The thing to understand about the Hunter Biden laptop story was that it was SUPPOSED to be the Trump campaign’s “October Surprise.”

Mainstream media and social media were supposed to take the bait and focus on the appearance of scandal for the last weeks of the election.
(1/x)
They didn’t take the bait. The New York Post story was shunned. Social media platforms treated it as manufactured propaganda with questionable sourcing.

And conservative elites have been PISSED ever since.
(2/x)
They’re supposed to be these brilliant media manipulators.

Roger Stone and Steve Bannon and the rest of the Pepe Patrol pretend at being these incredibly sophisticated actors, injecting precision memes to bend the public will.

But they’re actual just blunt instruments. (3/x)
Trump got impeached the first time for trying to condition congressionally-approved military aid to Ukraine on Zelenskyy announcing an “investigation” of Biden corruption.

He wanted the appearance of corruption, so he could wrap the media’s attention around it.
(4/x)
The laptop was basically Plan B.

They wanted everyone to freak out about it for a few weeks. Normally what happens is conservative media shouts about it, mainstream media genuflects and “covers the controversy,” and Bannon and co high-five each other for setting the agenda. (5)
It didn’t work this time. They’ve been pouting ever since.

It’s a lot like a kid who loses a video game and starts slamming the controller, insisting it’s rigged or the system is cheating.

It’s NOT FAIR! Their plan was supposed to WORK! (6/x)
Musk and Taibbi are tapping into that well of resentment.

Why should we care about the President’s adult failson who doesn’t work in the administration? Two years later, what’s the scandal supposed to even be?

The media didn’t take the bait. No fair. That’s the scandal. (7/x)
They’re gonna keep bitching about it for years. It’s going to be louder and emptier than the Benghazi hearings.

The scandal is that their clever propaganda effort sank like a lead balloon. And that has to be SOMEONE ELSE’S fault.

That’s it. That’s the whole thing.
(Fin)

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More from @davekarpf

Dec 3
An early thought on the ChatGPT hype:

I keep people hearing this will upend higher education — “No more take home essays ever,” etc.

I think that’s obviously wrong.

What this *will* upend is the underground market for cheating on tests.
ChatGPT is at or very close to the writing level of an average undergrad pulling an all-nighter to complete an essay on readings they only skimmed.

Plagiarism detection software isn’t going to catch this stuff. That’s a real problem.
To state the obvious: this is worse for the student than for the professor.

A generative AI engine could write all your short-response essays for you and earn you a B while you learn nothing from the class.

Why take that class if you didn’t intend to learn from it?
Read 8 tweets
Nov 17
One thing I’m genuinely flummoxed by concerning Elon’s “everyone be hardcore” ultimatum:

Why would an engineer be working at Twitter if they wanted to live the startup lifestyle?

(Thread)
One of my all-time favorite @WIRED articles is “no exit,” by Gideon Lewis-Kraus.

It’s the best portrait I’ve seen of the insane hours/stress/risk in startup culture. He compares it to the more sane lifestyle of tech workers at big, established firms.

wired.com/2014/04/no-exi…
Just one year ago, we were at the height of the “web3” boom.

Engineers were bailing on big tech firms to launch blockchain startups.

If you had any taste for the startup lifestyle, 2021 was when you’d shoot your shot.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 15
I'll be writing something longform on this topic later this week, but this is a legitimately big deal and shouldn't get lost as everyone gawks at the ongoing social media car crash.
A major lesson from the past 5-10 years is that the social media platforms cannot responsibly monitor themselves. The incentives are all wrong.

If our knowledge of platform effects and behavior are limited to what the platforms selectively share, it's always gonna go bad.
I don't know what replaces Twitter after Elon burns it down.

I think we're entering a new era of social media.

Support for independent tech research needs to get built into the foundations of that new era.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
This Election Day is a test.

For 50 years, extreme conservative jurists dreamed of overturning Roe v Wade. For 50 years, they worried that there would be electoral consequences.

They've determined the electorate doesn't care. About rights, about policy, about anything.
(...)
If they're proven right -- if this midterm election goes the way midterm elections of this sort usually go (President's party loses a lot of seats) -- then the conservative Supreme Court takes a dangerous lesson to heart.
It means they can legislate from the bench with impunity. They don't need to worry about their legitimacy, or rule of law. There's no attentive public to impose a cost on their actions.

The same goes for elected Republicans. They believe there is no check on their worst behavior
Read 8 tweets
Nov 6
Some predictions for week 2 of Elon-Twitter:

-the new Twitter Blue rollout will be a disaster. Signups will be meager (Only QAnons, Elon fanboys will, and reporters who work at @theinformation).

It’s going to turn out there was no demand for verification among the user base.
-the new verification system is going to be treated as an attack surface by spammers and scammers.

There will be at least 2-3 high-profile events — impersonations, hacks, viral misinformation stories — that become the focus of reporting.
Having fired basically the entire comms team last week, Twitter will be flat-footed in containing the damage of these stories.

It’ll also have a tough time handling the technical attacks, bc it laid off too many engineers too.

Elon will just keep tweeting through it.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 5
What I like(d) about Twitter, and what I’ll look for from whatever comes next:

I joined Twitter in 08 or 09. The thing that mattered in those early days was that ties were unidirectional (following), not bidirectional (friending).

(1/x)
I was a grad student at that point. What Twitter was really good for was that I could follow the authors who impressed me.

Twitter became a curated news and discussion feed. I could read the links they posted, to their own work and to work that impressed them.
(2/x)
You couldn’t do that on other social networks.

The essence of Facebook is a self-updating Rolodex. Ties go in both directions.

The essence of Twitter is a self-curated news and conversational space. Ties go in one direction.

(3/x)
Read 11 tweets

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