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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 28

The Pope being Pope. This line of reasoning is based upon a premise that Russian people may not be responsible for the Russian aggression. It's always someone else's fault, in this case - the fault of minorities

What is worse, Russian "liberal opposition" shares this conviction

Prediction: should the regime change and the "liberal opposition" take power, this will become the official narrative. Since Russian people/culture are blameless, liberals will declare minorities to be responsible both for Putinism and for Z-invasion

(they already do btw)

Potential regime change in Moscow will *not* mark the break with the official nationalism but rather its revival. New authorities will equate Putinism and minorities and then launch a crackdown on minorities picturing this as a "fight against Putinism"

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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 27

https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1596544741310857216

Well, most of modern Ukraine was either conquered or incorporated to Russia under Catherine II. She was probably the most aggressive ruler of the Russian Empire, not counting Peter I, and spent most of her reign in ambitious wars of expansion in the West and in the South

https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1596544741310857216

Age of Catherine is viewed as the Golden Age of the Russian Empire. Wars, conquests, luxury of St Petersburg. That was paid by incredible human misery. Economy-wise reign of Catherine was catastrophic: Catherine led Russia to the greatest economic contraction it had in the 18th c

Russian serfdom was continuously exacerbating since at least the 16th c. In 1600 it can be still characterised as "serfdom". By 1750 it turned into the New World-style plantation slavery: serfs were bought and sold individually at the slave auctions much like Blacks in Americas

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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 26

https://twitter.com/seanminuti/status/1596538411661549574

Rearmament of the Russian military industry based on the technological import from the West scaled up once Putin took power. Local peaks were reached around 2007 and 2013. Most recent escalation of import started in 2019 and continues till 2022 with the Covid interruption in 2020

https://twitter.com/seanminuti/status/1596538411661549574

This suggests that 2019 is when Russia probably started preparing for this war. The lockdown disruption of the supply chains might have delayed this war, but could not prevent it as in 2021 rearmament resumed again

Why peaks in 2007 and 2013? Well, in 2008 we had a global crisis and in 2014 Russian currency devaluated by half -> import became more expensive. So the rate of rearmament correlates with the general affordability of import. The more import we can afford the more equipment we buy

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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 26

https://twitter.com/Soachkache/status/1596293797712896001

You are not wrong. European companies provided Russian military producers that manufacture everything you just described and more with:

- hardware
- software
- training

to do their job. Now Europe will be paying its price for arming a malevolent power next to their borders

https://twitter.com/Soachkache/status/1596293797712896001

So yeah, with every year of this war Europe will be getting poorer and poorer. There is a non-zero chance of it becoming destitute, should the war last for long. And it will be 100% self-inflicted. Moreover, it is being self-inflicted right now as Europe continues to arm Russia

Actions have consequences. And arming a malevolent aggressive power next to your borders *does* have consequences. The more you arm it, the more aggressive it becomes, increasing the risk of a war that will impoverish your continent. Fuck around, and find out basically

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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 24

I think that the USG should explore the possibility of incentivising German, Italian, Austrian, Swiss, Taiwanese, Korean and Spanish companies to shut down their machines on Russian military plants that produce Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander and other cruise and ballistic missiles

I would add Japan and Czechia to the list but in their case I have a reason to believe their national governments are concerned about the role their industry is playing in arming Putin and are looking for ways to stop or minimise that. Still USG could help a lot in their case too

Contrary to the popular belief, Russian capacities for mass production of high precision components do NOT rely on Chinese import, but rather on import + training received from a handful of developed countries located in Western Europe and East Asia

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Kamil Galeev

@kamilkazani

Nov 23

On a highway leading from Chechnya to Dagestan there is a traffic light. It is always red. Every day thousands of cars have to drive through this 24/7 red light to pass from one region to another. This isn't a mistake, but a well-organised system. Look at the arc on the right 🧵

This monumental arc marks a checkpoint leading to the Hosi Yurt (now Akhmat Yurt) - the native village of Kadyrov. Akhmat Yurt is guarded all around its perimeter, much like any of Putin's residences. Only the natives of a village are allowed in

Honestly nowhere in Russia have I seen another place with such a concentrated aura of personal power. Security measures are really impressive: from the armed guard to the radio jammers. You can notice it when your mobile network stops working in a few kilometres from the village

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