When it comes to ballot harvesting, Pennsylvania’s Delaware County is not only the undisputed leader in Pennsylvania but possibly the nation. Let me explain. 🧵(1/32) Image
Here are charts graphing each of Pennsylvania’s daily Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications and Returns for the 2022 Midterm. You can see all 67 counties here. (2/32) drive.google.com/file/d/1N9Jygw…
This is what a Democratic Mail-In Ballot Application and Return cycle looks like for a typical Pennsylvania county. Almost every county, including Philadelphia and Allegheny, looks like this. (3/32) Image
Nearly 2/3’s of all Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications happen in the Spring. That’s because counties are statutorily required to mail the prior year’s Mail-In Ballot Applicants if they wish to re-enroll for the current year. (4/32)
Essentially, Democratic campaigns “chase” those county mailers with digital ads, texts, robocalls or even their own mailer to get Democratic voters to re-enroll for a Mail-In Ballot. (5/32)
Democratic campaigns leverage taxpayer-funded mailers to do most of their ballot harvesting and save money. Smart! (6/32)
The remaining 1/3 of Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications happen in late Fall when campaign activity is at a fever-pitch...much of it organic. (7/32)
While some Fall prospecting happens, Democratic harvesting efforts tend to pump the breaks by late September because +15% of Democrats don’t return ballots. It often becomes an uncast vote. (8/32)
One would assume that the Dobbs abortion decision, released in late June 2022, would have led to a summer surge in Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications. (9/32)
The Democrats thought so, too. So much so that left-leaning organizations began mailing female democrats under the age of 40 across Pennsylvania who hadn’t voted in a decade, asking them to apply for a Mail-In Ballot. (10/32)
Shockingly, the Dobbs Summer Surge never came. The summer was dead for Democratic ballot harvesters, even in Pittsburgh and Philly. Make no mistake, @JohnFetterman and @JoshShapiroPA had the resources to do it. (11/32) ImageImage
Likewise, the summer surge never came in Montgomery County, which home to the Democratic suburban base. (12/32) Image
However, the Dobbs Summer Surge did happen in one place: Delaware County. (13/32) Image
How anomalous was Delaware County? If you break 2022 into Pre-Dobbs, Dobbs Summer, and Fall, Delaware County Democrats got MOST of their Mail-In Applications during the summer which is when the other 66 counties got THE FEWEST. (14/32)
What did the Delaware County democrats do? Let’s start with what they didn’t do. (15/32)
Ballot harvesting in Pennsylvania is hard because the ballot harvester must have a voter’s Social Security or Driver’s License number. Here’s the application. (16/32) Image
County Boards of Elections are required to verify the Social Security or Driver’s License number on each application. (17/32)
Fraudulent ballot harvesting can happen at two points: the harvester illegally obtains a list of Social Security or Driver’s Licenses numbers to complete applications without a voter’s knowledge, or, Board of Elections workers conspire to not validate applications. (18/32)
There is NO evidence of either happening at-scale in Delaware County. So, how were Democratic ballots harvested in Delaware County this summer? (19/32)
Competitive State House races saw the largest surge in Mail-In Ballot applicants, meaning candidates and their volunteers/paid canvassers carried the Mail-In Ballot Applications with them while door-knocking. (20/32)
The Mail-In Ballot Summer Application Surge was spread across Delaware County. Furthermore, fewer than 10% failed to return their ballot, which is significantly better than the statewide average. Delaware County Dems chased those applicants, hard. (21/32)
Delaware County Democrats defied political gravity through elbow grease by working a plan. Republicans need to do the same. (22/32)
Republicans need to treat Mail-In Ballots just like voter registration, where the GOP has excelled in Pennsylvania for the past decade. Wherever GOP voters are registered is where they should be solicited for a Mail-In Ballot. (23/32)
In a few weeks, a little over 300,000 Republicans will receive an application from their county Board of Elections to re-enroll in Mail-In voting. That’s over a quarter million GOP voters who understand the process. (24/32)
These are the low-hanging fruit. The GOP needs a program to chase those applications via digital ads, texts and robocalls…just like the Democrats do. And, knock on doors. (25/32)
After that, the GOP targeting must expand to re-enrolling 2020 GOP Vote-By-Mail applicants. (26/32)
Then, the GOP needs an education campaign detailing to GOP voters that there is a greater chance of getting struck by lightning than having your Mail-In Ballot uncounted. (27/32)
Put it this way…over 80% of PA’s counties are GOP-run and have no interest in disenfranchising republicans. In the 20% of counties run by Dems, the Dems in-charge have no interest in bouncing GOP ballots because it imperils Dem ballots which tend to be more flawed. (28/32)
Mail-In Ballot education and enrollment must be the PA Republican project for 2023, and, build upon it for 2024. Anything else is noise. (29/32)
Before Mail-In Ballots existed, the GOP dominated Absentee Ballots. Republicans know how to do this. Just have to dust-off the old playbook. (30/32)
Truth be told, Pennsylvania’s Democrats aren’t that great at ballot harvesting. If they are good at it, the hide it really well! In Florida, Republicans absolutely crush Mail-In Ballots. (31/32) tampabay.com/news/florida-p…
Republicans can start winning again by getting back to basics. If you would like to help, follow me on Twitter and sign up here. (32/32) docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

