Ben Rabidoux Profile picture
Nov 30 11 tweets 3 min read
The recent undercover work by @cbcmarketplace to expose mortgage fraud in Canada raised questions around how these bad actors were able to operate so brazenly. Now a new audit of @RECOhelps raises further doubts that self-governance is working. 1/ cbc.ca/news/marketpla…
Some takeaways from the incredibly scathing Auditor General's report:

auditor.on.ca/en/content/ann…

2/
Re spot audits:

"RECO has never performed a full
on-site inspection at 27% of registered brokerages, and
has not conducted a full on-site inspection at a further
35% of brokerages in more than five years."

3/
Re the adequacy of fines as deterrents:

" we found that 67% of registrants were
fined a lower amount than the commission earned
in the related real estate transaction."

4/
SO ANNOYING....lost the last 6 tweets on this thread. Will try to repost
Re screening for criminals:

"RECO does not have a formal policy, guide-
lines or a consistent process to assess whether
to refuse to register applicants who have a
criminal history."

HO...LEE....SHITE!

5/
Re fraud/lack of controls in qualification exams:

"...major breach in the integrity of exams
offered...RECO has not
taken steps to independently verify whether the
issues that led to the breaches have been satisfactorily addressed."

6/
Re inspection of brokerages

"RECO does not review and monitor whether
inspections of brokerages are carried out
consistently and effectively"

"proportion of inspections that identify instances of non-compliance...as high as 82%"

BUT... "rarely follows up"

7/
Re money laundering:

"FINTRAC received zero reports of large cash
transactions between the 2017/18 and 2020/21
fiscal years, and just 18 reports of large cash
transactions in 2021/22, from real estate brokers
and salespersons."

8/
Re conflicts of interest

"Although RECO’s role is to protect consumers,
its Board is composed mainly of real estate
industry representatives. At the time of our
audit, only two of the 12 directors on RECO’s
Board were not registered members of the real
estate industry."

9/
End there. Just a crazy report. Governance of the real estate industry is even worse than I thought.

Industry is in serious need of a real regulator.

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More from @BenRabidoux

Aug 23
Thoughts on trigger rates.

Variable rate mortgages have surged in popularity, accounting for over half of new originations in the past year and now represent 1/3 of all outstanding mortgage debt.

BUT, up to 80% of those variable rate mortgages still have static payments

1/ Image
Static payment mortgages work by adjusting the share of the payment that is applied to principal. Canada does not allow for negative amortization, so once interest expenses consumer the entire payment, it "triggers" a payment reset.

2/
How many mortgages are at risk of reset? It's substantial. Over $260B worth of variable rate mortgages (15% of total outstanding) were originated between Mar 2021 and Feb 2022 at an avg rate of 1.58%.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 13
THREAD: According to new data from the @bankofcanada, a major source of incremental housing demand in Canada has come from "investors"....loosely defined by the BoC as buyers who already own at least one other property. 1/
The share is likely even higher. From the BoC's own footnotes. 2/
One major hurdle to entry into the market for new buyers in expensive cities is saving for a down payment. According to estimates from @UBC, based on the cost of houses in Ontario, it would take prospective buyers up to 28 years on average to save up a 20% down payment. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 28
THREAD: House prices in Toronto have been increasing on average by nearly 4% per MONTH for the past 6 months. Bidding wars have been so insane that to win, you basically have to bid 10-15% (or more) above any recent comparable. 1/
This would normally cause issues with appraisals but with prices rising so quickly, buyers just push back the appraisal as close to the closing date as possible and let the comparables "catch up" to the sale price. 2/
This works in a hot market with accelerating prices, but things are changing at the margins in Toronto, which I think will be clear in the latest data.

What that means is that people who bought recently at prices way above comps may have issues with appraisals going forward 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
SUPER THREAD-
Crazy Canadian home sales

Kicking it off, from @REWoman, a $1,000,000 or 120% gain in 1 year in Whitby. Some reno work done, but damn!

Solid 50% gain in 1 year in Stouffville

Read 20 tweets
Jun 16, 2021
I don't get the people arguing that we don't have a housing supply issue in Canada. Look, I'm very VERY sympathetic to the idea that we have a real problem with speculation, money laundering, and illicit capital flows which are artificially goosing demand. BUT.... 1/
...Think of Canadian housing right now as a low float stock where incremental demand has massive effect on marginal pricing. How low stock? By my math, active MLS listings hit a fresh 20-yr low last month across the country. 2/
It's really important to understand that this is not new. We had multi-decade lows in inventory heading into COVID that was exacerbated by a sudden shift in preferences towards single-family houses (SFH) where we've unquestionably been under-building. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 15, 2021
Thread on Cdn immigration policy. Obligatory recognition that yes, we need strong immigration based on trends in natural increase. But still, I really dislike that we can't have a discussion around aspects of immigration policy without being side-eyed by all the wokesters. 1/
I contend that allowing population growth to run up to nearly 600k y/y in 2019 primarily due to surge in non-permanent residents (mostly international students) without an accompanying buy-in from municipalities on how to accommodate that growth was an enormous policy failure. 2/
This led to a dramatic tightening in rental market, forced some renters into ownership pool due to changing economics on rentals, drew speculation that tightened resale supply. Compounded by inability (or unwillingness) of municipalities to permit enough to meet this demand. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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