Thread by @pradip103

There was no concept of anti incumbency with PM @narendramodi at helm. But the quantum of victory & the complete demolition of Congress with BJP touching 157 speaks volumes about the enormous love that Gujarat& India has for PM Modi, which no honest data can judge! #Gujarat
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AAP was never a player in Gujarat with no takeoff vote, & expectedly had to land at 13-14% vote share. The low voting % was not due to BJP workers not coming out to vote, but Congress surrendering completely increasing the overall vote share of BJP to 53%. 2/n #GujaratResults

Himachal Pradesh saw 10-15 seats being decided in a margin of 1.5% vote, & independents receiving more than 10% votes, 'Pocket' votes polled by BJP Rebels in Himachal have defied every ground reading , & data that could be collected or reflected. 3/n #HimachalElectionResult

Delhi saw an un-precedented strategic voting of Muslims towards Congress reducing AAP from a base of 155 to 135. 7/9 INC councillors were Muslims. Proportion of INC increase was equal to the decrease of AAP. BJP maintained its near to similar vote in Delhi. 4/n #DelhiPollVerdict

Harsh Sanghvi winning Majura, Rivaba winning Jamnagar North, Hardik PatelVeeramgam, Alpesh leading, Jignesh leading,BJP winning 16/16( including Katagram) , 19/21 in Ahm all as per the ground trend of @jankibaat1 . Demolition of INC in Saurashtra has made BJP climb to 157. 5/n

Some factors go beyond the science polling & psephology , & can become unexpectedly over whelming in the result. 6/n #GujaratElectionsResults

Example 1: Rebels influencing strategic seats making INC climb in an unprecedented manner. INC vote share is not even .9% vote more than BJP, & .9% vote impacted 22% seats. No vote share seat share conversion, or any projection has mentioned it. #HimachalElectionResult

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Example 2: INC being demolished to 4 seats in Saurashtra is an outlier, which no honest data analysis & Psephological science can outrightly claim.Doing so makes u equate psephology to a dart board game which it is not. Giving extremes without a basis is nt science #Gujarat
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So what happened in this election, which every serious analyst who loves Indian politics, electoral science will admit, what defied the number range in bottom up Psephological science & data modeling? 9/n #GujaratElections

PM @narendramodi popularity defied all traditional 'pro incumbany landslide ,Tsunami ' projection definition possible in Gujarat. It's a historical first, & that's what is the beauty of Indian electoral process. It surprises you, & makes you smile. 10/n #GujratElection

Pocket voting by Rebels in Himachal at strategic booths & their overall impact leading to a diff of .8% bet INC & BJP impacting 22% seats. Even going by the standards of the state, it has no past precedent. Reasons of BJP loss in #Himachal are more internal than external.11/n

Finally, strategic voting by Muzlims towards Congress making it cut AAP votes by same proportion as the rise in INC vote. One of those 'rare' moments where Muzlims did not vote a party ( AAP in this case) tht could defeat the BJP( 39.09% +const) 12/n #DelhiMCDElection2022Results

This is why @jankibaat1 projections gave a clear mandate for AAP in Delhi, 3/4th majority to BJP in Gujarat, & slight edge to the BJP in HP. A very good election season to watch the majic of the Indian voter as a student of elections & people. #GujaratElectionsResults