Ryan Selkis (d/acc) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Profile picture
Nov 28, 2022 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read โ€ข Read on X
1/ No, DCG and Genesis can't "dump" GBTC. That's part of their liquidity crisis, but also net good news for GBTC shareholders and FUD fighting.

Why?

In public markets there are rules! ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/ DCG bought nearly $800mm worth of GBTC shares since the premium flipped to a discount in early 2021.

DCG's board authorized up to $1.2bn of share purchases across Grayscale Trusts.

In light of the current liquidity issues, the remainder is likely on hold indefinitely.
3/ This is especially true since DCG/Genesis took possession of *35 million shares* or 5% of the GBTC trust as part of 3AC's liquidated collateral in Q2.

DCG and affiliates now own 10% of the trust shares, but these are highly illiquid.
4/ Why?

Grayscale is not a true "ETF" it's a publicly listed vehicle under something called Rule 144.

Two major affiliate selling restrictions under 144:
+ Notice of Proposed Sales (would spook the market)
+ Cap on sales of 1% of outstanding shares or weekly trading volume. ImageImage
5/ Given GBTC has a daily volume of ~4.5mm shares that works out to quarterly cap on sales of 2.5mm shares ($23mm / quarter) under the trading test and 6.9mm shares ($62mm / quarter) under the asset test.

The 1% rule is the "greater of the two", BUT...
6/ Since max allowable sales under the 1% test would be 3% of daily volume dumped on the offer side of the book, forced selling by DCG-Genesis would further depress prices AND telegraph sales to the market.

It's *much* more likely DCG-Genesis refinance using GBTC as collateral.

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More from @twobitidiot

Aug 1
1/ The reason the election of Kamala Harris would legitimately be the end of the country has nothing to do with her as a person. (If I'm being honest, I would definitely have seven IPAs to her seven glasses of wine, and we'd probably hit it off.)

It's much darker than that.
2/ You have to look at the coordinated information war that has taken place in the past six weeks: the players, the sequence of events, and the outcomes.

If I were part of the "Deep State" or whoever the hell is running the country right now, I would be flexing my muscles...
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At the same time, the White House, Congress, Media, and others were covering up Biden's dementia.
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May 20
1/ The FIT21 vote this week will be a big one in DC:

+ We'll see if crypto remains a partisan football
+ It's a legacy defining moment for @RepMaxineWaters
+ Waters vote will likely make or break @hakeemjeffries chance at Speaker of the House for the next Congress.

Why?

๐Ÿงต
2/ There's three things you should know about the political dynamics of this vote. I'll unpack them all.

1. SBF embarrassed the Democrats and Waters
2. As Waters goes, so goes the Dem conference
3. Liz Warren's SAB 121 rebuke opens the door for a potential landslide FIT21 win.
3/ First, the SBF picture.

Yes, THAT one.

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Sam screwed it up. Image
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May 7
1/ The philosophical intersection of crypto and American politics.

๐Ÿงต
2/ My view of crypto, and my advocacy and decade-long building in the space, has always been political.

I think some people forget our political roots simply because Libertarians have declined to a minority of industry participants.

But those roots are deep.
3/ They go beyond "sound money" ethos.

Whether you're talking about BTC, smart contracts, DAOs, or even USD stablecoins / RWAs, crypto enshrines Constitutional values into financial code.

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Mar 3
1/ There have really only been two things that have ever pulled crypto into new bull markets: ETF hype, and new pockets of speculative bubbles.

The reason things are moving faster this year, is that we have both at our backs.

๐Ÿงต
2/ Aside from its impact as a meme, the 21 million bitcoin hard cap has been irrelevant since the first or second halving.

The real driver of the 2013 bubble was the intro of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust.

It launched in Sept, and for the next 60 days bitcoin went vertical.
3/ The 2014-2016 bear market was brutal. Many companies almost died. Bitcoin's future was uncertain. The ascent back was torturous.

Then in early 2017, ICOs were born.
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Feb 15
1/ When Gary Gensler says crypto โ€œis just an accounting ledgerโ€ he tells on himself as being oblivious to history.

Here's a story that combines why Gensler is an idiot, how crypto is transformative, and the history of Messari all in one.

My three favorite things!

๐Ÿ‘‡
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In short, no accounting, no civilization beyond tribes.

And no double entry accounting, no capitalism.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_oโ€ฆ
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I'll skip to the "merchants of Venice" who birthed capitalism.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
A close friend of mine (who is liberal) asked me today: โ€œI understand the support for Vivek, but how can you swing over to Trump overnight?โ€

I compared Trump to an entrepreneur and comedian, but not in the way that you are thinking.

๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ
For starters, Trump was right about a LOT of issues. Immigration, NATO, tax reform, China. Just askโ€ฆJamie Dimon:

But the big issue that always comes up is โ€œbut Trump is a jerk / dictator / insurrectionist. Democracy is at stake.โ€

If you think J6 was a literal insurrection, the conversation usually stops there. The guy with the horn helmet and face paint did not almost halt democracy.
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