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Alex Armlovich Profile picture
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Nov 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Worldview-destabilizing things you don't learn til you're older:

-Reagan didn't deregulate much outside finance

-Carter did all the big transport deregulation (CAB, ICC rail & trucking)

-New Jersey is good, actually. Many great cities--and beautiful, wide open natural spaces
You don't have to believe me on face -- I wouldn't have either.

Look into them yourself! It's part of growing up.

"They got Dinkins the same way they got Jimmy Carter" is an obscure sentence, but if you understand it, you understand partisan political communication in America
Both launched the ideas their successors claimed credit for via conservative media narrative control

-Dinkins hired Bratton, Giuliani's NYPD commissioner; murders began declining before Giuliani

-Carter did the good deregulation, Reagan got famous for it
Old threads on Carter here👇

Carter hired Volcker, like Dinkins hired Bratton!

Carter did ICC, CAB, & ended Prohibition-era controls on entry into brewing. Microbreweries were illegal before Carter!

But it all gets credited to Reagan in the branding

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More from @aarmlovi

Alex Armlovich Profile picture
Nov 25
Amtrak's high-cost, bloated operating model consistently underperforms private, for-profit buses all over the US

Even on NEC, Megabus NYC->PHL is $7 to $15...you will never see those prices on Amtrak despite billions in public operating support

Even NJT->SEPTA is $35
I love Amtrak but it's a thoughtful love--I see their potential, but I won't pretend they do a good job

It's no longer low budget either--IIJA gives them $66 billion, but they're planning more of the same old low-frequency, low-speed high price garbage 🤷‍♂️
Read 6 tweets
Alex Armlovich Profile picture
Oct 12
Monetary policy is the same in a pre-2008 "scarce reserves" corridor system vs. today's "abundant reserves" floor system

But the narrative difference is huge!

When the Fed operated by creating & destroying reserves pre-2008, the narrative link to the quantity of money was clear
Today, many don't believe the Fed controls money supply. They think setting the floor rate in an abundant reserves system is barely relevant to the price level

Yet the actual policy is no different from pre-2008 when the Fed controlled rates by creating or destroying base money!
My account used to dabble in macro Twitter in addition to transit and housing/urban econ Twitter...

Those days are largely over but you can read the BIS survey on the change in monetary policy operating procedures here if anyone on the TL is interested: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_….
Read 4 tweets
Alex Armlovich Profile picture
Jul 20
Classic American urban neighborhoods are the scarcest, most in-demand, most expensive places to live.

But I admit--I am puzzled why more people don't move to Chicago Image
This would be a great dataviz. To be definitively convincing that the racism/crime/services/jobs problems aren't decisive, need to show that the South/West side neighborhoods *on the L* are also repopulating in this same pattern
Another interesting entrant: The inter-regional urban gravity equation pulling Americans towards coastal population megaclusters

An inversion of 19th Century US economic geography from when the Great Lakes & rivers were the only "interstate highway system" Image
Read 5 tweets
Alex Armlovich Profile picture
Sep 23, 2021
Well-targeted congestion pricing is part of a special class of "externality" taxes that, by burdening an undesirable thing, offsets the drag on desirable economic activity that would otherwise occur if the same revenue were raised with an ordinary tax
Partnership for NYC estimates the tristate area suffers ~$20 billion travel times losses every year—a “time tax” that does not yield usable revenue. Congestion pricing will convert a substantial share of that un-spendable “time tax” into a spendable $1 billion for MTA capital
This unique property of congestion tolling is why more than 95% of professional economists support congestion tolling: It is the closest thing in public finance to alchemy, turning lead into gold: Turning “time taxes” into usable revenue
igmchicago.org/surveys/conges…
Read 5 tweets

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