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More from @Athan_K

Jan 24
Did you know that Pennsylvania has an "Election Law Advisory Board"? Don't worry...neither did anybody else. Today, they released some Mail-In Ballot recommendations that are worth your time... (1/6)
The PA Election Law Advisory Board recommends abolishing the Secrecy Envelope requirement. (2/6)
The PA Election Law Advisory Board recommends that the failure to date a Mail-In Ballot should not be the sole grounds for ballot disqualification. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Dec 25, 2022
246 years ago today, 2,400 Americans crossed an icy Delaware River during a Nor’easter, then marched…many of the shoeless…10 miles in the middle of the night to hand the largest Army in the world their first loss on colonial soil. (1/4)
The Battle of Trenton, which was George Washington’s 1st win after months of retreats and losses, served as the turning point of the Revolutionary War where foreign powers thought the colonials might have a chance to win. (2/4)
As I am blessed to watch my family open Christmas presents in the comfort and warmth of my home in Bucks County this morning, just minutes from where these heroes launched their attack, I remain in awe of their bravery and sacrifice. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
It appears the GOP may have 350,000 more voters turnout than projected while the DEMS may fall 200,000+ voters short of projections. That’s a net-shift of 550,000 voters in favor of Republicans. Let me explain… (1/29)
Let’s start with the GOP. Experts projected about 1,000,000 republicans would vote in the ’22 Primary. They reached that number by presuming any republican who voted in 2 of the last 4 primaries would vote in the 2022 Primary. (2/29)
1,000,000 voters is an incredibly large number for a Midterm Primary. By comparison, about 825,000 republicans voted in the Red Wave ’10 Primary. (3/29)
Read 29 tweets
Sep 1, 2022
Mark Zuckerberg revealed in his @joerogan interview that extreme polarization is unique to the United States. I know what caused polarization and how to end it. With @JoeBiden and @GOPLeader coming to PA to give speeches about it, let’s talk about it…🧵
In countries with equal or more social media usage, Zuckerberg explains polarization is nowhere near the level we see in America. With 3B+ Meta users, which is nearly half of Earth’s population, let’s take him at his word.
Obviously, Zuckerberg is deflecting that social media does not cause polarization. But just because he’s self-interested, it doesn’t make him wrong.
Read 77 tweets
Aug 30, 2022
"The good book holds reasons I believe the way I do.
And all I needed to know I was taught in Sunday school.
But I live like those rules were for everyone but me.
With selfish disregard for how it hurt my family.
As I staggered down the hall to our bed.
She helped steady me and said:
How can you think like you think and
Turn around and drink like you drink?
You can barely stand up when you kneel down to pray.
How can you tell our children to be strong
And fight temptation in world gone wrong?
How can you think like you think and drink like you drink?
Bless that girl that looks out for me.
With the faith and love of a saint.
Give me the strength to make sure that she never again has to say.
How can you think like you think
Turn around and drink like you drink?
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17, 2022
Where did all of the workers go? A PA state agency released a provocative & underreported theory last week. Homeschooling is taking a parent out of the workforce, while Boomers are paying their kids to care for them outside of a nursing home...🧵
The PA IFO found that both nursing homes/residential care & public schools have seen a dramatic drop in employment. Realizing that PA isn't getting any younger and school enrollment isn't shrinking substantially, they kept digging.
They found that homeschool enrollment almost doubled while traditional school enrollment shrank.
Read 14 tweets

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