Alf Profile picture
Dec 6 4 tweets 1 min read
Government deficit spending creates money for people.

Here is how:

(Short thread)
Let me anticipate some of the questions:

''Govt spending only creates money if the Central Bank is doing QE''

No, it's shown above.

In this case banks are buying bonds and still the private sector gets a net worth injection: assets (deposits) go up, and there is no liability.
''Yeh but what if banks are not buying bonds''

If the pvt sector is called to absorb bond issuance, then the newly created bank deposits (real-economy money) must be used to buy bonds, yes.

Rare case of govt spending being sterilized.
Money is literally the most misunderstood and yet most important concept in finance.

Central Banks print real-economy money: wrong
Banks lend/multiply reserves: wrong
Govt spending crowds out the private sector: wrong

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More from @MacroAlf

Dec 7
The BIS paper on the ''$80 trillion of hidden US debt'' is making the rounds.

It's really important, and it deserves the attention of every macro investor.

A thread.

1/
Our monetary and credit system is USD-centric: the lion share of international debt, trade invoices, asset classes and FX volume is settled or denominated in US Dollars.

In a credit-based system the rest of the world also has an incentive to leverage in US Dollars...

2/ Image
...to boost or enhance their global business models.That means European banks, Brazilian corporates or Japanese insurance companies which want to do global business will most likely get exposure to $-denominated assets and liabilities ($ debt).

3/
Read 23 tweets
Dec 3
December is always a good month for self-reflection.

This year has been really amazing for me, and I owe a lot to the FinTwit community for that.

1/
In Dec 2021 I left the financial industry and in particular my role as Head of Investments for a large European bank, and set up The Macro Compass.

The business model was: bespoke consulting for hedge funds and instutitional investors & try FinTwit out and see what happens.

2/
''What happens'' turned out to be incredible: I grew my account from 17,000 to 300,000+ followers in 11 months, and engaged with a lot of nice people.

I also saw its terrible side, tbh: personal insults, public slandering, threats - but I always chose to ignore hate...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 2
What the hell is going on with the US labor market?

A thread.

1/
US Non Farm Payrolls surprised on the upside.

The 3-month moving average in NFPs sits now at ~270k jobs, in line with the mid-2018 pace: the labor market was strong back then.

From peak job creation in 2021, the trend though is clearly down.

Most importantly...

2/ Image
...wage growth printed at almost 0.6% MoM in nominal terms.

As the chart below shows, the trend in wage growth is way too high to be consistent with 2% inflation inflation.

But why is wage growth remaining so stubbornly strong?

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 30
November in global macro was extremely interesting - let's dissect what happened and what might lie ahead.

A short thread.

1/
The picture below is a screenshot of the Macro section of my Volatility-Adjusted Market Dashboard (VAMD): in this case, it shows the rolling 30-days move across different macro asset classes.

Most importantly, it color-codes them based on the magnitude of the move.

2/
In other words: the darker the color, the bigger the move in standard deviation terms.

Let's have a look at the red boxes.

A) Yield curves flattened very aggressively both in Europe and in the US

3/
Read 12 tweets
Nov 26
We use money every day, and yet the functioning of our monetary system is still deeply misunderstood.

Without mastering the concept of money, connecting the dots in global macro is impossible.

Let's see how different forms of money impact the economy and markets.

A thread.

1/
There are two main different tiers of money: interbank money and real-economy money.

That's your easy way to think about what operations are (at least short-term) inflationary and which ones are asset-price-inflationary only.

Who prints interbank and real-economy money?

2/
Real-economy money is printed by governments and commercial banks.

If the govt spends more than it plans to collect taxes for, new money has been created.

Government spending (via deficits) increases the net worth of the private sector without adding a liability to it...

3/
Read 21 tweets
Nov 23
Yes, but Wen Recession?

Let's refresh some of my forward-looking indicators to answer this pressing question.

A thread.

1/
First of all: shall we agree on what characterizes a recession in the first place?

While many refer to 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as the main signal for a recession, the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) instead looks at a wide array...

2/
...of real economic activity and precisely: real personal income and expenditures, employment, inflation-adjusted retail sales, and industrial production/corporate profits

In other words: it focuses on consumers, the labor market and corporate activity

I share this approach

3/
Read 19 tweets

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