Thread by @Kent_Wilson

time for another thread of #NHLFlames drinky thoughts - Quarter season lamentations edition.

Today I'm going with @knobcreek smoked maple bourbon. Simple recipe - a couple of fingers of the good stuff + an ice ball in a glass

20 games in and the Calgary Flames are in a playoff spot, but they aren't hanging around the contender portion of the league, which is disappointing for all involved.

The team has been...good in a handful of ways. They are 4th overall in terms of shot share (CF%). They give up the 7th least amount of shot attempts (CA/60) per game and take the 5th most (CF/60).

More shots for and fewer shots against are classic hallmarks of a Sutter team. But the results have nevertheless been mediocre. Unfortunately for the coach and the GM, none of the orgs stars have performed like it so far.

The chemistry that was abundant amongst the club's skaters last season has been totally absent this year. All of the money players up front - Huberdeau, Mangiapane, Kadri, Lindholm - have struggled to greater or lesser degrees so far.

The top defense pairing of Hanifin and Andersson has also fallen well back of their performance from last year. The entire top end of the Calgary roster looks stuck in neutral.

To top it all off, Markstrom has been miserable relative to pay and expectations. It's been a very rough run for the Flames starter since losing 4-straight to Edmonton in the playoffs.

Through 20 games, Calgary's attack is almost entirely based on will, work, and grind. With the skill portion of the roster stepping on rakes, the offense lacks creativity and danger. Dump in, rim puck, grind in the corner, point shot, is the dominant o-zone sequence.

We can see this in the expected goals component graphs on @EvolvingHockey. The Flames are top-5 in the league in terms of shot rate differential:

But they are 29th when it comes to shot quality differential:

Calgary is also 24th in the league in terms of finishing so far as well. So: we have a team that is taking more shots than their opponents, but it's a lot of low-quality shots. This is probably not a revelation for anyone who has watched them to date.

As a result, Sutter is still casting about for answers when it comes to his roster management. When you see a coach elevating random role players up the rotation, you're usually witnessing a mix of experimentation, message-sending, and plain old frustration.

Before he happened upon the Johnny-Lindholm-Tkachuk trio, Sutter skated Brett Ritchie with Gaudreau and Monahan when he first arrived. Giving role players he likes reps with the stars is something he does while he tries to puzzle things out.

There's good news - the club is still in the thick of things, despite an extremely disappointing start to the season for a huge swath of the club's putative difference makers. The bad news is Sutter needs to find the formula to unlock his stars sooner rather than later.

Contending NHL teams absolutely must have at least one high-end, dominant forward line, full stop. All other slotting decisions generally flow from there. Until the coaching staff can find a combination that unlocks Huberdeau et al, things will continue to be a grind.

The goaltending also needs to be sorted. Markstrom's a Vezina finalist, but he looks like a guy with the yips. Sutter has deep trust in established starting goalies, so expect him to continue to go back to Markstrom over Vladar.

That said, dominant teams also need at least average goaltending. No one survives sub-.900 netminding long-term. Markstrom's a good bet to regress back to his career norms, but the club can't wait forever.

I noted a few weeks ago that fans and management in Calgary are getting anxious because the org can't afford to be a middle-class club this year. They've pushed all in w/ the Tkachuk for Huberdeau trade. scrabbling around in a wild card spot by the trade deadline is a failure.

Reference: bigbodypresence.substack.com/p/sweaty-palms…

There are lots of games left and we know almost all of the players mentioned can - and have been - much better. Whatever malaise afflicts them currently renders the team a rather uncompelling outfit to cheer for currently. Let's see if they can turn it around.