Thread by @gauravsabnis

It's simple science really.

The more you post #BJPwillLose, the more likely it is that people read BJP will lose. The more people read #BJPwillLose, the more likely it is that people vote in a way that increases the chances a bit that #BJPwillLose. All we can do is try our best.

Remember that in 2010, BJP was considered a spent force and Modi a ridiculous long shot for PM. It is literally with constant repetition of the "Modi Modi Modi" chants in news studios, constant "ab ki baar" constant "Gujarat Model" barrage on social media that started the thing.

When Trump first unveiled his MAGA slogan, for months people snickered cos they remembered he just copied it from Reagan. But constant repetition and I doubt anyone other than political nerds will know that Trump didn't coin it.

Trump is big on the power of repetition

See this "works" thing depends on how you define "works". If you have a random sports coach approach to elections that win means works loss means doesn't work, that's an unnecessarily binary view of a continuous variable - number of votes. It's different.

https://twitter.com/apurvasays/status/1599338329614737409?t=QQvfTr66alV5eQYkQUhRIA&s=19

Even if we are obsessed with covering elections like they are sports contests, they are just counting of people's preference. Millions of them. That's why even the smallest thing actually "works". Smallest efforts then add up and decide elections. Hopefully. Sometimes.

BJP got where it did by intense grassroots campaigning. Literally at the page level. They have "Panna Pramukhs" who are in charge of one page each of the voter rolls that has 60 names. Their goal is to just get 24 votes out of those. Not all, not even half. Just 24.

These Panna Pramukhs are your neighbors. Literally every Indian voter where RSS is active has a Panna Pramukh. Why the resident association Whatsapp groups have suddenly become so active and are generally full of sanghi propaganda. It's the Panna Pramukh behind it.

The Ram Mandir "donation" campaign was not really for money. Adani Ambani have enough money to build a million grand temples.

It was for data collection. After asking you for ram mandir donations, they update their database. Are you reliably saffron for now? Good.

Anyone who happily donated was marked a safe vote. Those extra enthusiastic were added to other sanghi groups in the area. Are often forwarded stuff to forward on.

Those who are clearly anti sangh are marked as such. We've seen how that data is used many times.

It's those in the middle, the "Vikas" crowd, the ones who aren't necessarily Modi fans but don't like the Congress or left too much either that are worked on. Typically by a friendly uncle type neighbor. "if not him then who" is the message constantly hammered on Whatsapp.

Working on those continuously, not just before elections, is key to getting 24 votes out of 60.

40% vote share in India generally translates to a thumping majority in seats, given the multi party system. They literally break it down into 60 voters. Like ants working together.

Sangh runs this grassroots model in a top down way cos they have a century old social infrastructure. It wasn't very effective for decades. Most people avoided their neighborhood sangh pracharak. But then social media, especially Whatsapp, changed the game. Can't be avoided.

Now you can't really politely avoid the sanghi like you used to. They can send you messages. Add you to groups that are ostensibly about community stuff like RWA operations or neighborhood security or even just a building cricket group.

That made BJP super powerful.

It is also through constant repetition on Whatsapp and on purchased media that BJP turned a country where we routinely bashed & ridiculed Vajpayee-Manmohan without anyone ever telling us that to do so was anti-national, to where things stand today. Anti-BJP = anti-national.

Criticisms of security failures under Vajpayee or Manmohan were always understood to be criticisms of the leadership, the policy, not an "attack on the military". Be it Kargil or Mumbai, questioning failures was never equated with insulting soldiers. But that's what it is now.

Please understand the they said all this through a lot of small actions. Actions that by themselves might have seemed futile in 2010 or even 2012. But they didn't think binary. They thought additive. Cos elections are basically additive. Not about "winning" in the sports way.

Look at how hopping mad sanghis are that we made #BJPwillLoseGujarat and #BJPwillLose trend so easily. Without even any click farms or pay per tweet apps. Cos they know this is exactly what "works". It all starts on Twitter and Whatsapp. Then permeates the media, then minds.

Exactly. And that's why AAP is so useful to them. They bring down all other governments by buying out MLAs but never AAP. Having an AAP type is important for that 24/60 math to work. It makes even 14/60 doable.

https://twitter.com/RB6188/status/1599344748598554624?t=QQvfTr66alV5eQYkQUhRIA&s=19

If you are one of those who wonders why your parents or uncle aunties who were never into politics or right wing thought are suddenly so pro-Modi, it is these Panna Pramukhs & Whatsapp groups that made it happen. In a proper targeted way. Just repeat repeat repeat. Starting small

By now the whole thing has snowballed into a heady mix of paranoia like there is a global anti India conspiracy and simultaneously collective delusion that Modi is very powerful in global politics. Keep repeating. Eventually it sinks in for many. They don't need majority.

I can see why sanghis would be upset at #BJPwillLoseGujarat trending. If you're a non sanghi hating on it with thoughts like "never happening, too far gone", you are useless to me. And you will be muted. I don't need that kind of short sighted whine on my TL.

An aunt of mine who was never really too much into politics became a Modi admirer in recent years. Not a full throated one. Nor a conflict seeking one trying to convince others. But she did genuinely start believing a lot of the stuff cos Whatsapp. Constant repetition.

And at one point she said "I respect and support PM Modi. But I don't like it when they keep insulting Nehru like that. I grew up in his years. I remember him. I liked him. He was not at all like what these forwards say." She was genuinely conflicted. So much cognitive dissonance

Nehru bashing a decade ago was restricted to Sandeep web type unhinged bigots. Not a constant theme in national politics. Modi with his constant repetition and attacks from his Whatsapp swarms has made a ghost into a villain.

Power of constant repetition.

The broader narrative that Gujarat is all saffron is propaganda. Last time Congress was with 8.6% of the BJP.

So literally just a 4% vote swing and #BJPwillLoseGujarat. At those small margins, every vote counts, every hashtag counts.

Precisely. The margins in closer seats are much closer. Even the swing of a few percent can be enough.

https://twitter.com/alokshinde/status/1599406244846260226?t=luCrCDNHeplQNL1lw7cnrg&s=19