparing for this war. The lockdown disruption of the supply chains might have delayed this war, but could not prevent it as in 2021 rearmament resumed again
Why peaks in 2007 and 2013? Well, in 2008 we had a global crisis and in 2014 Russian currency devaluated by half -> import became more expensive. So the rate of rearmament correlates with the general affordability of import. The more import we can afford the more equipment we buy
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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 26
You are not wrong. European companies provided Russian military producers that manufacture everything you just described and more with:

- hardware
- software
- training

to do their job. Now Europe will be paying its price for arming a malevolent power next to their borders
So yeah, with every year of this war Europe will be getting poorer and poorer. There is a non-zero chance of it becoming destitute, should the war last for long. And it will be 100% self-inflicted. Moreover, it is being self-inflicted right now as Europe continues to arm Russia
Actions have consequences. And arming a malevolent aggressive power next to your borders *does* have consequences. The more you arm it, the more aggressive it becomes, increasing the risk of a war that will impoverish your continent. Fuck around, and find out basically
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 24
I think that the USG should explore the possibility of incentivising German, Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Taiwanese, Korean and Spanish companies to shut down their machines on Russian military plants that produce Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander and other cruise and ballistic missiles
I would add Japan and Czechia to the list but in their case I have a reason to believe their national governments are concerned about the role their industry is playing in arming Putin and are looking for ways to stop or minimise that. Still USG could help a lot in their case too
Contrary to the popular belief, Russian capacities for mass production of high precision components do NOT rely on Chinese import, but rather on import + training received from a handful of developed countries located in Western Europe and East Asia
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 23
On a highway leading from Chechnya to Dagestan there is a traffic light. It is always red. Every day thousands of cars have to drive through this 24/7 red light to pass from one region to another. This isn't a mistake, but a well-organised system. Look at the arc on the right 🧵 Image
This monumental arc marks a checkpoint leading to the Hosi Yurt (now Akhmat Yurt) - the native village of Kadyrov. Akhmat Yurt is guarded all around its perimeter, much like any of Putin's residences. Only the natives of a village are allowed in Image
Honestly nowhere in Russia have I seen another place with such a concentrated aura of personal power. Security measures are really impressive: from the armed guard to the radio jammers. You can notice it when your mobile network stops working in a few kilometres from the village Image
Read 36 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 21
👇When we are talking about a truce or even peace, we should keep in mind that Russia won't be honouring it. Any ceasefire will be used for regrouping, restocking and then attacking again with a better chance of success. Notice that they compare Russian situation to Khasavyurt
First Chechen war 1994-1996 ended with Khasavyurt Accords. Russia withdrew it forces from Chechnya. Independence of Chechnya remained an open question which had to be determined by 2001 Image
Next year, in 1997 Russia signed a peace treaty with Chechnya. President Yeltsin agreed on "rejecting forever the use of force" and "developing relations on the norms of international law". Many viewed it as the de facto recognition of independence Image
Read 10 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 20
I'd say that is a false dichotomy. Logic may help to do what you do in a more or less efficient way. But *what* you choose to do - this choice is arbitrary. You may pursue your goals in a rational way, yes, but the choice of a goal is irrational. Refusal to choose - also a choice
Still, if we have to compare, most Russians tend to be more pragmatic than most Westerners. So using your term, *more* logical. They're more oriented to pursue earthly, material goals. It's just that the planning horizon is very short, so this behaviour seems to be "irrational"
Example - send your sons to the war, so you can get material benefits. Absolutely rational, pragmatic behaviour with a short planning horizon. They absolutely do count, they just count badly and do not look forward too far. That doesn't mean they're not pragmatic, they are
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 20
Great question. Dumb, but that makes it only better. Short answer: in the recent decades manufacturing digitalised. In 1991 90% machine tools were conventional (mechanical basically). Now most are computer controlled and very software dependent, especially for precision machining
So yr understanding of industrial machines is sorta adequate to how most of them worked 30 years ago. Back then they were kinda autonomous: you buy them and they work. May be you need to buy spare parts, but that’s it. Because they were mechanical. No computer -> no disconnection
Modern machines are different. Computer control. Graphical User Interface. You don’t need to control it with your hands like 30 years ago. You may not even need to code like 15 years ago. You can often pick button on a screen -> I want *this* component design from the online bank
Read 7 tweets

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