𧡠The West is betting on Russia to be out of artillery shells soon.
The only public info on the production of artillery shells in Russia is that in 2017 they've produced 1.7M artillery shells. ~5K a day, ~150K a month.
The only public info on the production of artillery shells in Russia is that in 2017 they've produced 1.7M artillery shells. ~5K a day, ~150K a month.
This number however is a total # of all types (23-152mm) of shells produced and restored.
Often the bigger the product is the longer it takes to produce. Even if everything else is the same, logistics is harder. So, how could we estimate 122/152mm shells production?
Often the bigger the product is the longer it takes to produce. Even if everything else is the same, logistics is harder. So, how could we estimate 122/152mm shells production?
Let's look at the USA. According to the open-source information US produces 15M of 155mm rounds per month. Let's assume, Russia is able to produce same qty (too much respect for its industry in reality). It means ~500 shells a day. Let's double - 1K of 155mm and 122mm shells.
We should also take into account production process. We can assume that it takes less time to produce Russian shells due to fewer demands on their precision and technological processes (hot/cold stamping).
So, let's just double it again. 2K.
So, let's just double it again. 2K.
So, Russia is able to produce 2K, spending >10K a day now. According to some estimates their shells should be "over" in the spring of 2023. Meaning they'll be able to use only what they produce. 2K is nothing for unprecise Russian artillery.
This whole calculation and NATO-πΊπ¦ tactics may fall apart if Iran (and especially China) decides to sell its shells to Russia. Through other countries, w/o markings...
This is the tactics of demilitarization of Russia, not Ukrainian victory. That's why I don't like it as much.
This is the tactics of demilitarization of Russia, not Ukrainian victory. That's why I don't like it as much.
*15K, not 15M
And for those who believe Russia can double/triple production and can match US production speed, I have a video for you.
UK. BAE Systems. Almost fully automated factory (new facility). Production capacity is several 10K a year. All calibers combined.
UK. BAE Systems. Almost fully automated factory (new facility). Production capacity is several 10K a year. All calibers combined.
According to the most recent reports (UA and NATO). Russia is able to shoot ~24 rounds per barrel per day right now. This is the highest allowed usage for RU forces as well as the lowers number since the beginning of the invasion. These numbers are seen in Bakhmut.
On the rest of directions these numbers are even lower. If the estimates are correct, RU forces will be forced to strongly prioritize ammo distribution, lowering its usage in other directions. That's when all the fun will occur.
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