The BIS paper on the ''$80 trillion of hidden US debt'' is making the rounds.
It's really important, and it deserves the attention of every macro investor.
A thread.
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Our monetary and credit system is USD-centric: the lion share of international debt, trade invoices, asset classes and FX volume is settled or denominated in US Dollars.
In a credit-based system the rest of the world also has an incentive to leverage in US Dollars...
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...to boost or enhance their global business models.That means European banks, Brazilian corporates or Japanese insurance companies which want to do global business will most likely get exposure to $-denominated assets and liabilities ($ debt).
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November in global macro was extremely interesting - let's dissect what happened and what might lie ahead.
A short thread.
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The picture below is a screenshot of the Macro section of my Volatility-Adjusted Market Dashboard (VAMD): in this case, it shows the rolling 30-days move across different macro asset classes.
Most importantly, it color-codes them based on the magnitude of the move.
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In other words: the darker the color, the bigger the move in standard deviation terms.
Let's have a look at the red boxes.
A) Yield curves flattened very aggressively both in Europe and in the US
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Let's refresh some of my forward-looking indicators to answer this pressing question.
A thread.
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First of all: shall we agree on what characterizes a recession in the first place?
While many refer to 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as the main signal for a recession, the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) instead looks at a wide array...
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...of real economic activity and precisely: real personal income and expenditures, employment, inflation-adjusted retail sales, and industrial production/corporate profits
In other words: it focuses on consumers, the labor market and corporate activity