Thread by @alifstria

1/ A suicide bomber attacked the Astana Raya Police Station in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia today. A lot of things are up in the air right now, but here's a thread of what we know and what we suspect:

cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221…

2/ We know there was only one suicide bomb. A rumored second explosion turned out to be caused by calculated detonations by the bomb disposal team to remove any excess explosives in the area.

detik.com/jabar/berita/d…

3/ The BNPT suspects the suicide bomber to be a "lone wolf" linked to #JI or #JAD. This is a wild, almost oxymoronic statement – lone wolves by definition would not be linked to any group.

cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221…

4/ The suspected vehicle of the perpetrator had a note calling the newly passed #KUHP (Indonesian penal code) as kaffir – a creative attempt to mainstream the perpetrator's message to current discourse and discontent in Indonesia.

cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221…

5/ The Kapolri announced the perpetrator to be an ex-terrorist convict who participated in the 2017 Cicendo attack. This does point to shortcomings in Indo's post-prison CVE, but note that Indo's recidivism rate is 11.3% – concerning, but not alarming.

cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221…

6/ The Kapolri stated that the perpetrator did participate in a deradicalization program and was categorized as "red." This means that he was uncooperative and unreceptive to the process, despite participating in them nonetheless.

cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20221…

7/ The perpetrator was released after fully serving a 4-year sentence in LP Nusakambangan. This is crucial: being released w/o parole means that parole officers who are already understaffed would likely deprioritize monitoring his post-prison condition.

news.detik.com/berita/d-64479…