Will Manidis Profile picture
Dec 5 6 tweets 2 min read
On Saturday night, a gunmen opened fire on two power transformers in North Carolina

The attack plunged 45,000 homes into freezing darkness.

This is the second sniper attack on a US power station-- the most important terror campaign you've never heard of. Image
The event is a sober reminder of the Metcalf Power Station attacks just a few years back

Where an unknown attacker opened fire onto the power station powering the entire Santa Clara Valley. That attack is still unsolved, with no motive or suspect.
in the months following the attack, the US gov ran a simulated attack on the electrical grid.

You can read the report below, but the results were terrifying.

A group of unskilled actors could easily disabled a majority of the US grid.

nerc.com/pa/CI/ESISAC/G… Image
While many recommendations from the GridEx report were implemented, the NC attack is a sobering reminder that our power grid still remains incredibly vulnerable.

So what do we know about the North Carolina attack?
Around 7pm-- two power stations were hit independently with gunfire.

The wooden gate leading to the substation were also cut open-- suggesting attackers possibly entered the site.
the FBI and state authorities are onsite-- but the human damage is done.

Without cell conductivity, wifi, or heat in sub freezing cold, the human damage of these attacks is already well underway. Image

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More from @WillManidis

Oct 25
I've never seen VCs make a bigger mistake than generative AI.

They are funding many projects that are destined to be abject failures.

Even worse, they are totally missing the places where ML will actually have impact and generate enterprise value.

Let me explain:
To be clear-- innovations in large language models and ML broadly are real. We've made a decade of progress in the last month alone.

I've been running a large language model company for four years now, I am not a skeptic. These things will change the world.
but, the fevered tone mirrors the same mistakes that they made around Web3 or the "Creator" economy.

You will not generate large enterprise value by making everyone a "creator". Giving everyone in the world the ability to generate Picasso paintings is worth very little.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 21
if i were an intelligence agency, and i was concerned my adversaries were using crypto to launder funds-- how would i stop that?

first i'd find the central casting idea of a tech founder-- mit dropout, finance, cargo shorts, long hair, sleeps on a beanbag kind of guy
then i'd stick him offshore and claim he's discovered an "arbitrage" on a forex market. the details don't matter, but it should require unauditable otc transactions and credibly add up to a couple billion bucks.

all that matters is its mildly believable and its not on chain
then i'd have him use those funds to build a very large crypto exchange. the goal here is to subsidize the thing until you see enough trading volume to see the state of the market at any moment.

only then you can start understanding how these "illegal war funds" are moving.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 15
In April, a team of cyberattackers attempted to breach an undersea cable off the coast of Hawaii.

The cable is part of a network that carries over 95% of the world’s data.

The attack is one of in a series of mysterious attacks on US infrastructure. Let's dig in. Image
Submarine cables are one of our most essential pieces of infrastructure. Hundreds of them are in operation ranging from just a few miles to over 10k miles.

These are the highways over which global information flows.

compromise one, and you have everything. Image
This is not the first time these cables have been in the news.

In the 1970s, the US learned that an undersea cable ran parallel to the Kuril Islands off the eastern coast of Russia, providing a communications link between two major Soviet naval bases Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 13
Freeport, one of the largest US plants exporting liquefied natural gas, exploded on Wednesday.

Freeport represents a critical piece of infrastructure in Europe's divestment from Russian oil. Yet this story is almost no where in the mainsteam news, so let's dig in. Image
Freeport is represents over 20% of US natural gas exports. A ten billion plus+ capex project, the plant processes two billion cubic feet a day of pipeline-quality natural gas.

the plant spits off $7.4b in revenue yearly. 80% of its shipments are direct to Europe. Image
As Europe attempts to divest from Russian oil, it becomes increasingly reliant on the constant stream of cargo ships from ports like Freeport.

LNG is the key to energy independence for western europe, and is crippled if we continue to lose infrastructure like freeport.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 6
On April 16 2013, a team of highly skilled gunmen opened fire on the Metcalf Power Substation in San Jose California.

In just under 10 minutes, they disabled 17 transformers and caused $15m in damages.

This is the most important terror attack you've never heard of. Quick thread Image
The PG&E Metcalf substation provides most of the Santa Clara Valley with power-- Facebook, Stanford, etc. are all on this grid.

The attackers are still unknown, they were never caught, and the motive is still unknown.
A timeline of the attack:

12:58 a.m. – fiber-optic lines were cut not far from U.S. Route 101 just outside south San Jose. The substation loses internet and phone service.

1:07 a.m. – Some customers lost service. Cables in its vault near the Metcalf substation were also cut.
Read 13 tweets

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