Thread by @FootbalIEcon

TFC MD3 Selection 🏆

Breaking down my picks for the final group stage game of the TFC Rookie World Cup competition ⚽️

#TFC

This is by far the toughest MD of the tournament, with 2 additional factors that weren't so significant in the previous matchdays.

Rotation - with the third group game in quick succession, players will be rotated more than before.

The main reasons for rotation in MD3 will be resting, testing or tactical changes.

I’ve chosen to be aggressive with my picks, and not be too heavily concerned with rotation as the best assets for smaller reams are so hard to pick and top players can score from the bench.

Motivation - it’s closely related to rotation, but you have to consider the approach of players/teams who DO start.

Do they need points? Goal difference? Will they be subbed off? What has the opponent got to play for?

Knowing your player will start is great, but if the team are sat back and he comes off at HT, how good was the start?

Similarly to past MDs, I focused on splitting fixtures into offensive, defensive and neutral, using betting odds.

Offensive Standouts - NET, GER, MEX, BRA, SPA
Defensive Standouts - ENG, ARG, FRA, DEN

Defence

• Schmeichel

With the strong Danish defence I did not want to consider an attacker, however, their backline is a little uncertain.

Kjaer missed last game with an injury issue, while both Kristensen and Christensen are on 1 YC, meaning they could be removed early..

..on should they be leading the game. As a safer entry point, I went for Schmeichel.

• Maguire

While the Welsh backline is leaky, the anticipated rotation of the England attack, as well as the strength of their defence, pushed me to select a defender.
Maguire has been on great form, scoring well and is unlikely to be dropped.

He progresses the ball well and is the primary target from set pieces. He also has a strong relationship with Shaw at left back.

• Lisandro

Argentina looked way better with Martinez vMexico than Romero vSaudiArabia. I expect him to start vPoland, who have had just 36% and 39% possession in their first two group games. While not an easy fixture, Martinez should see a lot of the ball, and if they...

..can hold onto the CS, I expect a solid score.

• Marquinhos

Similiar to England, the Brazilian attack looks too uncertain in MD3 for me to select a forward. Also, with Neymar out, it’s tricky to single out any one player who is likely to dominate the game.

I hope Marquinnhos will start, with any rest being given to Silva.

Cameroon have had limited possession in both games, and Brazil should dominate the ball here. The only concern is that Cameroon do have threatening attackers.

Midfield:

• Olmo

A really cheap option at 67, Olmo offers an entry into the Spain attack vJapan. Although he's not certain to start, the winner of this game tops the group and we've seen what japan can do against strong sides, so it seems Spain shouldn't rotate too heavily.

He also offers a pressing intensity yielding blocks and tackles that his competitors do not.

• Bruno

Picking a player on a hot streak, Bruno has 2G2A in two games, is directly involved in 80% of Portugal’s goals and playing the weakest side in the group.

Portugal tops the group with a draw, and he’s on 1 yellow which makes him a serious rotation concern, but he has the engine to play games close together and is very important to the side. Fingers crossed.

• Sane

Germany need a win and are heavy favourites against Costa Rica. You need a German attacker for this slate, the main question is who.
Sane should be the first choice, but an injury issue had him out in MD1. If he’s fully fit I expect him to start in this important game.

• Lozano

Saudi Arabia have shown themselves to be a solid side, but the bookies still make Mexico a strong favourite here. With their striker options, Lozano feels like the safest offensive option in the team, as well as being one of their star players.

Attack:

• Memphis

Probably the easiest pick on the slate, Depay is very underpriced due to his injury issues but should be fit and we are told hes expected to start.
At 71 hes a bargain and vQatar you have to expect he will get the chances, as well as pen/FK opportunities.

• Mbappe

Bit of a risk here but all the info currently says Mbappe should start. I’m unsure but feel that almost anyone in the France side could be rotated, so picking the player who is most likely to score well off the bench seems viable.

It could be a lot on a bench player but this budget was kinda generous since there are rotation worries making the premiums less interesting.

• Darwin

Finally, Darwin Nunez has not impressed in this WC, however, they have a must-win game vGhana who have conceded 5 in 2.

This draws back the motivation side, where a draw puts Ghana through and a win for either put themselves through, so Uruguay have to be proactive and aggressive.

This is a tough slate with the added factors playing a major role.

Expect lower scoring and don't panic too much if a player doesn't start. GL.